NC State Wolfpack basketball will play in the second round of the 2021 NIT Thursday at 7:00 p.m. against Colorado State on ESPN.

The Wildcats (19-6, 14-4 Mountain West) are coming off of a 75-73 win over Buffalo in the first round of the NIT, and the Wolfpack (14-10, 9-8 ACC) defeated Davidson 75-61 in its first-round contest.

Here are The Wolfpacker staff's game predictions for State's matchup with Colorado State:

This game has the makings of a coin-flip contest, but NC State appears to be the better team on paper.

KenPom has jumped back-and-forth. The analytics site originally predicted this game to be a draw, then switched its prediction to the Wolfpack by one before ultimately flipping to Colorado State by one.

This matchup opened as a pick-em in Vegas, but the oddsmakers seemed to have settled on the Pack as a -1.5 favorite as of Thursday morning.

Either way, it’s close. But there are a couple of glaring statistics that favor NC State in this contest.

The Wolfpack makes its money on turning teams over on the defensive end and converting those takeaways into points on the other end.

Colorado State turns the ball over on 19.8 percent of its offensive possession, which ranks 222nd among Division I squads. The Rams are turnover-prone, a weakness the Pack will be licking its chops to exploit Thursday night.

CSU has also benefited from some luck this season. The Rams’ opponents have shot just 63.8 percent from the free-throw line, which is the third-worst rate in the country.

Colorado State’s opponents have also committed a non-steal turnover on 11.9 percent of possessions, which is the 33rd-highest clip nationally.

CSU can rightfully claim credit for some of those turnovers considering it’s ranked 56th in adjusted defensive efficiency among Division I squads according to KenPom, but the Rams can’t help if their opponents produce unforced errors or miss freebies from the charity stripe.

On the other side of the coin, Colorado State ranks 29th nationally in effective field goal percentage (.546) and seventh in free throw percentage (.792).

NC State will need to continue its hot shooting from round one to survive and advance to the NIT semifinals.

After shooting a season-low 36.2 percent from the field in its loss to Syracuse in the ACC Tournament, the Wolfpack made a season-best 58.8 percent of its field goal attempts in the first-round win over Davidson.

Ultimately, the Pack will take advantage of an undersized and young Colorado State team by pounding the paint with its veteran bigs.

The Rams don’t have a single senior on their roster and just three upperclassmen total. CSU also ranks 316th nationally in average height (75.8 inches, which translates to just under 6-4).

NC State wins the unofficial “Battle of the Brews” and advances to the NIT Final Four because we all know New Belgium’s Old Tuffy is more refreshing than Old Aggie.

Prediction: NC State 72, Colorado State 59

Previous predictions:

ACC Game 1: NC State 79, UNC 75 (Actual: NC State 79-76)

ACC Game 2: NC State 87, Boston College 80 (Actual: NC State 79-76)

ACC Game 3: NC State 73, Clemson 71 (Actual: Clemson 74-70)

ACC Game 4: NC State 72, Miami 64 (Actual: Miami 64-59)

ACC Game 5: NC State 82, Florida State 77 (Actual: Florida State 105-73)

ACC Game 6: North Carolina 81, NC State 75 (Actual: UNC 86-76)

ACC Game 7: NC State 80, Wake Forest 71 (Actual: NC State 72-67)

ACC Game 8: NC State 75, Syracuse 72 (Actual: Syracuse 76-73)

ACC Game 9: Virginia 70, NC State 65 (Actual: Virginia 64-57)

ACC Game 10: NC State 77, Boston College 70 (Actual: NC State 81-65)

ACC Game 11: NC State 75, Syracuse 69 (Actual: Syracuse 77-68)

ACC Game 12: Duke 85, NC State 84 (Actual: Duke 69-53)

ACC Game 13: Pittsburgh 70, NC State 67 (Actual: NC State 74-73)

ACC Game 14: NC State 78, Wake Forest 67 (Actual: NC State 80-62)

ACC Game 15: Virginia 65, NC State 61 (NC State 68-61)

ACC Game 16: NC State 75, Pittsburgh 66 (NC State 65-62)

ACC Game 17: NC State 81, Notre Dame 76 (NC State 80-69)

Regular season picks: 10-7

ACC Tournament Game 1: NC State 76, Syracuse 71 (Cuse 89-68)

NIT Game 1: NC State 74, Davidson 73 (NC State 75-61)

As the resident Debbie Downer of the predictions page, it probably will make NC State fans uneasy to see my prediction.

To me, a lot of this matchup screams favorably towards the Wolfpack. I think it really boils down to a simple proposition. Can NC State shoot a good percentage against a statistically good defense?

Given the Wolfpack’s newfound approach during the season of operating inside-out and trying to score points in the paint, I think the odds are good. Where Colorado State has excelled is winning the three-point line, and that includes limiting opponents to just 30.3 percent beyond the arc (193 of 636).

However, teams are shooting just about 50.0 percent on two-point shot attempts, and NC State should have a size advantage in this game.

The one caveat is Colorado State has the potential to stroke it. Their season-long free throw percentage of 79.2 percent is eye-popping good, and they make on average 8.5 threes per game.

While I think NC State was clearly a better team than Davidson, I also believe the Wildcats missed some good looks that they probably felt like they should have made. The Pack will need to tighten up some on Colorado State’s jump shooters.

That said, I have NC State moving on to the Final Four of the NIT.

Prediction: NC State 76, Colorado State 66

Previous predictions:

ACC Game 1: UNC 79, NC State 70 (Actual: NC State 79-76)

ACC Game 2: NC State 78, Boston College 66 (Actual: NC State 79-76)

ACC Game 3: Clemson 79, NC State 76 (Actual: Clemson 74-70)

ACC Game 4: NC State 79, Miami 76 (Actual: Miami 64-59)

ACC Game 5: Florida State 79, NC State 76 (Actual: Florida State 105-73)

ACC Game 6: North Carolina 79, NC State 76 (Actual: North Carolina 86-76)

ACC Game 7: NC State 77, Wake Forest 71 (Actual: NC State 72-67)

ACC Game 8: NC State 69, Syracuse 66 (Actual: Syracuse 76-73)

ACC Game 9: Virginia 72, NC State 59 (Actual: Virginia 64-57)

ACC Game 10: NC State 74, Boston College 62 (Actual: NC State 81-65)

ACC Game 11: NC State 78, Syracuse 67 (Actual: Syracuse 77-68)

ACC Game 12: Duke 83, NC State 76 (Actual: Duke 69-53)

ACC Game 13: Pittsburgh 71, NC State 62 (Actual: NC State 74-73)

ACC Game 14: NC State 77, Wake Forest 71 (Actual: NC State 80-62)

ACC Game 15: Virginia 72, NC State 58 (NC State 68-61)

ACC Game 16: NC State 79, Pittsburgh 65 (NC State 65-62)

ACC Game 17: Notre Dame 79, NC State 73 (NC State 80-69)

Regular season picks: 10-7

ACC Tournament Game 1: Syracuse 75, NC State 70 (Cuse 89-68)

NIT Game 1: Davidson 77, NC State 72 (NC State 75-61)

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