Game predictions: NC State vs Florida State

NC State Wolfpack basketball continues ACC play against Florida State in Tallahassee Wednesday night at 6:30 p.m. on ACC Network.

The Wolfpack (6-3, 2-2 ACC) is coming off of a 64-59 loss to Miami, and the Seminoles (5-2, 1-1 ACC) lost to No. 12 Clemson 77-67 on Dec. 29.

Here are The Wolfpacker staff's game predictions for the Pack's matchup with the Seminoles Wednesday night:

As I noted in my column following the Miami game, it's too early to call tonight a must-win, but it sort of feels like one.

Not that NC State HAS to win tonight, but the Pack at least needs a strong showing in Tallahassee. And considering its recent second-half struggles, the Wolfpack could really gain confidence by showing some resiliency in late-game situations against a tough conference opponent on the road.

I fully expect to see an energized, motivated NC State team out of the gate, trying to prove it is better than what it showed on the court Saturday in a disappointing loss to Miami, which was without its top two returning scorers, in PNC Arena.

If the first nine games prove anything, the odds are good that the Wolfpack will take a lead into halftime, as it has in every contest this season.

Here are the two biggest questions: Can the Pack get shots to drop in the second half? And can NC State, a team that led the country in turnover margin nine days ago, limit mistakes on the offensive end?

The Wolfpack has turned the ball over more than its opponents in each of the past three games. The Pack was able to overcome that against Boston College on Dec. 30, but the turnovers came back to bite the team in its past two games.

Florida State has struggled to defend the perimeter in its first seven games. The Seminoles' opponents have shot 34.2 percent from the three-point line. They don't necessarily push teams off the perimeter, either. FSU's opponents have shot 41.1 percent of their field goal attempts from deep, which is the 267th-highest clip nationally.

The Noles have been able to turn opponents over on 21.8 percent of their defensive possessions, but they have also turned the ball over themselves on 19.2 percent of offensive possessions.

At least from a matchup perspective, NC State should be able to make threes tonight and win the turnover battle if it can just decrease some of the unforced errors.

Florida State's length could present problems, as it does to most teams in the country. Of the Seminoles' 10-man rotation, the shortest is 6-4, and seven of the players are 6-6 or taller.

The Pack will need to get creative with its lineups to handle that size. Maybe we see increased minutes for redshirt freshman Dereon Seabron, whose 6-7 frame could provide some help in defending the FSU backcourt.

After a head-scratching loss to Miami, I think the Wolfpack shows some grit tonight and plays well enough to beat the defending league champs on the road.

Plus, I don't know what to expect out of Florida State, which will be playing its first game in 15 days. The Noles could come out energized assuming its entire roster is available, but I think it's more likely they show the same rust most teams have after multi-week pauses.

Prediction: NC State 82, Florida State 77

Previous predictions:

ACC Game 1: NC State 79, UNC 75 (Actual: NC State 79-76)

ACC Game 2: NC State 87, Boston College 80 (Actual: NC State 79-76)

ACC Game 3: NC State 73, Clemson 71 (Actual: Clemson 74-70)

ACC Game 4: NC State 72, Miami 64 (Actual: Miami 64-59)

You know that I am going to pick the score to be 79-76. The question is, will it be the Pack or the opponent on top?

The early results suggest this FSU team is not as good as the one that won the ACC a year ago, and it is also coming off an extended COVID-19 related pause that means the Noles have yet to hit the court in the calendar year of 2021. Its last game was a 10-point loss against the same Clemson team that NC State nearly defeated before falling in overtime.

The FSU-Clemson game was tied with a little less than eight minutes left before the Tigers went on a decisive run, but more telling was the game prior to that when Gardner-Webb was trailing FSU by a single point with just seven minutes left. Gardner-Webb is currently 2-6 in the Big South Conference.

Florida State also trailed most of the second half on its way to a 12-point home loss to a Central Florida squad that is 3-3 overall and 1-2 in the American Athletic Conference.

In other words, prior to having to pause activities, in its last three games, FSU was not exactly playing its most inspiring basketball.

This is a winnable game, but I am hesitantly giving the edge to the Noles mainly because in the past decade NC State has won just once in Tallahassee in six trips. Leonard Hamilton's team is usually athletic and long, and that sometimes tends to be a tough matchup for the Wolfpack. Couple that with the game location, and I have Florida State winning.

Prediction: Florida State 79, NC State 76

Previous predictions:

ACC Game 1: UNC 79, NC State 70 (Actual: NC State 79-76)

ACC Game 2: NC State 78, Boston College 66 (Actual: NC State 79-76)

ACC Game 3: Clemson 79, NC State 76 (Actual: Clemson 74-70)

ACC Game 4: NC State 79, Miami 76 (Actual: Miami 64-59)

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