Game predictions: NC State vs Wake Forest

NC State Wolfpack basketball continues ACC play against Wake Forest Wednesday night in PNC Arena at 8 p.m. on ACC Network.

The Wolfpack (6-5, 2-4 ACC) will attempt to end a four-game losing streak following an 86-76 road defeat to North Carolina Saturday. The Demon Deacons (4-6, 1-6 ACC) are coming off their first conference win this season, a 76-75 home victory over Pittsburgh Saturday.

Here are The Wolfpacker staff's game predictions for State's matchup with Wake Forest Wednesday night.

This is a must-win game for NC State.

Does that mean a loss would make an NCAA Tournament bid impossible for the Wolfpack? No. There is still a lot of basketball to be played.

But the Pack needs a win tonight to gain confidence entering a deciding stretch of its season. A loss to what should be the worst team in the ACC would be a devastating blow.

There are no moral victories but after a second watch, NC State's performance in Chapel Hill Saturday was encouraging in some ways after a 10-day COVID-related break despite the loss.

Without question, the defense needs work. The Pack's last two opponents have averaged 95.5 points per game. But that is solvable with a now-healthy roster that is able to practice together as an entire unit as long as it can keep the virus out of its locker room.

NC State's offense was able to put up 76 points against an improved North Carolina defense with just six three-point makes and 12 points in transition.

Wake Forest has done a good job of pushing its opponents off of the perimeter on defense, but the Demon Deacons have an ACC-worst 22.3 offensive turnover percentage in league play.

The aggressive Wolfpack defense should be able to get back to its intended identity: forcing turnovers and converting those opportunities into fast-break points.

Expect strong offensive performances from fifth-year senior forward DJ Funderburk and redshirt sophomore center Manny Bates tonight. Wake's tallest player in its 10-man rotation is 6-9, and the Demon Deacons' defensive 57.1 two-point field goal percentage in league ranks last in the ACC.

Not to mention, Bates should be able to rack up some rejections on the defensive end coming off of a seven-block game against the Tar Heels. 12.8 percent of the Deacons' offensive possessions have resulted in a blocked shot, which ranks 335th nationally.

If State can force 15+ turnovers, capitalize on those takeaways in transition and feed the post in half-court sets, tonight has the making of a much-needed get-right game for the Wolfpack.

Wake Forest will play tough coming off of its first conference win and keep it close in the first half, but the Pack will take care of business in the second half as long as it plays with urgency.

The four-game losing streak, the longest the program has had under head coach Kevin Keatts, should come to an end tonight.

Prediction: NC State 80, Wake Forest 71

Previous predictions:

ACC Game 1: NC State 79, UNC 75 (Actual: NC State 79-76)

ACC Game 2: NC State 87, Boston College 80 (Actual: NC State 79-76)

ACC Game 3: NC State 73, Clemson 71 (Actual: Clemson 74-70)

ACC Game 4: NC State 72, Miami 64 (Actual: Miami 64-59)

ACC Game 5: NC State 82, Florida State 77 (Actual: Florida State 105-73)

ACC Game 6: North Carolina 81, NC State 75 (Actual: UNC 86-76)

Justin says my habit of picking games to be 79-76 is getting annoying, so I will forego that prediction (if only because Justin brings up a good point that people may stop reading my picks).

NC State’s back is against the wall. I do believe that in its four-game losing streak, there has been an element of bad luck on timing. Clearly, it was not the right time to be playing Florida State and UNC, both on the road.

It also caught Clemson on the tail end of a strong stretch in which the Tigers had wins over Florida State, Mississippi State, Purdue, Maryland and Alabama. Those wins over the Crimson Tide and FSU are a pair of top 16 teams in the rankings, and Purdue is still receiving votes.

There’s still no good explanation for what happened at home against Miami.

That’s also not to say NC State has played well and just fallen short. While that was the case at Clemson, it has not been the justifiable excuse for the last three defeats. NC State simply fell short of standards in those games.

That brings us to Wake Forest, a team that was hit incredibly hard by a COVID-19 outbreak in December and then a brutal ACC schedule in January: at Georgia Tech, at Virginia, at Duke, home vs. Louisville and Virginia Tech, then at UNC before finally breaking through over the weekend in a surprising win against Pittsburgh.

Despite going 1-6 in that stretch, a Wake Forest team generally picked to finish in the bottom of the ACC has held up more competitively than people might have expected.

With less than 14 minutes remaining it trailed Virginia by just two points. It was tied with Duke with less than 12 minutes left. Against Louisville, it trailed by a single point with 12 minutes to go. The Deacons ended up losing all three by double-digits in misleading scores.

With a minute left in a four-point loss to the Hokies, Wake was down by just two points and a defensive stop away from potentially tying or taking the lead. At UNC, the game was tied with 10 minutes left before Chapel Hill pulled out a seven-point victory.

Thus, this is a Wake team that’s better than its record and not playing bad basketball going into the NC State contest.

That leaves me to believe there is no reason not to expect a tight game in the second half. Truthfully, a score like 79-76 might make some sense, but I’ll digress.

I have NC State winning in a game that will be decided in the final four minutes.

Prediction: NC State 77, Wake Forest 71

Previous predictions:

ACC Game 1: UNC 79, NC State 70 (Actual: NC State 79-76)

ACC Game 2: NC State 78, Boston College 66 (Actual: NC State 79-76)

ACC Game 3: Clemson 79, NC State 76 (Actual: Clemson 74-70)

ACC Game 4: NC State 79, Miami 76 (Actual: Miami 64-59)

ACC Game 5: Florida State 79, NC State 76 (Actual: Florida State 105-73)

ACC Game 6: North Carolina 79, NC State 76 (Actual: North Carolina 86-76)

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