Game predictions: NC State vs Duke

NC State Wolfpack basketball continues ACC play Saturday against Duke at 4:00 p.m. on ESPN.

The Blue Devils (7-8, 5-6 ACC) are coming off of a 93-89 loss to Notre Dame Tuesday, and the Wolfpack (8-8, 4-7 ACC) lost to Syracuse 77-68 in its last game.

Here are The Wolfpacker staff's game predictions for State's matchup with Duke:

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice... you know how the rest of it goes.

I've been fooled many times this season picking NC State's games. While I've decided to take a glass-half-full approach to most of my predictions, my optimism has worn off.

The Pack's second loss to Syracuse Tuesday night is what did it for me.

Don't get me wrong, I knew the Wolfpack's season was trending in the wrong direction after the head-scratching loss to Miami in early January. But it's the embarrassment from incorrectly picking State to beat the Orange not once, but twice that has prompted me to take a different tone for this one.

NC State had its chances against Syracuse in both meetings. The Pack looked better in the Carrier Dome than it did in PNC Arena this week, but the way it lost was awfully similar to the first meeting. Too many mistakes, too little consistency for 40 minutes, and ultimately, the inability to make shots down the stretch were the culprits in both cases.

Duke enters this game in a similar fashion as the Wolfpack. State has lost seven of its last nine, and the Blue Devils have dropped six of their past eight contests. Both are desperate for a win. Neither will be dancing in March short of an unlikely run in the ACC Tournament.

And NC State has had plenty of success against its ACC rival from Durham in PNC Arena. The Pack is 2-0 against the Blue Devils in Raleigh under head coach Kevin Keatts, and it's won five of the last seven meetings against Duke at home.

But typically there are 19,000+ Wolfpack fans providing an electric atmosphere to give State a lift over the Blue Devils, who are traditionally ranked in the Top 10. Saturday will be just the second meeting between the two schools since 1996 that Duke is unranked. The other was in 2016, and the Blue Devils won that meeting 88-80 in Cameron Indoor Stadium.

On paper, this game is a coin flip. I anticipate this one going down to the wire, and the victor will be the team that makes fewer mistakes in crunch time. Neither fan base can say it's confident in its team to close out a tight contest.

Considering the 50-50 nature of this matchup, I'm going to give the slight edge to the Blue Devils.

Prediction: Duke 85, NC State 84

Previous predictions:

ACC Game 1: NC State 79, UNC 75 (Actual: NC State 79-76)

ACC Game 2: NC State 87, Boston College 80 (Actual: NC State 79-76)

ACC Game 3: NC State 73, Clemson 71 (Actual: Clemson 74-70)

ACC Game 4: NC State 72, Miami 64 (Actual: Miami 64-59)

ACC Game 5: NC State 82, Florida State 77 (Actual: Florida State 105-73)

ACC Game 6: North Carolina 81, NC State 75 (Actual: UNC 86-76)

ACC Game 7: NC State 80, Wake Forest 71 (Actual: NC State 72-67)

ACC Game 8: NC State 75, Syracuse 72 (Actual: Syracuse 76-73)

ACC Game 9: Virginia 70, NC State 65 (Actual: Virginia 64-57)

ACC Game 10: NC State 77, Boston College 70 (Actual: NC State 81-65)

ACC Game 11: NC State 75, Syracuse 69 (Actual: Syracuse 77-68)

In a difficult and challenging year for the men’s basketball team, sometimes it’s fun to remember some pleasant past experiences. One such example of a nice stroll down memory lane would be the recent home series against rival Duke:

• Last year, the Wolfpack dismantled the sixth-ranked Blue Devils in Raleigh, 88-66. The Pack started on a 10-1 run and led by double-digits for the remainder of the contest when it went up 25-13.

At one point, NC State led by 27 points and was flirting with giving Duke its first 30-point loss in 30 years before settling for the biggest win over by a non-ranked team over a Mike Krzyzewski-coached Duke squad.

• In 2018, head coach Kevn Keatts squad had started ACC played with back-to-back lopsided road losses, but then Keatts gained his first ACC win by stunning No. 2 Duke, 96-85. Torin Dorn’s four-point play with 1:06 left put the Wolfpack up 91-80 in front of a frenzied PNC Arena.

• In 2015, once again facing a second-ranked and still undefeated Duke team, NC State made 10 of 16 three-pointers, and center BeeJay Anya had one of the best games of his career with a stat line of 14 points, six rebounds and four blocks off the bench against Duke star freshman center Jahlil Okafor.

That Duke team would win the national title.

• Two years prior to that game, top-ranked Duke traveled to face No. 20 NC State in Raleigh in a highly-anticipated showdown. The Blue Devils had the early edge at 27-19, but NC State would control the action after that by going on a 14-2 run. Forward C.J. Leslie had 25 points and big man Richard Howell had 16 points and 18 rebounds in what would be an 84-76 win Pack victory, sparking a famous postgame court-storming.

• In 2010, in what would be one of the final big wins of head coach Sidney Lowe’s tenure, NC State dominated much of the action, at one point leading No. 7 Duke 69-52, before cruising home to an 88-74 triumph, led by forward Tracy Smith’s 23 points. The Wolfpack shot 58.2 percent from the field.

Ironically, that Duke team won a national title, too.

The Wolfpack has won 5 of 7 games at home against Duke, all against top-10 ranked opponents and also against Coach K’s last two national champions.

This Duke team is unranked, below-.500 and nowhere near a NCAA Tournament appearance, and it’s coming in on a three-game losing streak. Under normal circumstances, with a full crowd behind them and a healthy roster, NC State would be a solid favorite.

Alas, the Wolfpack is an underdog, and one of the reasons why it was fun to relive some of the past history against the Blue Devils is because I fear a bad result for NC State on Saturday.

Prediction: Duke 83, NC State 76

Previous predictions:

ACC Game 1: UNC 79, NC State 70 (Actual: NC State 79-76)

ACC Game 2: NC State 78, Boston College 66 (Actual: NC State 79-76)

ACC Game 3: Clemson 79, NC State 76 (Actual: Clemson 74-70)

ACC Game 4: NC State 79, Miami 76 (Actual: Miami 64-59)

ACC Game 5: Florida State 79, NC State 76 (Actual: Florida State 105-73)

ACC Game 6: North Carolina 79, NC State 76 (Actual: North Carolina 86-76)

ACC Game 7: NC State 77, Wake Forest 71 (Actual: NC State 72-67)

ACC Game 8: NC State 69, Syracuse 66 (Actual: Syracuse 76-73)

ACC Game 9: Virginia 72, NC State 59 (Actual: Virginia 64-57)

ACC Game 10: NC State 74, Boston College 62 (Actual: NC State 81-65)

ACC Game 11: NC State 78, Syracuse 67 (Actual: Syracuse 77-68)

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