Game predictions: NC State vs Boston College

NC State Wolfpack basketball continues ACC play against Boston College in PNC Arena tonight at 8 p.m. on ACC Network.

The Wolfpack is 5-1 and opened ACC play last Tuesday with a 79-76 win over then-ranked No. 17 North Carolina, marking the first home win over the Tar Heels since 2013. Boston College is 2-5 overall and 1-0 in the ACC but is coming off of a 78-62 win over Maine on Dec. 22.

Here are The Wolfpacker staff's game predictions for the Pack's matchup with the Eagles tonight:

After coming within one point of the final score in last Tuesday’s 79-76 NC State win over North Carolina in the Pack’s ACC opener, some of our loyal readers started asking me to predict other various outcomes in life.

Can you give me some lottery numbers? What stocks should I buy? Will 2021 bring better fortunes than this cursed year we’re nearing the finish line of?

Unfortunately, I don’t know all the answers, and I’m afraid my game predictions can only disappoint from here on out. Which brings us to our theme of the day. Disappointment.

Weathered Wolfpack fans don’t care that NC State is a 9.5-point favorite tonight against the 2-5 Boston College Eagles. They know all too well that the Pack is notorious for letting one slip after an emotional win in a big rivalry game.

Shoutout to Joe Giglio of The OG on 99.9 The Fan in Raleigh for having the perfect Yellow Pad stat for this situation. NC State is a combined 4-21 in games following a win over North Carolina or Duke since 1991.

The good news for Wolfpack fans? Two of those wins came under head coach Kevin Keatts. He’s had more success in these hangover games than any other Pack coach in the past three decades.

In his first three seasons with the program, Keatts is 2-1 in games following a win over one of the local rivals in blue. Compare that to a combined 0-7 record from the past two coaches, Mark Gottfried and Sidney Lowe, and Wolfpack Nation should feel a little better about tonight.

NC State should win this game. KenPom gives State an 82 percent chance of victory tonight, the second-best odds of the remaining 18 scheduled conference contests in the 2020-21 regular season.

There’s no such thing as an easy win in the ACC. Boston College may be 2-5, but the Eagles have played one of the toughest non-conference schedules in the country. All five of BC’s losses have come against top 100 KenPom teams, four of which have been top 30.

The Eagles lead the ACC in three-point attempts this season (198) and rank third in the conference with nine makes from beyond the arc per game.

That will be one area of the game to watch, as NC State has done a good job of forcing teams off of the perimeter. The Pack’s opponents have shot just 25.9 percent of field goal attempts from three, which ranks fifth nationally.

There is a chance that the Wolfpack could return more of its players tonight in fifth-year senior forward DJ Funderburk and freshman center Ebenezer Dowuona. That should give State a boost considering how thin its frontcourt depth has been without those two guys in the lineup.

Even if the Pack only has 10 scholarship players available once again, I still predict NC State will find a way to end 2020 with a win before beginning its toughest stretch of the season in January.

I don’t forecast a blowout, however. Boston College was completely embarrassed 101-63 in its ACC opener on Dec. 12 but has only played once since, a 16-point win over Maine on Dec. 22.

The Eagles should come out with their heads on fire, scratching and clawing to get their first conference victory before a daunting 10-day stretch that includes scheduled meetings with Louisville, Duke and Virginia.

NC State will continue to force turnovers at a high clip, however, and will stretch the game into a double-digit lead at some point in the second half. Boston College will make a couple of late threes to cover the spread, but the Wolfpack holds on to enter 2021 with a 2-0 conference record.

Prediction: NC State 87 Boston College 80

Previous predictions:

ACC Game 1: NC State 79, UNC 75 (Actual: NC State 79-76)

This is going to be a challenging year to figure out in the ACC, especially given all the stop and go action we are going to see with teams going on pause and games repeatedly postponed.

But a few things are clear. The biggest development is that the ACC lacks a headliner. Anyone who saw Gonzaga whack Virginia, the same Cavs team that was the preseason ACC favorite and lost a non-conference game against San Francisco (granted, that San Fran team is actually pretty good), knows there is no heavyweight in the conference this season.

It is also clear that there are some teams that NC State should probably beat under any circumstances, and a home contest against Boston College is one such example.

The Eagles’ lone wins this year have been a five-point victory over Rhode Island on a neutral floor and a 16-point win over Maine at home in its most recent outing.

To be fair, BC’s five losses have all come against teams from the power conferences of college basketball, which I include the Big East among, and some of them were close. Among them were a four-point loss on a neutral setting to St. John’s and an overtime defeat at a pretty good and ranked Minnesota team that just defeated Saint Louis.

But it also lost by 20 points to Florida (again, on a neutral court) and by a whopping 38 points at home to Syracuse.

The Eagles have a duo of intriguing sophomores in guards Wynston Tabbs and Jay Heath and forward CJ Feder, and senior forward Steffon Mitchell long ago established himself as a good defender and rebounder in the ACC, but the overall talent level just isn’t there.

NC State traditionally has not been very good coming off wins over UNC or Duke, as Justin noted via Joe Giglio's yellow pad. Between coaches Les Robinson, Herb Sendek, Sidney Lowe and Mark Gottfried, the Pack was 2-20 in such games.

Kevin Keatts, however, is 2-1, and the one setback was to a very good Florida State team that won the ACC last season. After demolishing Duke on Feb. 19, NC State lost a competitive six-point affair to the Seminoles three days later.

I’m more worried about rustiness than hangovers in this game, but BC has that same potential issue seeing how it has played just once since Dec. 12. Ultimately the Pack will prevail by double-digits.

Prediction: NC State 78, Boston College 66

Previous predictions:

ACC Game 1: UNC 79, NC State 70 (Actual: NC State 79-76)

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