Game predictions: NC State vs Miami

NC State Wolfpack basketball continues ACC play against Miami in PNC Arena Saturday at noon on RSN.

The Wolfpack (6-2, 2-1 ACC) is coming off of a 74-70 road loss to No. 19 Clemson in overtime, and the Hurricanes (4-5, 0-4 ACC) lost to North Carolina 67-65 on Tuesday, Jan. 5.

Here are The Wolfpacker staff's game predictions for the Pack's matchup with Miami this weekend:

There's a big difference between 3-1 in 2-2.

NC State will have one of those records in ACC play after Saturday afternoon's contest against Miami.

The Hurricanes had high hopes entering the season but find themselves scraping to find their first conference win after losing their past three contests by two points or less.

The U was picked to finish seventh in the preseason ACC media poll but has underperformed in the absence of its senior guard and preseason first-team All-ACC selection Chris Lykes, who has been out with an ankle injury since Dec. 4.

Lykes isn't the only significant contributor that has caught the injury bug this year. Senior guard Kameron McGusty, senior forward Elijah Olaniyi and freshman guard Earl Timberlake have all missed at least four of the U's nine contests.

McGusty and Timberlake should be back in the lineup Saturday, and I expect Miami to play with its hair on fire to avoid going winless a quarter of the way into league play.

The Wolfpack, however, should be able to match that intensity. The last thing the Pack wants is to drop to 2-2 in the ACC, needing a road win in Tallahasee next week to stay above .500 in conference competition.

The Hurricanes are a good defensive team and should have a slight advantage on the boards against the Pack, but Miami has really struggled on offense.

That makes for a bad matchup against an aggressive Wolfpack defense that forces a lot of turnovers. With multiple veteran injuries in the backcourt, the Hurricanes have turned the ball over on 20.6 percent of their offensive positions, which ranks 225th nationally.

Compare that to NC State, which ranks 10th nationally with a 26.3 defensive turnover percentage. The Pack has lost the turnover margin in its past two games, however.

I anticipate head coach Kevin Keatts' squad will make the turnover margin an area of emphasis Saturday as it looks to get back on the right track.

Miami will keep it close and may even take a small lead into halftime, but the Pack will win the second half for the first time in conference play this season. NC State finds a way to separate itself in the final minutes and makes some late-game free throws to win by three possessions.

Prediction: NC State 72 Miami 64

Previous predictions:

ACC Game 1: NC State 79, UNC 75 (Actual: NC State 79-76)

ACC Game 2: NC State 87, Boston College 80 (Actual: NC State 79-76)

ACC Game 3: NC State 73, Clemson 71 (Actual: Clemson 74-70)

Personally, I thought Miami was destined to take a jump this year. I am a big fan of senior point guard Chris Lykes, plus senior guard Kameron McGusty established himself last year.

Throw in the valuable experiences that sophomore guards Isaiah Wong and Harlond Beverly received while thrown into the fire, the Hurricanes seemed like the ideal candidate to be a surprise in the conference.

You have to feel for head coach Jim Larranaga, who for the last few seasons has seemingly caught few breaks on the health front, and that continued this year. Senior big man Sam Waardenburg was hurt before the season began, and then the team lost 7-footer Rodney Miller, who was forced into action last year, when he went down in December. Lykes has only played two games, and McGusty just five.

In short, this is a Miami team that is shorthanded.

Who knows what the Wolfpack will see when it takes the court on Saturday, but my feeling is this is a game NC State should win. Both teams will be highly motivated, but this is a Miami team that does not shoot particularly well, has a tendency to turn it over and is not strong on the boards.

I think this will be the first game that the Wolfpack will have a little bit of daylight by the end of the game, but I won't show that in my formal prediction until NC State actually does that.

Prediction: NC State 79, Miami 76

Previous predictions:

ACC Game 1: UNC 79, NC State 70 (Actual: NC State 79-76)

ACC Game 2: NC State 78, Boston College 66 (Actual: NC State 79-76)

ACC Game 3: Clemson 79, NC State 76 (Actual: Clemson 74-70)

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