Game predictions: NC State vs North Carolina

NC State Wolfpack basketball begins ACC play tonight against arch-rival No. 17 North Carolina in PNC Arena at 7 p.m. on ACC Network.

The Wolfpack is 4-1 through its five-game non-conference slate while the Tar Heels are 5-2 with their two losses coming against Iowa and Texas, who are both ranked in the AP Top 10.

Here are The Wolfpacker staff's game predictions for the Pack's conference opener:

Tonight's anticipated opener will come down to which team is able to capitalize on its strengths more effectively than the other.

For the Wolfpack, that would entail speeding up North Carolina's youthful backcourt, forcing turnovers at a high clip and converting those opportunities into transition points. The Pack has forced a turnover on 30.3 percent of its possessions, which ranks third nationally, while Carolina's 21.8 offensive turnover percentage ranks 235th among Division I teams and last in the ACC.

UNC will have no problem running the floor and keeping pace with NC State if the Pack is effective in speeding up the game, but the Tar Heels will have a clear advantage in half-court situations considering their depth in the frontcourt.

At this point, Wolfpack fifth-year senior forward DJ Funderburk and freshman point guard Cam Hayes are "game-time decisions" according to what college basketball insider Jon Rothstein heard from a source this morning.

The Pack will have a much better chance to win tonight if those guys, who both averaged over 19 minutes per game in the first three contests, are able to take the court.

Assuming Funderburk is unable to go, however, the Wolfpack would have just one player listed at 6-10 or taller, redshirt sophomore center Manny Bates (6-11). North Carolina on the other hand has six players listed at 6-10 or taller, including three that average at least 18 minutes per contest in ACC preseason Player of the Year and senior forward Garrison Brooks, sophomore forward Armando Bacot and freshman forward Day'Ron Sharpe.

Carolina's size has made it, once again, one of the best rebounding teams in the country. The Heels rank top 15 nationally in total rebounds per game, offensive rebounds per game, rebounding margin and offensive rebounding percentage.

Compare that to NC State, who has been outrebounded in three of its first five contests, including a 53-26 margin in the lone loss to Saint Louis, and the battle of the boards presents a real mismatch between the two teams.

Another important element will be perimeter shooting. Despite its inconsistencies in the past two contests, NC State has actually been quite good beyond the arc early this season. The Wolfpack has made 37.7 percent of its three-point attempts, which is good for 52nd nationally and third in the ACC.

Comparatively, North Carolina has been inconsistent from deep. The Heels have shot just 26.6 percent from behind the three-point line, which ranks 295th in the country and second-worst in the ACC.

If the Wolfpack can create turnovers, shoot effectively from the perimeter and limit the number of offensive rebounds and second-chance opportunities UNC gets, the Pack should be in good shape to start the conference schedule 1-0. If Carolina is able to dominate the boards, create half-court situations and take care of the basketball, Roy Williams' record in PNC Arena will likely get even better.

Assuming NC State is limited to the same nine players it has had in the last two contests, all logic would suggest that UNC would be able to dominate the offensive glass en route to victory. But this is the second-to-last game left in 2020, a year that has continuously defied all logic.

Why be a Scrooge around this time of the year? This is no typical Carolina-State game. The ravenous Wolfpack faithful won't be in PNC Arena to heckle Williams and his Tar Heels, who somehow have found a way to play spoiler time and time again.

This rivalry typically doesn't start until January, a few games into conference play. Like NC State, tonight will be the conference opener for the Tar Heels. UNC has lost three of its past four opening road ACC games.

The Wolfpack will spread the Christmas spirit early tonight. I suspect an energized NC State team to force several first-half turnovers and take a lead into the locker room. Some big shots down the stretch by senior guards Braxton Beverly and Devon Daniels will allow the Pack to hang on, handing Keatts his first home win against North Carolina.

Prediction: NC State 79 UNC 75

Justin did an excellent job of breaking it down analytically, and I'll just say I agree with just about all of it.

From my viewpoint, NC State's best chance is for there to be a large disparity on the three-point line, and that's going to require the Pack to shoot much better than it has the past couple of games after it emerged from a COVID-19-related hiatus.

Roy Williams always seems to coach four things well: forcing tempo, dominating the boards, winning the foul disparity and, in the one element specifically related to this game, beating NC State.

I want to focus on that last point a bit more. For whatever reason, I believe there is a mental block that NC State has when it faces UNC. The reality is that only once in Williams' tenure in Chapel Hill has the Wolfpack had a better team that enforced its will on an outmanned UNC squad.

Those scenarios have not happened often, mind you, over the years, but it has been set up multiple times that way, and all but once, when NC State steamrolled UNC in the first half of a 2013 game at PNC Arena, did the Wolfpack take advantage.

The other wins over Williams have had an element of flukiness to it, like Alerik Freeman going off on threes, or UNC going ice cold in scoring its least amount of points ever at the Dean Dome, or the Pack seemingly not missing a shot (truthfully shooting 60.5 percent) in the debut of Sidney Lowe's red blazer.

Conversely, I think there is a supreme confidence on UNC's part that when they see the Wolfpack. It's almost as if their response is simply, "We got this." Like last year when a short-handed UNC team in the midst of its awful season upset NC State in the PNC on its way to sweeping the Wolfpack.

Truthfully, I also believe that rebounding and foul troubles for the Pack are also far more likely to come into play than three-point shooting and turnovers.

Thus call me the Scrooge, but I have the Heels winning.

Prediction: UNC 79, NC State 70

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