Game predictions: NC State at North Carolina

NC State Wolfpack basketball continues ACC play against North Carolina in Chapel Hill Saturday at 2 p.m. on ESPN.

The Wolfpack (6-4, 2-3 ACC) will play its first game in 10 days and last lost to Florida State 105-73 on Jan. 13. The Tar Heels (9-5, 4-3 ACC) are coming off of an 80-73 win over Wake Forest on Wednesday.

Saturday will mark the second meeting between the two rival schools this season. The Pack defeated Carolina 79-76 in Raleigh on Dec. 22.

Here are The Wolfpacker staff's game predictions for State's matchup with UNC Saturday:

Making a final score prediction for this game is as challenging as trying to correctly pick winning Powerball numbers.

There are so many unknowns entering this matchup.

Will the Wolfpack come back rusty or energized after a 10-day pause that was preceded by a three-game losing streak?

Can North Carolina's freshman guards Caleb Love and RJ Davis continue shooting the ball at an efficient clip after seeming to find a rhythm in January?

Will NC State redshirt sophomore center Manny Bates be available to play after an ankle injury sidelined him in the Pack's last game at Florida State?

That last question may be the most important variable for this particular matchup. Bates is the Wolfpack's tallest player at 6-11, and his presence on the defensive end is crucial against a big, physical and talented Tar Heels frontcourt.

Bates scored 14 points, grabbed seven rebounds and blocked five shots in the Pack's 79-76 win over UNC in December.

“He was able to go to some individual workouts the last couple of days,” Keatts said Friday. “We're going to try to throw him into some live action today and kind of see how he does. A lot of that will determine whether he's in the game tomorrow or not. He had a grade two ankle sprain that was pretty good, and one of the biggest things that we battled with him is trying to keep the swelling down.”

If Bates is able to go, that would certainly help NC State's chances, but the Pack will need strong contributions from its backcourt too.

The Wolfpack made 47 percent of its three-point attempts and forced 18 Carolina turnovers in the first meeting. Efficient perimeter shooting and winning the turnover margin will be key if NC State wants to claim its first season sweep over the Heels since 2003.

Could the 10-day break be exactly what the doctor ordered to correct the Pack's early-January struggles? Possibly.

After all, Florida State shot 70 percent from the field against the Wolfpack after the Seminoles hadn't played in 15 days. Maybe NC State is due for an out-of-this-world shooting performance.

More times than not, however, teams across the country have struggled in their first game back following an extended pause.

Considering North Carolina has won four of its last five and seems to be trending in the right direction in January while the Pack enters this game with no momentum to speak of, logic seems to suggest the Heels will get their revenge in Chapel Hill.

UNC head coach Roy Williams has never lost to NC State twice in the same season since returning to the program in 2003-04.

This crazy season does seem ripe to break that trend. After all, it's the first time since 1961 that North Carolina, Duke and Kentucky are not ranked in the AP Top 25.

Predicting the Pack will leave Chapel Hill with the season sweep because of this year's volatility just seems like wishful thinking, however.

State plays with confidence and puts on a good performance, but I see UNC winning this one.

Prediction: North Carolina 81, NC State 75

Previous predictions:

ACC Game 1: NC State 79, UNC 75 (Actual: NC State 79-76)

ACC Game 2: NC State 87, Boston College 80 (Actual: NC State 79-76)

ACC Game 3: NC State 73, Clemson 71 (Actual: Clemson 74-70)

ACC Game 4: NC State 72, Miami 64 (Actual: Miami 64-59)

ACC Game 5: NC State 82, Florida State 77 (Actual: Florida State 105-73)

Last time out I predicted a UNC win, NC State prevailed. So keep that in mind when you get down to my official pick.

NC State is a program that is in need of some mojo. A win over UNC would be just that. I just have my doubts that it can happen.

It sounds like even if redshirt sophomore center Manny Bates plays, you have to wonder how effective he might be coming back from what head coach Kevin Keatts acknowledged was a grade 2 ankle sprain that has had issues with swelling. Losing Bates against UNC would be a difficult challenge to overcome as the Heels have arguably the deepest and most talented group of post players in the ACC.

The conventional wisdom is that this UNC team is playing better than the one the Pack faced a month ago. I'm not wholly sure I buy that. Its wins included buzzer-beaters at home to Notre Dame and at Miami. They did play well in beating Syracuse at home and competitive in a loss at Florida State, but they were not inspiring in their home win over Wake Forest earlier this week.

UNC has the looks of a classic NCAA Tournament bubble team. NC State prior to its three-game losing streak looked like a team that could compete near the top of the ACC. In its last two games, it came across as an NIT, at best, squad.

Thus this is an important game for both squads. I give UNC the edge because they have been playing, and NC State has not. I am of the belief that favors the team not coming off a pause.

Prediction: North Carolina 79, NC State 76

Previous predictions:

ACC Game 1: UNC 79, NC State 70 (Actual: NC State 79-76)

ACC Game 2: NC State 78, Boston College 66 (Actual: NC State 79-76)

ACC Game 3: Clemson 79, NC State 76 (Actual: Clemson 74-70)

ACC Game 4: NC State 79, Miami 76 (Actual: Miami 64-59)

ACC Game 5: Florida State 79, NC State 76 (Actual: Florida State 105-73)

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