Game predictions: NC State at Clemson

NC State Wolfpack basketball continues ACC play at No. 19 Clemson in PNC Arena tonight at 7 p.m. on ACC Network.

The Wolfpack (6-1, 2-0 ACC) is coming off of a 79-76 win over Boston College on Dec. 30, and the Tigers (8-1, 2-1 ACC) beat Miami on the road 66-65 on Jan. 2.

Here are The Wolfpacker staff's game predictions for the Pack's matchup with Clemson tonight:

NC State has a big opportunity tonight.

The Wolfpack is off to a 2-0 start in ACC play and has a chance to advance to a 3-0 conference record for the first time since 2012-13 with a win over Clemson.

A victory in Littlejohn Coliseum, which would mark head coach Kevin Keatts' first road win over the Tigers, would also put the Pack at No. 1 in the league standings, for now.

It won't be easy. Clemson is currently tied for the highest-ranked team in the ACC along with Virginia Tech at No. 19 in the AP Top 25 Poll. And NC State could be without starting redshirt sophomore center Manny Bates, who injured his left knee in the Boston College game and is considered a game-time decision tonight.

Whether Bates plays or not, the Pack will need to find a way to slow down Clemson's leading scorer and rebounder, senior forward Aamir Simms.

Simms is a pick-and-pop big that is a 50 percent three-point shooter and does a little bit of everything for the Tigers. He averages 13.1 points, 5.7 rebounds and 2.2 assists per game and is currently an early-season frontrunner for ACC Player of the Year.

Speaking of POY candidates, the Wolfpack did a nice job of shutting down the preseason ACC Player of the Year Garrison Brooks in the 79-76 win over North Carolina in the Pack's conference opener.

Simms presents a slightly different challenge than Brooks, but it's worth noting how effective NC State junior forward Jericole Hellems' defense was in holding Brooks to just 10 points on 5-of-14 shooting two weeks ago.

The Pack will need another strong defensive performance from Hellems, who will likely be tasked with guarding Simms for a majority of the night, particularly if Bates is out.

NC State and Clemson are currently the ACC's two best teams in turnover margin. The Wolfpack leads the NCAA with an average turnover margin of +8.6 while the Tigers rank second in the conference and 20th nationally with an average turnover margin of +5.0.

For the first time this season, the Pack lost the turnover margin (16-15) in its last game against Boston College. NC State always makes creating turnovers a priority, but I expect greater urgency in forcing takeaways tonight in a high-stakes matchup.

I've seen several comments from NC State fans on social media and the message boards claiming the Pack "needs Manny" to win tonight. There is no question that Bates makes this team better every night, but I don't think his availability is a prerequisite for victory against the Tigers.

Clemson isn't a particularly big team and is comparable to the Wolfpack on the boards. I'd feel much better about picking the Pack if Bates is a go, but I'm making my prediction with the assumption that Keatts plays it safe and sits his elite shot-blocker.

Without Bates, everyone else on the Pack roster will need to step up on the defensive end and the bigs will need to stay out of foul trouble.

Fifth-year senior forward DJ Funderburk should be in even better shape than he was in his impressive 21-point performance in 30 minutes against Boston College in what was his first game back in nearly a month.

Hellems, who has unofficially become Keatts' third "big," has been more consistent on the defensive end than on offense in the first seven contests this season. His defensive contributions will be crucial tonight, and I think he rises to the occasion as he did against the Tar Heels.

After a poor perimeter shooting night against BC a week ago, NC State will get back to the scoring efficiency that has made it the ACC leader in field goal percentage (49.2%).

Clemson, who leads the conference in defensive field goal percentage (38.6%), will make that tough, but senior guard Braxton Beverly will bounce back from a cold shooting night last Tuesday and make some big shots in the second half.

Also, freshman guard Cam Hayes seems due for another big game after a hot start this season before he was sidelined for three weeks in December. He looked sharp in limited minutes against UNC but struggled against Boston College. Expect him to find more time on the floor tonight against a Tigers team that goes 10-deep.

I realize Clemson is a basketball school now, but I'm taking the underdog.

Prediction: NC State 73 Clemson 71

Previous predictions:

ACC Game 1: NC State 79, UNC 75 (Actual: NC State 79-76)

ACC Game 2: NC State 87 Boston College 80 (Actual: NC State 79-76)

Want to know a venue that has been a thorn in NC State's side over the years that may surprise you? Try Clemson's Littlejohn Coliseum.

In the last 10 games at Clemson, the Pack has won just twice, one of those coming on a last-second three-pointer from Scott Wood in 2013. It's almost like Clemson on the road in basketball ranks with Wake Forest on the road in football as curiously cursed venues for the Wolfpack.

(Of course, if you look at some of the recent losses Clemson has suffered to NC State, they may wonder if there is a curse on the Tigers, perhaps for winning the football game in 2016 that potentially saved their national title season.)

If NC State were to lose Tuesday night, it would not be a surprise. Heck, it's even the expectation. To Clemson head coach Brad Brownell's credit, he's built a solid if unspectacular program. With the exception of two years, his teams finish around .500, give or take a game or two either way, in the ACC.

This year's team is a little bit better than solid. It has wins already over Alabama, Florida State, Maryland, Miami, Mississippi State and Purdue, and it's one loss is at a ranked Virginia Tech team by just five points.

The hunch here is that returning seven of the top nine scorers on a pretty balanced team that went a respectable 9-11 in the ACC is paying dividends, especially when the best player is one of the ACC's finest in senior forward Aamir Simms. Also, in a year where there are going to be a stream of disruptions, having that much familiar experience can be a huge asset.

Considering this is a good team at a venue that has proven to be tough on NC State over the years, I am taking the Tigers in this one. I am also picking every game to be 79-76 for the foreseeable future.

Prediction: Clemson 79, NC State 76

Previous predictions:

ACC Game 1: UNC 79, NC State 70 (Actual: NC State 79-76)

ACC Game 2: NC State 78, Boston College 66 (Actual: NC State 79-76)

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