The Wolfpacker game predictions: Liberty at NC State

NC State Wolfpack football is 5-3 on the season, all of it ACC action, while Liberty is undefeated at 8-0, including road wins over ACC members Syracuse and Virginia Tech. The Flames have climbed to No. 21 in the Associated Press poll.

This is just the third time all season NC State has been favored. The line stands at 3.5 points for the Wolfpack as of Thursday morning.

The Wolfpacker staff makes their guesses on the game's outcome:

First, can I get a pat on the back for last week? I called a 38-20 Wolfpack win, and NC State prevailed 38-22. Does it get much better than that?

Now that I have gotten my annoying bout of arrogance out of the way, down to the business of nailing yet another pick. However, I must admit, this one is much trickier to figure out.

This is the last dynamic offense that NC State will probably face this season, and thus far the young Wolfpack defense has struggled to defend high-level offenses. Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, UNC and Miami all put up 40-plus points on NC State, and unsurprisingly the Pack is just 1-3 in those games.

Also a common denominator in those four contests: junior safety Tanner Ingle, a crucial component in the defense and one of the team captains, practically did not play in those games. The lone exception was Wake Forest, where he was in for all of two snaps.

The good news is that Ingle is back for Saturday, hence why he was made available to the media this week. They will need him to defend Liberty star quarterback Malik Willis, a legitimate Power Five signal-caller who is only playing for the Flames because he lost a close quarterback competition at Auburn to Bo Nix.

Willis has the potential to win a game like Miami's D'Eriq King did for the Hurricanes when they rallied from a 10-point fourth-quarter deficit to defeat the Wolfpack on Nov. 7.

The bet here is that Liberty is going to try to shorten the game and limit possessions, so getting Willis and the Flames off the field on third downs will be paramount. I suspect that the Pack offense, provided it is not turning the football over, should be able to move and score.

I give the Wolfpack a slight edge, mainly because while Liberty has its version of King in Willis, I'm not sure the Flames have their version of the veteran, speedy receiving corps that Miami possessed. That may be the difference in the outcomes.

Prediction: NC State 38, Liberty 35

Previous predictions:

Game 1: NC State 27, Wake Forest 17 (Actual: NC State 45-42)

Game 2: NC State 34, Virginia Tech 30 (Actual: Virginia Tech 45-24)

Game 3: Pittsburgh 34, NC State 23 (Actual: NC State 30-29)

Game 4: NC State 34, Virginia 30 (Actual: NC State 38-21)

Game 5: NC State 29, Duke 21 (Actual: NC State 31-20)

Game 6: UNC 42, NC State 27 (Actual: UNC 48-21)

Game 7: Miami 27, NC State 20 (Actual: Miami 44-41)

Game 8: NC State 38, Florida State 20 (Actual: NC State 38, Florida State 22)

After an 0-4 start in my rookie season of Wolfpack football game predictions, I've gone 4-0 in the last four contests.

This NC State team has exceeded preseason expectations this fall, and I hope my recent success means that I've finally figured out the Pack.

Now the Wolfpack enters its fifth game this season against an opponent ranked in the AP Top 25. All three of its losses in 2020 have come against teams that were nationally ranked at the time, but it did defeat the then-ranked No. 24 Pitt Panthers at Heinz Field in October.

Liberty is undefeated through eight contests, including two victories over ACC opponents Virginia Tech and Syracuse. Now the Flames look to get their third win over an ACC opponent this fall and their first against NC State in program history.

Liberty ranks in the top 20 among FBS in several statistical categories, including total offense (18th), defense (14th) and time of possession (16th). On paper, it would seemingly make more sense for the Flames to be favored against the Wolfpack this Saturday.

But Vegas knows best, and it has NC State as a 3.5-point favorite at the time of writing this.

The key in this game will be stopping Liberty dual-threat quarterback Malik Willis, who leads the team in passing and rushing yards. He has 15 touchdowns passes and just one interception through seven contests. He's also found the end zone nine times on the ground.

The Wolfpack struggled to stop a similar mobile quarterback in Miami's D'Eriq King two weeks ago in Carter-Finley Stadium, but I suspect the defense learned a lot in that game.

NC State has built up confidence since its bye week. The Pack lost a heartbreaker to then-No. 11 Miami after the open date, then followed with a lopsided 38-22 victory over Florida State last Saturday.

I anticipate NC State will find a way to limit Willis by forcing him to beat them through the air. I also predict the Wolfpack will get another strong performance out of redshirt junior quarterback Bailey Hockman and will do just enough in the run game to advance to 6-3 in a shootout.

Prediction: NC State 41, Liberty 31

Previous predictions:

Game 1: Wake Forest 29, NC State 26 (Actual: NC State 45-42)

Game 2: NC State 30, Virginia Tech 27 (Actual: Virginia Tech 45-24)

Game 3: Pitt 30, NC State 20 (Actual: NC State 30-29)

Game 4: Virginia 38, NC State 35 (Actual: NC State 38-21)

Game 5: NC State 45, Duke 38 (Actual: NC State 31-20)

Game 6: UNC 38, NC State 35 (Actual, UNC 48-21)

Game 7: Miami 31, NC State 23 (Actual: Miami 44-41)

Game 8: NC State 45, Florida State 28 (Actual: NC State 38, Florida State 22)

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