The Wolfpacker game predictions: NC State at Virginia Tech

Virginia Tech originally opened up as a 11-point favorite at home against NC State, but the odds have trended towards the Wolfpack since then. As of Thursday morning, the line had shrunk to seven points.

Will NC State start the year 2-0 overall and in conference play, or will the Hokies begin its 2020 campaign victorious at the Pack's expense?

The Wolfpacker staff makes their guesses.

First, I'd like to begin my prediction by rehashing what I wrote last week in projecting the outcome of the Wolfpack opener against Wake Forest:

"My prediction: a fired-up Wolfpack team starts strong and then holds on through some anxious moments. I have NC State winning, 27-17."

I was off on the score, but I should gain some points for being spot on about the flow of the game, and given how poorly I did at times last year in making these predictions, I'll take the kudos when I can get them.

I also expect a fired-up Virginia Tech team on Saturday. David Teel is as well-tuned into collegiate sports in the state of Virginia as anyone, and he noted to us that the Hokies were "more than a little frosted" about some of the perceptions they have endured due to the COVID-19 issues dealt with in Blacksburg.

This was a Virginia Tech team that was supposed to be a real serious contender to win the ACC's Coastal Division. Now it faces many question marks, including what the actual roster will look like.

Virginia Tech head coach Justin Fuente noted Monday during his weekly press conference that he will not have a full roster Saturday. One could suggest he is playing a version of coaching mind games, but his body language hinted at a worn-out, exhausted coach from having to deal with the fallout of positives tests and contact tracing quarantines.

I'm going to take Fuente at his word, and I suspect that Virginia Tech will be amped up early but fade late due to roster shortcomings, allowing a NC State squad that has a game under its belt and more time removed from its own COVID-19 cluster to pull out a late win, 34-30.

Previous predictions:

Game 1: NC State 27, Wake Forest 17 (Actual: NC State 45-42)

You're welcome, NC State fans.

Last week, I picked the Deacs to squeak out the victory by three in a game I thought would go to overtime. Correct point differential, wrong team. Funny how that works.

Like Matt did above, I'll attempt to save face. When Wake Forest took possession at its own 24-yard line down a field goal with 2:25 remaining in the fourth quarter, many Pack fans probably thought my prediction of overtime would become true.

Instead, NC State made a defensive stand that included back-to-back sacks by two transfers making their Wolfpack debuts: redshirt junior linebacker Vi Jones and graduate defensive end Daniel Joseph. Both sacks pushed back the Wake offense six yards and forced a fourth-and-21 that the Deacs were unable to convert.

While I was correct in predicting the Pack would land the first couple of punches (led 14-0 midway through the first quarter), I was incorrect in my prediction that Wake Forest would show more poise in the crucial stretches late in the game. Saturday proved this NC State team is not the same one from last fall.

Shifting to the Virginia Tech game this Saturday in what will be the Wolfpack's first road contest of 2020, I'm going to stick with the same logic as last week.

The main reason I picked Wake Forest last week was due to NC State's practice disruptions in late August that left the team without its full roster leading up to game week. The pause was so impactful, the team announced an hour before kickoff that redshirt junior Bailey Hockman would start over the redshirt sophomore Devin Leary, who was listed as QB1 in the game one depth chart. It was explained after the game that Leary had missed 20 days due to quarantine, enough time to prevent him from being ready for the opener.

Applying that logic to this game, Virginia Tech is now the team facing its COVID-19 rough patch while NC State has seemingly reached the other side of its own pandemic-related issues. The Wolfpack was responsible for pushing this game back from its originally scheduled date of Sept. 12, but the Hokies admitted after the fact they likely would not have been able to play the game and later had to postpone their game with Virginia that was supposed to be played last Saturday.

Virginia Tech head coach Justin Fuente admitted in his availability this Monday that the team would not have its full roster this Saturday. To put the roster situation in perspective, that comment came after Fuente said he was "hopeful" the game could even be played.

Considering how good NC State's offense looked in the season opener combined with the fact that the Hokies won't be at full strength and have yet to play live reps at game speed this fall, I like the Wolfpack to get its first win in Lane Stadium since 2004.

NC State 30-27.

Previous predictions:

Game 1: Wake Forest 29, NC State 26 (Actual: NC State 45-42)

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