The Wolfpacker game predictions: NC State at Pittsburgh

Home-team Pittsburgh is a solid two-touchdown favorite over NC State Saturday at Heinz Field.

The Panthers are 3-0 on the season and ranked No. 24 nationally. It has notched ACC wins over Syracuse and most recently Louisville. NC State (1-1, 1-1 ACC) meanwhile is trying to rebound after a lopsided setback at Virginia Tech, 45-24, last weekend.

The Wolfpacker staff makes their guesses on the game's outcome.

I should have known better than to brag about accurately projecting how the game played out against Wake Forest when making my prediction for at Virginia Tech. I was off by a mile last week.

So, with more humility, here goes my prediction.

On paper, it is not a good matchup for NC State. The one thing the Pack has done best this year is run the football, but Pittsburgh is, statistically, one of the best teams in the country at stopping the run. Thus it is likely the Pack will have to air it out some against a defense that leads the country with 17 sacks. Did I mention NC State gave up six sacks to Virginia Tech?

I don't think it'll be a repeat of what happened in Blacksburg. Virginia Tech did have a distinct advantage in planning for the game since it was their opener and the Wolfpack had already played a contest. I believe VT took full use of that edge, and Pittsburgh won't have that luxury.

Plus, I'm not sure Pittsburgh is the type to blow out teams. Its offense is efficient, but thus far it has not proven to be explosive against ACC competition. Of course, NC State's defense has not exactly been the stiffest around the league.

For the Wolfpack to have a chance, it'll need to score early and make it a four-quarter game. I'm afraid for NCSU this is a tall order, but I see a more respectable showing and with potential reasons for optimism going forward emerging after the game. Pitt wins, 34-23.

Previous predictions:

Game 1: NC State 27, Wake Forest 17 (Actual: NC State 45-42)

Game 2: NC State 34, Virginia Tech 30 (Actual: Virginia Tech 45-24)

Look, I’m 0 for 2 on my game predictions this year, so bare with me.

In the first game, I was unsure of what NC State team we would see considering the offseason disruptions, the turnover on the coaching staff and the new-look offense. In week two, I didn’t know what to expect from Virginia Tech for essentially the same reasons.

This week, however, we know what to expect from Pittsburgh and we think we know what to expect from the Pack.

The Panthers will give the NC State offense its toughest test of the season Saturday with arguably the nation’s best defensive unit. Pitt ranks among the country's top two in rush defense, top three in forced turnovers and pass defense, and has the highest-graded overall defense in Division I according to Pro Football Focus.

Granted, NC State will most likely be the most explosive offense Pittsburgh has seen thus far this fall. Something will have to give.

While the Pack rush offense against Pitt’s run defense will offer an enticing strength-on-strength matchup, I think the battle between NC State’s defense against the Panthers offense will weigh heavier on the outcome of the game.

The Wolfpack have to find answers against the run. Through two games, NC State has allowed 231.5 rushing yards per game, 64th among the 72 FBS teams that have played and last in the ACC. Pittsburgh leans toward a run-heavy offense with a 54 percent usage rate. The Pack will have to stop the run if it wants to pull the upset.

NCSU losing its two leading tacklers from last season hurt in game two. We know linebacker Payton Wilson will be ready to go and the team is “hopeful” of safety and team captain Tanner Ingle’s return.

I expect to see a faster start from NC State this week in a game that should be close at halftime. To come home with the win, the Pack will need to figure out a way to get around Pitt’s stout second-half defense. Through three games, the Panthers have only allowed three points after the break, while they have shut out opponents in the fourth quarter.

The Wolfpack defense will have its best performance of the year thus far. The offense will play well against arguably the best defense in the country. But Pittsburgh is trying to make its case as the second-best team in the ACC and will remain undefeated this weekend. Pitt wins, 30-20.

Previous predictions:

Game 1: Wake Forest 29, NC State 26 (Actual: NC State 45-42)

Game 2: NC State 30, Virginia Tech 27 (Actual: Virginia Tech 45-24)

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