The Wolfpacker game predictions: Miami at NC State

NC State Wolfpack football is 4-2 on the season, all of it ACC action, while Miami is 5-1 overall and 4-1 in ACC. Both teams are coming off byes.

The 11th-ranked Hurricanes are 10.5-point favorites. Can NC State spring an upset and notch its second top-25 win of the year?

The Wolfpacker staff makes their guesses on the game's outcome:

I truly believe this game is winnable, and if I were a betting man I'd be very tempted to take the Wolfpack and the points.

Admittedly, I was skeptical about NC State's chances at UNC on paper, and it played out to the worst-case scenario.

I think NC State and Miami are more evenly matched, even if the Hurricanes have a higher ranking in the polls than the Heels did. That's partially because, I believe, Miami has had a nice set-up on its schedule that afforded an opportunity for the Hurricanes to be in its current position. Credit to Miami for taking advantage of that.

I foresee a game that remains competitive into the fourth quarter, but ultimately my chief concern for the Pack is, can it score enough against a pretty good Miami defense? That puts a lot of pressure on the left arm of redshirt junior quarterback Bailey Hockman (or potentially the right arm of freshman signal-caller Ben Finley).

I think it's going to take the offense a couple of games to find a rhythm with whoever it is at quarterback, and that is what makes this matchup tough to pick NC State to pull off the upset.

Therefore, I have Miami winning, 27-20.

Previous predictions:

Game 1: NC State 27, Wake Forest 17 (Actual: NC State 45-42)

Game 2: NC State 34, Virginia Tech 30 (Actual: Virginia Tech 45-24)

Game 3: Pittsburgh 34, NC State 23 (Actual: NC State 30-29)

Game 4: NC State 34, Virginia 30 (Actual: NC State 38-21)

Game 5: NC State 29, Duke 21 (Actual: NC State 31-20)

Game 6: UNC 42, NC State 27 (Actual: UNC 48-24)

Good things happen for the Wolfpack in night games on non-Saturdays in Carter-Finley Stadium.

Under head coach Dave Doeren, NC State has gone 4-3 in non-Saturday home night games, which includes a 1-1 record against ranked opponents. The lone ranked loss was against No. 3 Clemson in Doeren’s first season in 2013. The win was more recent, a 39-25 victory over No. 17 Louisville in 2017.

Like Miami, the Cardinals also featured an elite dual-threat quarterback in Lamar Jackson. Jackson was a Heisman Trophy winner and went on to become the MVP of the NFL last season.

Expectations aren’t as high for Miami fifth-year senior quarterback D’Eriq King, but the 5-11, 202-pounder has been solid in six games for the Hurricanes this fall.

King could present problems for the Wolfpack defense that is coming off of a 48-21 loss to Chapel Hill 13 days ago in which it allowed the Tar Heels to rush for 326 yards. That’s never a recipe for success.

But coming off of its worst performance of the season may give us the wrong impression of this NC State team’s true identity.

Without redshirt sophomore quarterback Devin Leary, this isn’t the same team that can throw for 336 yards and four touchdowns in a 30-29 road win over Pittsburgh. It’s also not fair to paint this team as one that can’t stop the run, despite allowing over 314 rushing yards in each of its two losses.

As long as redshirt junior quarterback Bailey Hockman can prevent turning the ball over against Miami’s ferocious pass rush and offensive coordinator Tim Beck can find a way to get running backs sophomore Zonovan “Bam” Knight and junior Ricky Person Jr. going, the Wolfpack should be able to control time of possession enough to pose an upset bid.

The biggest question will be how does NC State’s defense respond after a disappointing performance against archrival UNC in which it missed 27 tackles?

I suspect the Pack will do a better job of wrapping up and getting Miami’s skill players on the ground, but I’m not sure the Wolfpack offense will be able to keep pace with the Hurricanes for four quarters without Leary.

Miami 31, NC State 23

Previous predictions:

Game 1: Wake Forest 29, NC State 26 (Actual: NC State 45-42)

Game 2: NC State 30, Virginia Tech 27 (Actual: Virginia Tech 45-24)

Game 3: Pitt 30, NC State 20 (Actual: NC State 30-29)

Game 4: Virginia 38, NC State 35 (Actual: NC State 38-21)

Game 5: NC State 45, Duke 38 (Actual: NC State 31-20)

Game 6: UNC 35, NC State 35 (Actual, UNC 48-24)

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