The Wolfpacker game predictions: Duke at NC State

For the first time this season, NC State Wolfpack football appears to be a favorite for a game. Vegas has State favored by 4.5 points over Duke (as of Thursday morning).

The Blue Devils (1-4, 1-4 ACC) have struggled as they reach the halfway point of the season, but makes the short trip to Raleigh having just won its first game of the season, a 38-24 triumph at Syracuse. NC State (3-1, 3-1 ACC) is sitting just outside the top 25 in the polls after back-to-back road wins at Pittsburgh and Virginia.

The Wolfpacker staff makes their guesses on the game's outcome:

As the father of a growing-way-too-fast eight-year-old, I am learning a lot about maturity.

As the coach of 100-plus 18-23 year olds, Dave Doeren, himself the father of three, is about to find out a great deal about maturity as well, specifically on this team that skews on the younger side.

Only one senior played on defense for NC State Saturday in that win at Virginia, and that was a reserve defensive lineman (tackle Val Martin). Technically, since the NCAA has frozen eligibility for the fall and now the winter, this is a free year for everyone on the roster and all would be allowed back in 2021, if they choose. But even if that was not the case, NC State is set to return a significant chunk of its roster after this campaign.

However, most of those that have played have not experienced sustained success. While it is true that the Pack had back-to-back nine-win seasons in 2017 and 2018, the truth is that only a handful of players, like senior receiver Emeka Emezie and fifth-year offensive lineman Joe Sculthorpe, were a part of that.

Last year was the first extensive playing experience for the majority of the core of the 2020 football team, and the 2019 season was a miserable campaign.

Now NC State is 3-1, feeling good and within votes of reaching the top 25. A win Saturday against Duke very well could get NCSU into the rankings. Perhaps more so, looming after Saturday is the biggest game on the schedule: at archrival UNC, who is ranked in the top 5 nationally by the Associated Press (and No. 6 by the coaches) at the moment.

Duke, meanwhile, does not jump off the paper. It lost its first three games by an average of over 17 points and used a field goal as time expired to avoid a double-digit loss at home to Virginia Tech. But there is no denying that the loss to the Hokies was an improvement, and then came a win at Syracuse.

This screams potential trap game, which might explain why the betting line is a little closer than I originally anticipated. However, ultimately, I think NC State simply proves to be a better team and emerges with a 29-21 win.

Previous predictions:

Game 1: NC State 27, Wake Forest 17 (Actual: NC State 45-42)

Game 2: NC State 34, Virginia Tech 30 (Actual: Virginia Tech 45-24)

Game 3: Pittsburgh 34, NC State 23 (Actual: NC State 30-29)

Game 4: NC State 34, Virginia 30 (Actual: NC State 38-21)

Last week confirmed it, I’ve officially found a pattern in my picks.

As I said in the Virginia game predictions, I picked the Cavaliers not because I didn’t think the Pack would take care of business but rather due to the fact that I didn’t want to jinx the wolves:

“I ultimately see this game as a toss-up that should be a high-scoring affair between two capable offenses. I don't doubt NC State can do what it needs to in order to win Saturday, but I don't want to jinx the Wolfpack. I'd rather keep being wrong, so I'm taking Virginia 38-35.”

Success. 4-0 in my personal record book and 0-4 in the actual tally. I’ve found a way to predict the opposite outcome in the first four games.

But we’re not talking about a toss-up game this week. We’re talking about a home matchup the Pack should win against a team that has turned the ball over 19 times in five games. You read that correctly. The Blue Devils have five more turnovers than any other team at the FBS level.

Entering the week, I figured I would keep the good mojo going for the Wolfpack and put my voodoo magic to work against the Blue Devils by picking them.

After watching Duke’s film all week, however, I feel confident that NC State does not need any luck to win this game. At least, it shouldn't. The Pack is the better team and it simply needs to execute in its first game back at Carter-Finley Stadium since the season opener. That takes maturity, something that this team has displayed over the past two weeks.

The Blue Devils have some nice pieces. It has three upperclassmen edge rushers that are capable of causing problems in the backfield. It has two productive running backs that each ran for over 150 yards against Syracuse last Saturday.

And I’m still not ready to throw Clemson transfer redshirt junior Chase Brice in the trash. He is to the ACC this season what Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston was to the NFL in 2019.

Brice turns the ball over, a lot. Eight interceptions and six fumbles in five games. Ouch.

But he does make it interesting by moving the ball down the field quite effectively. He’s currently third in the FBS in total passing yards and has thrown for at least 200 yards in every game. Don't ever forget that head coach David Cutcliffe knows a thing or two about the quarterback position.

Overall, however, NC State is the superior team. It has proven it can win in multiple ways, something Duke has yet to show. The Pack needs to win the turnover battle and it needs to protect redshirt sophomore quarterback Devin Leary.

I also expect sophomore running back Zonovan “Bam” Knight to have a monster game against the team he formerly committed to before signing with the Pack. Bam gets 150 all-purpose yards and the “Takeaway Bone” gets pulled out at least three times Saturday afternoon.

If I'm wrong, I'll go back to what works. NC State 45-38.

Previous predictions:

Game 1: Wake Forest 29, NC State 26 (Actual: NC State 45-42)

Game 2: NC State 30, Virginia Tech 27 (Actual: Virginia Tech 45-24)

Game 3: Pitt 30, NC State 20 (Actual: NC State 30-29)

Game 4: Virginia 38, NC State 35 (Actual: NC State 38-21)

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