The Wolfpacker game predictions: NC State at Virginia

Home-team Virginia is a nine-point favorite over NC State Saturday in Scott Stadium.

The Cavaliers (1-1, 1-1 ACC) won their season opener against Duke at home 38-20, but lost at No. 1 Clemson 41-23 Saturday. NC State (2-1, 2-1 ACC) meanwhile is coming off of a confidence-building 30-29 road win over No. 24 Pittsburgh.

The Wolfpacker staff makes their guesses on the game's outcome:

I see this as a barometer game for NC State.

A win, especially if coupled by a Virginia Tech victory at North Carolina in Chapel Hill on Saturday, would show that this is, frankly, a pretty good Wolfpack squad that can potentially have a nice season.

The above scenario would lead one to believe that perhaps there are justifiable reasons to explain what happened in a lopsided loss at Blacksburg to the Hokies. Under this hypothetical, the most true picture would be what NC State would have done in the other three contests.

With a loss, then a clear theme emerges: which NC State team are we going to get from week to week? A lot of that may depend on the nature of said defeat. A close, competitive game against a respected Virginia team that has looked decent in its first two games would be nothing to scoff at, but a lopsided repeat of what happened at Virginia Tech would provide some headaches when trying to figure out who NC State really is.

What I saw at Pittsburgh from the Wolfpack looked like a good football team. What I saw after the game from players on social media and then in subsequent Zoom calls with the media is a squad that is trying to not let that victory get to its head like perhaps it let the season opener do.

Thus, I suspect we will see a focused, ready-to-play NC State team. Virginia has tended to start slow this year, being outscored 20-0 in the first quarter of the first two games combined. If the Wolfpack can start fast Saturday, I like their chances.

I believe they'll pull that off, as well as the upset, winning 34-30.

Previous predictions:

Game 1: NC State 27, Wake Forest 17 (Actual: NC State 45-42)

Game 2: NC State 34, Virginia Tech 30 (Actual: Virginia Tech 45-24)

Game 3: Pittsburgh 34, NC State 23 (Actual: NC State 30-29)

I'm starting to notice a trend here. Every time I've picked NC State to lose this season, it proves me wrong with an impressive win. Likewise, when I picked the Pack to win in Blacksburg, it ended up losing by multiple touchdowns to the Hokies.

This either means I know nothing or I've found myself with the unlucky touch of picking the opposite outcome through three weeks. It's probably the first option, but in case it's the latter, I'll play it safe and pick the Cavs.

There is some logical reasoning behind picking the Wahoos. Virginia is a good team and redshirt sophomore quarterback Brennan Armstrong leads the ACC and ranks No. 8 in the country with an average of 337.5 yards of total offense per game.

He will present the toughest dual-threat option the Wolfpack defense has seen so far this season. When the Pack faced Virginia Tech's dual-threat quarterbacks Braxton Burmeister and Quincy Patterson II, it struggled to stop the run and pass.

Granted, NC State's defense made the necessary stops it needed in order to beat a ranked opponent on the road Saturday, particularly on the ground, but Panthers quarterback Kenny Pickett still produced 451 yards of offense and three touchdowns.

If the Pack wants to win two ACC road games in consecutive weeks for the third time in the last 19 years, it will need to find a way to contain Armstrong.

Meanwhile, I feel good about NC State's opportunity to continue its momentum on offense this weekend against a Virginia team that ranks last in the ACC in tackle grading according to Pro Football Focus. Devin Leary had the game of his collegiate career when he threw for 336 yards, four touchdowns and zero interceptions in the win over Pitt. If he can replicate that performance in Scott Stadium, the Pack will be in a great position to advance to 3-1.

I ultimately see this game as a toss-up that should be a high-scoring affair between two capable offenses. I don't doubt NC State can do what it needs to in order to win Saturday, but I don't want to jinx the Wolfpack. I'd rather keep being wrong, so I'm taking Virginia 38-35.

Previous predictions:

Game 1: Wake Forest 29, NC State 26 (Actual: NC State 45-42)

Game 2: NC State 30, Virginia Tech 27 (Actual: Virginia Tech 45-24)

Game 3: Pitt 30, NC State 20 (Actual: NC State 30-29)

——

• Talk about it inside The Wolves' Den

• Subscribe to our podcast on iTunes

• Learn more about our print and digital publication, The Wolfpacker

• Follow us on Twitter: @TheWolfpacker

• Like us on Facebook