Published Oct 15, 2021
The Wolfpacker game predictions: NC State at Boston College
Matt Carter and Justin H. Williams
The Wolfpacker staff

With ACC Atlantic Division implications on the line, NC State travels to Boston College as a slight favorite Saturday night for a 7:30 p.m. kickoff on ACC Network.

Both teams are 4-1 overall and have played one ACC game, but NC State defeated Clemson at home while the Eagles lost on the road to the Tigers. Both of those games were close. NC State needed double overtime to prevail, and BC was driving for a chance to win it late before having a turnover on its final possession.

Can NC State score a significant win? The Wolfpacker staff make their guesses.

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Matt Carter

Every odd year for NC State football, there is a sense of doom and gloom about two dates in particular on the Wolfpack's schedule: road trips to Boston College and Wake Forest.

It makes sense. NC State is just 3-7 in Chestnut Hill. When BC joined the ACC in time for the 2005 football season, the Pack lost 30-10 in a night game at Alumni Stadium.

It began a stretch of five straight road defeats to the Eagles in conference play. Former Pack coach Tom O'Brien never won again at BC after he left there to coach NC State in 2007, going 0-3 in return trips to the place he started his head coaching career.

Dave Doeren has enjoyed a little better success (2-2 at BC). Perhaps that is why the sense of dread about a road game at Boston College has subsided more than the still ever-present fear about having to play in Winston-Salem.

Ironically, both of those road games seem to carry large implications on the ACC title race, based on how things are perceived in mid-October. Realistically, Boston College probably has to win Saturday to have a viable shot to make it to the conference title game.

Conversely, NC State could deliver a big boost to its chances with a win.

The feeling here is that, while the teams have identical overall records and are profiled similarly, the Wolfpack has slightly proven itself more thus far. There is no exact science to measuring college football strength of schedule (SOS), but most that I've observed have NC State with a better SOS. I have seen some that have BC's as the softest slate thus far in the entire ACC.

Using ESPN's FPI rankings, both teams have played Clemson, who FPI has at No. 7 nationally. The difference is that NC State won at home and Boston College lost on the road. The other Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) opponents for the Pack were Mississippi State on the road (No. 27), plus Louisiana Tech (82) and South Florida (105).

Conversely, for Boston College it has hosted Missouri (75), and played at Temple (115) and UMass (127).

I believe it'll be tight because nothing easy comes for NC State in Chestnut Hill, but the Pack will prevail.

Matt Carter's prediction: NC State 28, Boston College 24

Previous predictions:

Week 1: NC State 41, South Florida 21 (actual: NC State 45-0)

Week 2: NC State 33, Mississippi State 30 (actual: Mississippi State 24-10)

Week 3: NC State 42, Furman 6 (actual: NC State 45-7)

Week 4: Clemson 21, NC State 9 (actual: NC State 27-21)

Week 5: NC State 38, Louisiana Tech 17 (actual: NC State 34, Louisiana Tech 27)

Justin H. Williams

Two contenders in the ACC Atlantic Division coming off of idle weeks face off for a primetime matchup in Chestnut Hill. An NC State win would put the Wolfpack firmly in the driver's seat for the division title. A loss wouldn't sink the Pack's chances at an ACC Championship Game appearance, but it would make the road ahead much tougher with six conference games remaining.

In many ways, these two teams have similar identities. They both entered the season as potential sleepers in the ACC Atlantic, with NC State finishing second and Boston College third in the league's official preseason order of finish poll. Both squads take pride in winning the battle at the line of scrimmage, and both have talent and experience on the offensive line.

The Wolfpack is favored by three points according to most Las Vegas bookmakers, well within the boundaries of what is considered a toss-up. In these types of games, typically the team that can win the turnover margin and the battle at the line of scrimmage will win.

Boston College will be a tough out, particularly on the road. But ultimately, I think NC State is the deeper, more balanced team.

This game would likely be a ranked matchup had the Eagles' All-ACC candidate quarterback Phil Jurkovec not suffered an injury in week two. Jurkovec underwent surgery and could miss the remainder of the season.

Backup Dennis Grosel has been under center ever since. While he's been effective and helped lead Boston College to an overtime victory against Missouri, he isn't an All-ACC contender. Through five appearances, he's completed just over 60 percent of his passes for four touchdowns and four interceptions.

If the Wolfpack can start the game with energy on the road, it jumps out to an early lead and controls the game by establishing the run game with backs Zonovan Knight and Ricky Person Jr.

Throw out the second half against Louisiana Tech, this NC State defense returns to its true form coming off of a week of rest and keeps the Boston College offense on the sideline for most of the game.

Justin H. Williams’ prediction: NC State 27, Boston College 20

Previous predictions:

Week 1: NC State 41, South Florida 16 (actual: NC State 45-0)

Week 2: NC State 38, Mississippi State 28 (actual: Mississippi State 24-10)

Week 3: NC State 48, Furman 16 (actual: NC State 45-7)

Week 4: Clemson 20, NC State 16 (actual: NC State 27-21)

Week 5: NC State 49, Louisiana Tech 22 (actual: NC State 34, Louisiana Tech 27)


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