Published Sep 17, 2020
The Wolfpacker's win-loss predictions for NC State football
Matt Carter and Justin H. Williams
The Wolfpacker contributor

A year ago, NC State football's streak of five consecutive bowl games and two straight nine-win seasons were snapped during an injury-plagued 4-8 campaign, which included a 1-7 mark in the ACC.

The Wolfpack is determined to return to the pre-2019 days, beginning Saturday against Wake Forest in what will kick off the most unusual season most Pack fans have seen in their lifetimes.

How will the year unfold? The Wolfpacker staff of Matt Carter and Justin Williams go on the record with their predictions.

Matt Carter

If you have ever hung around Joe Giglio, the former NC State beat writer for the News and Observer who now is co-hosting “The OG” on local sports radio station 99.9, you might find yourself tagged with an occasional nickname.

Last year, mine was “True Believer.”

Here's the background on that. Joe and I previewed the 2019 football season in a podcast at Amedeo’s where I said that I was leaning towards predicting an 8-4 record, after which guests in the audience quickly saw the quizzical look of disbelief or puzzlement on Joe’s face. That was before Joe then expressed his disappointment in my analysis.

Let it be known that my official, on-the-record prediction ended up being 7-5, but somewhere along the way Joe became convinced I called for a nine-win season. (He would later acknowledge he got me confused with someone else on that matter.)

Needless to say, Joe's thought process was far closer to being accurate about NC State football in 2019 than me, regardless of what my official predictions were, and the nickname stuck, I think, through the ACC Tournament being canned at midpoint.

At the risk of being labeled a “True Believer” once again, I find myself being somewhat more optimistic after seeing a weekend of ACC football. Perhaps that is fool’s gold because the teams that didn’t play, like NC State, haven’t revealed their warts yet.

But I saw a lot of ACC teams with offensive line issues. I saw a lot of ACC teams that frankly are rebuilding. I saw a lot of ACC teams that I would not peg as huge favorites over the Wolfpack.

I also know it is not entirely fair to judge NC State’s 2020 prospects based on a 2019 season in which head coach Dave Doeren and his then-staff had enough bad luck to last a few years. The Wolfpack could be just a tad unlucky this year and that would be far more fortunate than 2019.

Ultimately though, what was true about 2019 regardless was the quarterback play was not up to par, and that does have to change in 2020. New NC State offensive coordinator Tim Beck has a good track record with signal callers. Even his detractors at his recent stop, Texas, concede that.

So my prediction is based upon the conclusions that Beck will get more consistent play out of redshirt sophomore quarterback Devin Leary, lady luck will be at least a tad kinder to NC State and the ACC is no gauntlet especially when you avoid Clemson on your schedule.

Matt Carter’s season record prediction: 6-5

Justin H. Williams

Assuming the full 11-game schedule is played, NC State comes back with a much more competitive squad than the previous season but falls just short of returning to a winning record in a season filled with one-possession contests.

Make no mistake, this Wolfpack team will be fun to watch and should be competitive in every game on the schedule. The Pack’s offense will take the biggest step forward this season under new offensive coordinator Tim Beck with improved quarterback play, a healthy O-Line and a strong stable of electric running backs.

Along with greater scoring production on offense, the law of averages will balance out two important factors that proved to be lethal for NC State in 2019: turnover margin and injuries. The Wolfpack was tied for last in turnover margin among FBS teams. Entering the season finale against UNC last fall, the team had started 45 different players due to several injuries, the most among Power Five schools.

While the Pack will compete in almost every game this season, the young roster will have to go through the growing pains of learning to win close contests.

In eight losses last season, NC State lost by an average margin of 22.75 points per game with only one (Georgia Tech) being a one-possession affair. That margin should shrink dramatically in 2020, but the youth on the defensive front and questions in the secondary combined with the stop-and-start offseason will make for some tough one-possession losses.

The Pack could find itself with a winning record if it proves to mature quickly but the main objective this fall should be to restore confidence in a program that has been among the ACC’s best in recent seasons leading up to last year. Any postseason action in 2020 should be considered a treat for NC State fans in a year that has proven to be sour thus far.

Justin H. Williams' season record prediction: 5-6

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