NC State to have five projected 'toss-up' games in 2021 says ESPN
ESPN college football writer Bill Connelly released his 2021 ACC Atlantic Division preview Tuesday, which included a breakdown of NC State.
For each team in the division, Connelly analyzes each squad's projected win total based on SP+ metrics and a chart of each program's historical performance. He also offers one thing we learned and one thing we didn't learn from each team last season.
Here is a breakdown of what Connelly had to say about the Wolfpack:
ESPN SP+ 2021 Projections
Projected SP+ rank: 45th (FBS)
Projected win total: 6.9 (3.6 in the ACC)
Likely wins:
Furman (95%)
Louisiana Tech (93%)
USF (88%)
Syracuse (84%)
Relative toss-ups:
Louisville (57%)
at Wake Forest (57%)
at Boston College (56%)
at Florida State (53%)
at Mississippi State (44%)
Likely losses:
North Carolina (26%)
at Miami (16%)
Clemson (15%)
Connelly's take:
What a tantalizing schedule. If the Pack improve more than projected -- a distinct possibility, since SP+ doesn't take quarterback Devin Leary's 2020 injury into account -- then they have a chance in virtually every game. If they are merely a top-50-level team, however, about eight games are losable.
The Wolfpacker's take:
The ESPN SP+ model nearly mimics the 2021 NC State schedule rankings we have released over the past several weeks:
No. 1: Clemson
As Connelly alluded to, the SP+ metrics don't take redshirt sophomore quarterback Devin Leary's injury last season into account. Leary was the anticipated starter in 2020 before missing the season opener and coming off of the bench in game two due to a prolonged August quarantine and later missing the final seven games of the season due to a leg break suffered in game five.
According to the coaching staff and Leary himself, the QB1 is back to 100 percent this summer and was as comfortable with the offense as ever this spring. If the return of Leary ends up leading to an improvement from the quarterback position as expected, NC State will end up being undervalued based on preseason predictions.
What Connelly learned about NC State in 2020
The upside remains.
"After winning between seven and nine games for five straight years, NC State stumbled in 2019, primarily on offense. But an improved run game and a dynamite receiving corps — Emeka Emezie and Devin Carter averaged 16 yards per catch, while slot receiver Thayer Thomas caught six touchdowns — boosted the Pack from 103rd to 62nd in offensive SP+.
"The defense let teams off the hook on passing downs sometimes but played reasonably efficient ball and improved in the red zone. Youngsters like linebacker Payton Wilson, safety Jakeen Harris and corner Shyheim Battle proved themselves quickly. A line with quite a few former four-star recruits mostly held up.
"Nearly all the stars are back besides nose tackle Alim McNeill and guard Joe Sculthorpe.
"Bailey Hockman, who took over when Leary was hurt, transferred to Middle Tennessee State. But Leary was a small-sample size all-star -- he played only four games but would have ranked 13th in Total QBR. It's easy to be optimistic about this roster."
What Connelly didn't learn about NC State in 2020
Does experience paper over all cracks?
"Leary's absence can't explain all of State's issues. The run game was still a bit of a liability (66th in rushing success rate with few big plays), and while the defense improved, it was still only 51st in defensive SP+.
"There were few true weaknesses, but the strengths weren't incredibly strong either. Is that something sheer experience can take care of? Or is there more to SP+'s skepticism than Leary's injury?"
NC State's SP+ history in one chart
Connelly's explanations of the outlier eras
1. "The first member of the NC State-to-NFL QB lineage: Roman Gabriel. He threw for nearly 3,000 yards in Raleigh, then tossed nearly 30,000 in the pros."
2. "Who do you call when you've bottomed out? Lou Holtz, who won 33 games in four years and engineered the Pack's best AP finish, 11th in 1974, before leaving for Arkansas."
3. "Moment of appreciation for Torry Holt. His last two seasons at State before embarking on what should end up a Hall-of-Fame NFL career: 150 catches, 2,703 yards, 27 TDs."
4. "Another likely future Hall-of-Famer, Philip Rivers, threw for 13,484 yards in college and, in 2002, led State to 11 wins and a No. 12 finish."
5. "Yet another future Hall-of-Famer, Russell Wilson, threw for 8,545 yards and rushed for 1,083 before transferring to Wisconsin. State hasn't lacked for individual talent, has it?"
The Wolfpacker's take:
With the exception of the 2019 dip, NC State has had arguably its longest stretch of being above-average nationally under head coach Dave Doeren. With a couple more winning seasons in 2021 and 2022, a sixth outlier may be required to display the Doeren effect of the past decade.
Doeren is already the second-winningest head coach in program history. He needs 23 more wins to pass former head coach Earle Edwards — the longest-tenured coach in program history — on the all-time wins list. Three more seasons with an average of eight or more wins would do it.
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