Published Sep 10, 2021
What others are picking for NC State at Mississippi State
Matt Carter  •  TheWolfpackCentral
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What started as a pick ‘em is currently NC State as a slight favorite by less than field goal over Mississippi State on the road Saturday evening.

The Wolfpacker made its official predictions live Friday morning, but what are others thinking?

Interestingly, the strongest proponent of a Pack victory may be from Andy Kostka, who covers the Bulldogs for the Clarion Ledger. Kostka has NC State winning, 35-21.

"If Mississippi State’s offense can look like the fourth quarter version of itself for longer stretches, the prediction for final score should be plenty closer," Kostka noted. "But until the consistency is proven, and the Bulldogs’ defense cuts down on the big plays they allowed in the first week and last season, NC State’s strong running game and physical defense will be a challenge.

At The Athletic, Bruce Feldman is warming up to NC State, and he has the Wolfpack not only covering the spread but winning outright, 27-21.

“This is a very underrated NC State team that is physical on both sides of the ball and should be able to contain the Air Raid, which barely survived against La. Tech last week,” Feldman wrote.

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One of Feldman’s counterparts at The Athletic, Stewart Mandel, has been a noted skeptic of Wolfpack head coach Dave Doeren over the years, even after Doeren has proven Mandel wrong, such as when Mandel picked NC State to go 2-6 in the ACC and 5-7 overall in 2018. Doeren’s squad went 9-3 in the regular season and 5-3 in the conference.

Thus it is probably not surprising that Mandel is not only saying take Mississippi State and the points, he is suggesting the Bulldogs will win outright, 27-24:

“It’s a bit surprising to see NC State favored in this one, though Mike Leach’s team did struggle to fend off Louisiana Tech last week while the Wolfpack blanked USF 45-0. Maybe this is the year Dave Doeren’s team finally beats some above-average teams, but I’ll have to see it with my own eyes first.”

The Athletic’s team of six SEC writers were split down the middle on who would win the game, three taking the Wolfpack and three choosing the Bulldogs.

ESPN’s quintet of betting analysts had mixed results in week one, but the best was Joe Fortenbaugh who went 4-1. Fortenbaugh is the one who made the case for taking the Wolfpack.

“NC State's 3-3-5 defense, which held USF to exactly zero points on just 271 total yards of offense while forcing three turnovers in Week 1, is tailor-made to limit Mike Leach's Air Raid passing attack, which puts the Wolfpack in an advantageous position entering Saturday's showdown in Starkville," Fortenbaugh said. "As a bonus, NC State has two extra days to prepare for this matchup against a sloppy Bulldogs unit that committed 12 penalties and six turnovers in a razor-thin one-point win over Louisiana Tech last Saturday.”

Also at ESPN, stats and analytics guru Bill Connelly SP+ model has NC State prevailing 28-23. He also gives the Wolfpack a 60 percent probability of winning. ESPN’s FPI has the Wolfpack with a 63.3 percent likelihood of prevailing.

Athon's Juan Jose Rodriguez has NC State on top, 33-24.

"Both offenses enter this week with plenty of momentum thanks to solid openings to the 2021 campaign," he noted. "The true question will be which — if either — trend might continue on the defensive side of the ball, considering the Bulldogs surrendered three offensive touchdowns (plus a pick-six) while the Wolfpack pitched a shutout. Rest may also play a role, as Mississippi State first took the field on Saturday while NC State’s Sept. 2 win offers two extra days off."

Pete Flutak of CollegeFootballNews.com likes the Wolfpack to emerge victorious 34-24, and on a scale of 1-to-5, his confidence meter for covering the spread has the game at a three.

“NC State is flying under the radar nationally, but considering how mediocre North Carolina looked in Week 1, this might be the second-best team in the ACC,” Flutak wrote. “It’s not the sexiest team, but it’s good in all phases and strong enough to generate the takeaways Mississippi State will be happy to provide.

Joe Williams from USA Today joined Mandel is picking a Mississippi State victory, although he acknowledged NC State caught his eye with its 45-0 win over South Florida in its opener.

“I hate to pick on NC State, especially after such an impressive win last weekend, but this is typically a spot where it just comes up short – when expectations are ratcheted up a skosh,” Williams stated. “Going on the road to face a mid-level SEC foe is not a good spot for the Wolfpack.”

Locally, WRALSportsFan's Joe Giglio "reluctantly" is taking Mississippi State and the 2.5 points.

The Richmond Times-Dispatch gathered a quartet of Virginia-based college football writers — David Teel and Mike Barber of the Times-Dispatch, Aaron McFarling of the Roanoke Times and Bennett Conlin of the Charlottesville Daily Progress — and they were all unanimous in having the Wolfpack prevail, although all four by a touchdown or less.

"An ACC-SEC matchup on the road after the week the ACC had to open the season certainly doesn’t sound like a great spot to be in for North Carolina State," Barber wrote. "But I’m really high on the Wolfpack on both sides of the ball this season, especially their running backs and linebackers. They were dominant in their opener, albeit against South Florida. The Bulldogs needed a late rally to pull past Louisiana Tech. Their offense got in gear but the defense has questions."

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