NFL Draft expert: NC State football should set new record for draft picks
Both times NC State has set the school record with six players taken in the same NFL Draft class — 2006 and 2012 — the defensive line has played a major role in it.
The last occurrence included a pair from the defensive front among the selections (although college defensive tackle J.R. Sweezy switched to the offensive line in the NFL), while the D-line played an even bigger role in the 2006 NFL Draft, when it set a school record with a trio of first-round picks. All three played up front in college, led by end Mario Williams, who became the first in ACC history to go No. 1 overall.
The 2018 NFL Draft could have even more Wolfpackers represented than either of those record draft hauls, and once again it will be the big defenders up front leading the way.
The annual postseason all-star contests are always the first indicator of what the NFL thinks about senior prospects, and NC State was well-represented in the top two games — the East-West Shrine Game and the Senior Bowl. Defensive end Kentavius Street and offensive guard Tony Adams took part in the former, while running back Jaylen Samuels and defensive tackles Justin Jones and B.J. Hill played in the latter.
Consensus All-American defensive end Bradley Chubb did not participate in either but is still considered a near-lock for the top 10 in the NFL Draft when it is held April 26-28 in Dallas. He would mark the school’s first first-round pick since the trio of linemen in 2006.
There’s also a pair from the Pack who entered the draft with a year of eligibility remaining — offensive tackle Will Richardson and running back Nyheim Hines — and both are good bets to hear their names called.
NC State should do more than simply break its all-time mark of six draftees in the same year. According to one NFL Draft analyst, it’s likely to shatter the current record of three top-100 selections, which was also set in 2006, even if Chubb is the only first-rounder.
“We’re looking at six top-100 picks possibly and eight draft picks overall,” said Eric Galko, owner of Optimum Scouting. “I think overall, NC State did a great job developing these guys; it all started with Bradley Chubb and the way he played this year.”
Galko even threw out a not so obvious, but fitting, comparison for Chubb in the NFL — Jaguars All-Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey, the No. 5 pick out of Florida State in 2016 who has not only developed a reputation for shutting down opponents but also for his swagger on the field.
“Chubb is a special, special person; a special player,” Galko said. “I think he’s going to be a Jalen Ramsey-like personality in the NFL, which I’m excited about. He’s a remarkable talent and I don’t think teams in the top five or six are going to let him slide too much.
“The first two picks are going to be quarterbacks in this draft, the third pick with the Colts is really wide open right now. They’re considering Chubb, they’re considering [Penn State running back] Saquon Barkley, they’re probably considering Orlando Brown, the offensive tackle for Oklahoma.
“I think Chubb is really in play, maybe the favorite, [for No. 3] right now.”
Galko attended several NC State games in person and also got an up-close look at the five postseason all-star game participants during the week of practices and Saturday games, so he knows the class goes far deeper than just Chubb.
Samuels played exclusively running back at the Senior Bowl after doing a little bit of everything at NC State and finished the exhibition with 10 rushes for 37 yards, plus two catches for 14 yards. However, he really shined during the week of practice, according to Galko, who expects Samuels to continue his versatile ways at the next level.
Galko has already revealed on Twitter that he talked to a veteran NFL scout at an NCSU game last fall, and the talent evaluator compared Samuels to former Patriots tight end Aaron Hernandez, Redskins tight end Jordan Reed, Cardinals running back David Johnson and Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell. The multiple stars at different positions are fitting examples to emulate for Samuels, according to Galko, who thinks the offensive star could go sometime in the second round.
“I think the one value Samuels adds is that allure of what can’t he do? That’s the exciting part,” Galko noted before expanding on the comparisons. “Hernandez was looked at as a running back out of high school and out of college a little bit, too; the Patriots used him as a running back sometimes despite being a tight end.
“That’s kind of what Samuels can be, he’s not quite their height or length, which I think holds him back a little bit from being one of those special, special talents that could be a late first-round pick, but teams absolutely see that. With a guy like Samuels, he hasn’t been able to show at NC State he can be a 20-carry-a-game type of player, but I think NFL teams are confident he can be, the way he is built and athletically the way he plays. More importantly, he’s a guy you can leave out there for all three downs.”
Glako continued to explain that the NFL is starting to maximize the value of offensive weapons that can move around the formation, just like Samuels. He thinks in just a few short years offensive skill players will be broken into two categories — outside receivers and everybody else. Having the same player being able to play in the slot, line up at running back and even see time as a tight end means the personnel on the field won’t give away as much to the opposition.
“With Samuels, teams can never know [the play] — he can be a running back running a 32 dive, he can be a slot receiver running a diversion, he can be a slot receiver running a true route, he can be a tight end, he can be an H-back,” Galko noted. “That’s the value — just because he’s on the field, just because where he’s aligned, no longer do teams know what’s going to happen.
“It’s what NFL teams are going to want. I’ve talked to many scouts about that, that’s what teams are coveting. Samuels can be the first version of that. Le’Veon Bell has been doing it, but you can’t put him at receiver too often because he’s so gifted at running back.
“I wouldn’t be surprised at all if NFL teams steal NC State’s game plan this year with a speed back, like Nyheim Hines, along with Samuels on the field … that’s two running backs out there, but they can both be receivers or running backs or whatever. I think he adds versatility, as well as being a physically remarkable athlete — I think he’ll test well at the combine, in terms of the short shuttle and the explosiveness drills. I think there’s a really good chance he’s a top 50-60 pick.”
Both of the defensive tackles in the Senior Bowl also impressed Galko during the week of practice. He already knew about Hill and the off-field intangibles he presents an NFL team, but he remembers being blown away by Jones, saying that he underrated the latter coming into the week.
“B.J. Hill is a leader of the NC State team and a really impressive guy, I think teams recognize that,” Galko said. “He showed during the week of practice that he’s more of a gap-eating run defender type. He can rush the passer, but he’s best when he’s clogging up lanes, disrupting the line of scrimmage and then attacking from there, taking advantage of one-on-one opportunities.
“I don’t think he dominated the way I was hoping he would and rising to a late first-round pick, but I think he goes someplace in the second, at worst third round. He’s a nose tackle or three-technique in the NFL, depending on the scheme. He can do a lot of stuff on all three downs, but especially on first and second.
“Justin Jones showed a lot more than I expected. I think his brute strength and power as a one-on-one pass rusher was really impressive. … He showed that he’s going to demand that double team attention. He can be a guy that eats up space just because he’s so disruptive. I think he made himself a lot of money that week at the Senior Bowl.”
The Shrine Game was held the week before the Senior Bowl, and once again an NC State defensive lineman caught Galko’s eye. This time it was Street, who finished with 1.5 sacks in the contest and dominated during the week of practice.
“Teams recognize the fact that he may be the fourth-best player on his college defensive line,” Galko noted. “But those first three guys might be top-three round picks.
“He flashed a lot this year. I thought some of the times in season he just didn’t take advantage of opportunities that well, he didn’t finish one-on-one reps in college this season. At the Shrine Game, he did just that — he finished every opportunity he had. … I thought his performance at the Shrine Game was outstanding. He was arguably the best defensive end there.”
While Street’s college statistics — 19.5 career tackles for loss and 9.5 sacks — might not turn heads, his Shrine Game performance and showing at the upcoming NFL Combine will, according to Galko.
“If he plays well at the Shrine Game and tests in the top tier of defensive ends at the combine there’s no reason he can’t be contending for a top-100 pick,” he said.
Adams also did well for himself at the Shrine Game. The guard might not check off every box for the NFL, notably in terms of desired height for a lineman, but the 6-1.5, 314-pounder did measure in with long enough arms, at 33 and 3/8 inches, that it can help offset the concern, according to the scout. Adams’ wingspan actually ended up being measured at over 79 inches, longer than fellow Shrine Gamer Aaron Evans, a UCF offensive tackle who is 6-4 3/8 tall.
Galko went on to explain Adams’ biggest draw might not even be on the field — his leadership and intelligence are viewed as his two strongest traits.
“He had the arm length at that weigh in, which was important, and I thought he had a strong week of practice,” Galko continued. “He had a few reps against Kentavius Street and he was one of the few blockers the whole week of practice and even the game that could contain Kentavius Street. … I think he did a great job overall during the week.”
Galko admitted that probably only about 60 percent of the players in the Shrine Game will be selected in the draft, but he thinks Street and Adams both fall on the right side of that 60.
“I think both of those guys are guaranteed draft picks,” he concluded. “Street is maybe someplace early day three, that fourth-fifth round area; and Adams may be somewhere in that same area.”
Though Glako did not get to see Richardson or Hines in the all-star games, he saw enough this fall to be impressed by both early entrants. Optimum Scouting had graded Richardson extremely high in the preseason based on his previous body of work, and he only continued to impress after returning from the two-game suspension that began his final year in Raleigh.
“The best thing about Will Richardson — and I’ve talked to a lot of scouts about this too — is all of his issues are fixable, and that’s the exciting part,” Galko explained. “He has the off-field stuff, which is certainly concerning and teams have to weigh if he’ll get a lot better and what kind of personality he is because of that — but on-field a lot of the concerns are footwork, small alignment, body-positioning things he can fix. He really, really impressed all this season.
“If the [off-field] stuff checks out, he’s a guy that should be a top-100 pick as well. In a really good offensive line class, he’s still going to go high because teams are desperate for good offensive linemen in today’s NFL and the way the game is going.”
With Hines, Galko threw out a comparison that most NC State fans are familiar with, but won’t like — former North Carolina running back Gio Bernard, a second-round pick in 2013 who has started just 14 times in his five NFL seasons but has already eclipsed 2,000 yards both rushing and receiving while scoring 24 touchdowns.
“Bernard was the first running back selected in his draft class, I don’t think Hines will go that high,” Galko noted. “But he was remarkably productive in high school and college, is explosive, gets to his top speed very quickly and I think his pass-catching upside is maybe better even than what he showed in college because Jaylen Samuels took a lot of those routes.
“I think as long as he can show pass-catching ability and he can test as good as I think he’s going to at the combine — I’m expecting somewhere in the low 4.4s, if not lower than that — and overall shows his explosiveness, I think there’s a really good chance he’s also a top-100 pick, at worst an early fourth-round guy because he’s so athletically and physically gifted as a smaller running back.”
There’s one other Pack senior not on most radars who Galko thinks has a chance to be drafted this year — cornerback Johnathan Alston — which could push the Pack draftee contingent to nine. The former wide receiver switched to defense prior to the 2016 season, redshirted and came back this fall to tally 54 tackles, pick off two passes and break up a team-high eight passes.
“He might be a draft pick, too, to a team that values athleticism,” Galko said. “I think Alston has a real chance to be drafted, just because he’s a former receiver turned corner and has a lot of athletic upside.”
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