Published Feb 19, 2020
The Wolfpacker's weekly NET report
Matt Carter  •  TheWolfpackCentral
Editor
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NC State basketball has six games remaining on its schedule, and while some may grab more headlines than others, each carries significance when you examine the Wolfpack's place on the bubble line for the NCAA Tournament.

Most prognosticators have NC State as one of the first four-to-eight teams on the outside looking in for making the field of 68 teams. A close examination of the many teams in the ballpark of NC State, shows that there is not a lot of separation and potentially a lot of fluidity in the coming weeks before the selection committee finalizes the brackets March 15.

The chart below illustrates teams that have generally been listed as among the last eight teams in or last eight teams out of the field along with the records in the respective quadrants and on the road this season. About eight of them would probably make the tournament if it was held today.

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Bubble Teams Quads And Road Records
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Road Record

Alabama

1-6

5-4

5-1

3-0

3-6

Arkansas

2-6

2-4

8-0

4-0

4-6

Arizona State

4-6

3-2

5-0

5-0

6-3

Cincinnati

2-5

6-0

6-3

3-0

4-5

East Tennessee State

2-2

2-1

5-0

11-1

9-3

Georgetown

5-9

4-1

1-0

5-0

4-4

Indiana

4-7

2-2

4-0

6-0

1-6

Minnesota

5-10

1-2

2-0

4-0

1-8

Mississippi State

2-6

3-1

6-2

5-0

3-5

NC State

4-3

3-3

3-3

6-0

5-5

Providence

5-8

2-0

3-3

4-1

3-6

Purdue

4-10

3-1

3-2

4-0

3-8

Richmond

2-4

2-0

6-2

9-0

7-2

Stanford

2-5

2-3

5-1

7-0

2-4

USC

2-6

6-0

6-1

5-0

5-4

Utah State

2-4

2-2

6-1

9-0

4-5

VCU

0-6

2-2

9-0

6-1

4-4

Virginia

3-3

5-3

5-1

4-0

4-4

Wichita State

2-3

6-3

3-0

8-0

4-3

Xavier

3-8

6-1

4-0

4-0

4-5

Breaking down NC State's schedule into three categories, here is why each have its own degree of importance:

• The Quad 1 games (home against Duke and Florida State and at Duke): If you note in the chart above, NC State is the only team with an above-.500 record in quad one games at 4-3. Furthermore, three teams have more quad one wins than NC State, but each of those squads also has at least eight losses there, too. Getting at least one win would probably put the Pack with one of the better quad one records of the group. Picking up two and NC State begins to have a commanding argument to make.

However, this position is also somewhat tenuous. Wisconsin is No. 30 in the NET, which is the cutoff for a quad one home game. On the flip side, the loss at Virginia Tech is in a similar spot for a road contest, but the defeat at Clemson is not far from jumping up into a quad one either.

• At UNC: This game should make NC State fans nervous beyond being a rivalry game. NC State's case becomes much more borderline after its quad one record. It's combined Q1/Q2 record is currently 7-6. Only four other teams have an above-.500 record in the top two quadrants. A win here would go a good ways to ensuring a positive mark, and it would also help what is a decent road record.

Currently, NC State is 5-5 in true road games. The chart above illustrates how nine teams on the bubble have a .500 mark or better on the road. Three of them, however, play in non-Power Five conferences. Only Arizona State (6-3) has more wins in true road games (not including neutral court venues) among the Power Five opponents.

However, a loss at UNC likely means a losing quad two record for NC State. That would put them in a bad position along with three other teams currently on the bubble.

• The quad three home games (Pittsburgh and Wake Forest): The ugliest part of NC State's resume is its quad three record of 3-3. That's tied with Cincinnati (6-3) and Providence (3-3, plus it also has a dreaded quad four loss) for the most Q3 defeats. Simply put, NC State cannot afford another bad setback.

One area that could help is if teams move up quads. Appalachian State is at the cutoff for a home quad 3/4 win. It is currently at No. 161 in the NET rankings. If it was one spot higher (like it was in the beginning of the week), it would be a quad three and improve NCSU's record to 4-3 there. Florida International, at No. 173, is not far from helping, too.

There's a chance that some of those losses could fall off, too. Boston College is not far from being a quad two defeat. It just needs to improve seven spots in the NET. The home losses to Georgia Tech and UNC are longer shots to bump up.

The chart below shows each bubble team's NET rankings and strength of schedule numbers. NC State's overall strength of schedule is likely to move up with three games left against top-15 NET squads.

Bubble Teams' NET And Strength Of Schedules
Team NETStrength of ScheduleNon-conference Strength of Schedule

Alabama

38

6

36

Arkansas

51

15

11

Arizona State

49

23

76

Cincinnati

50

24

26

East Tennessee State

42

158

82

Georgetown

45

7

45

Indiana

63

52

94

Minnesota

44

27

128

Mississippi State

53

56

106

NC State

60

91

74

Providence

58

18

130

Purdue

33

63

87

Richmond

46

85

109

Stanford

37

93

205

USC

47

69

139

Utah State

41

95

98

VCU

52

53

137

Virginia

54

71

168

Wichita State

43

80

140

Xavier

39

20

90

NET Rankings Update

These are the sorted rankings used by the NCAA Tournament (with sorted being the key word) committee. What is more important is the quadrant rankings below them.

This is updated through games of Tuesday:

6. Duke — TBD (road, home) (no change from a week ago)

10. Louisville — L (home) (down three)

13. Florida State — TBD (home) (up one)

25. Auburn — L (road) (down 10)

30. Wisconsin — W (home) (up two)

54. Virginia — W (road) (no change)

55. UNC Greensboro — W (road) (up eight)

59. Memphis – L (neutral) (down one)

60. NC State (up three)

61. Notre Dame — W (home) (down 10)

64. Syracuse — W (road) (up three)

75. Virginia Tech — L (road) (up five)

79. Clemson — L (road), W (home) (up 22)

88. Georgia Tech — L (home), L (road) (down six)

92. North Carolina — L (home), TBD (road) (up four)

100. Pittsburgh — TBD (home) (down 22)

101. Miami — W (home), W (road) (up seven)

103. Wake Forest — W (road), TBD (home) (down four)

142. Boston College — L (road) (down two)

144. Little Rock — W (home) (down seven)

161. Appalachian State – W (home) (up six)

173. Florida International — W (home) (down eight)

296. St. Francis (Brooklyn) — W (home) (up six)

301. Detroit Mercy — W (home) (down five)

324. Alcorn State — W (home) (down four)

337. The Citadel — W (home) (down three)

Note: There are 353 teams ranked by the NET.

Quads/Strength Of Schedule

Broken down by quadrants NCAA committee uses (quadrant four wins are disregarded by NCAA committee):

Quadrant 1 (Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Road 1-75): 4-3 with three remaining

Quadrant 2 (Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Road 76-135): 3-3 with one remaining

Quadrant 3 (Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Road 136-240): 3-3 with two remaining

Quadrant 4 (Home 161+, Neutral 201+, Road 241+): 6-0 with none remaining


Non-conference strength of schedule: No. 74

Overall strength of schedule: No. 91

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