NC State almost found itself in the most enviable position entering the second half of the ACC season, but alas Syracuse could not do the Pack a big favor over the weekend.
We explain why that could have been important and more in our 3-2-1 format.
Three Observations On ACC Atlantic Division race
1. This game Saturday is really big. It seems easy to forget that NC State has only played one ACC game thus far. Beating Clemson seems much bigger than one win, and it is. The Tigers are still considered a good bet to be among the top contenders in the ACC Championship game, and NC State has the head-to-head tiebreaker locked up.
Boston College, even with an injury to starting quarterback Phil Jurkovec, is another team that has Atlantic Division aspirations, but their chances took a bit of a hit when it lost a nail-biter at Clemson on Oct. 2. Like NC State, BC has only played one ACC game. They and Syracuse are the three teams in the Atlantic that have already completed their entire non-conference schedules.
A win over the Eagles means that NC State would be quickly two games up over BC, and own a commanding position in any realistic tiebreaker that might come with the Eagles considering the two different results the two teams had vs. Clemson.
In other words, it NC State beats Boston College and the Atlantic somehow comes down to the two teams, NC State is in a very, very (did we mention very) good position.
2. It really would have helped if Syracuse had upset Wake Forest. The Orange took WFU to overtime before falling. A win by Syracuse would have left NC State as the only team in the conference's Atlantic Division without a loss, i.e. controlling its own destiny.
However, it's only one game in for NC State and it's a bit laughable to be thinking that way. The more important viewpoint is knowing it could have given Wake Forest an unexpected loss.
If NC State can beat BC Saturday, then the Nov. 13 game at Wake Forest may loom large. It seems unlikely the Deacons are to lose its one ACC contest between now and then, an Oct. 30 home date vs. Duke. (Note that its Nov. 6 game at UNC is a non-conference affair, technically.)
Thus Wake Forest should be 5-0 in the conference at that point. A win by Syracuse would have increased NC State's margin for error in its four ACC games between now and its game in Winston-Salem, but it was not meant to be.
3. Clemson still looms. We'll find out what kind of Tigers team emerges from its bye week. It has a supreme set-up Friday, playing at Syracuse. The Orange will be having a short week after an emotional overtime loss to Wake Forest while Clemson is rested and presumably hungry and motivated to prove something.
If Clemson does not handle business, that may be telling.
Then comes a bigger game for Clemson: at Pittsburgh Oct. 23. Some believe the Panthers may be the ACC's best team. That shapes up almost like a must-win for Clemson is it realistically wants to stay in the ACC race. Their conference slate concludes Nov. 20 at home against Wake Forest.
Two Observations From The Other Teams On NC State's Schedule
1. There are are some games that look a little more winnable than preseason expectations. When you have played six games, you are what your record says you are, and UNC, 3-3 overall and 2-3 in the ACC, at this point looks like an average/mediocre football team that you find in a mid-to-lower tier bowl.
Throw in Miami's announcement that is has lost star quarterback D'Eriq King for the season, and NC State's two Coastal Division crossover opponents look far less daunting than in the preseason when it appeared the Wolfpack was facing the best two from that side.
2. There are some games that look a little trickier, though. The Atlantic is clearly stronger at the moment than the Coastal. Louisville is 1-2 in the ACC, but both of its losses were close defeats. Similarly, both of Syracuse's setbacks were close. Both come to Raleigh, which if NC State is a legitimate ACC contender this year means that the Pack should take care of business, but they are probably a tougher battle than first appreciated.
The one that stands out however is at Florida State on Nov. 6. The Noles have back-to-back ACC wins vs. Syracuse and at UNC. It's also a team that took ranked Notre Dame to overtime. Yes, it also was blown out by Wake Forest and was embarrassed in a last-second loss to FCS's Jacksonville State, but the Noles have shown they have fight left in them, and a potentially ranked NC State team coming to Tallahassee is likely to have FSU up and motivated for the game.
One Thought For How NC State Looks So Far In ACC Race
1. It's exciting to be thinking after the bye about a path to an ACC title game. There is a lot of business to be taken care of between now and the ACC Championship in Charlotte on Dec. 4, but everything is in front of NC State.
Help, like the one that almost came this past Saturday from Syracuse, would be nice, but it's also not needed if NC State keeps winning, and that's not inconceivable. ESPN's FPI currently has NC State at a better than 50-50 chance in all by the Miami contest on the road.
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