Published Oct 18, 2021
The Wolfpacker 3-2-1: Thoughts on ACC race after week seven
Matt Carter  •  TheWolfpackCentral
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NC State is sitting pretty, perhaps inducing a case of nerves over what might be next. However, it is not the only team in good shape in the ACC's Atlantic Division.

We explain that and more in our 3-2-1 format.

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Three Observations On ACC Atlantic Division race

1. Time for NC State to take care of business. Disregard the notion from oddsmakers and ESPN's FPI that Saturday's game at Miami is a toss-up. The computers for some reason still love the Hurricanes, but the reality is Miami is 0-4 against Power Five teams this year and their injuries are starting to pile up.

The truth is games at Florida State and home vs. Louisville and Syracuse for NC State could prove to be trickier, but regardless all four of those contests are coming in the next five for NC State, and it represents the portion of the schedule where the Pack has to handle business.

Last year's team did a decent job of that. It lost at Virginia Tech, but it also defeated Pittsburgh, Virginia and Syracuse on the road and knocked off Florida State, Wake Forest, Duke and Georgia Tech at home. In other words, in the games that were either toss-ups or should-wins among peers or lesser in the ACC, NC State went 7-1.

It'll probably need to sweep them this year because of what Wake Forest has done.

2. Time is coming for Wake Forest to prove itself. The Demon Deacons came out of the bye in a good position in the Atlantic because they have basically done what NC State needs to do: handle business.

It is already 4-0 in the ACC and just has to beat Duke, who lost 48-0 last Saturday at Virginia, to move to 5-0 and complete a sweep of the games it needed to prevail in order to be considered an Atlantic Division contender.

That said, Wake Forest's strength of schedule nationally, according to Sagarin Ratings, is just No. 102 out of 130 teams. Only Boston College in the ACC has played a softer slate, per Sagarin, and at least BC has played at Clemson and hosted NC State.

The Deacons' final three games are home vs. NC State, at Clemson and at Boston College. The good news for Wake is that if it earns a sweep of the other five ACC games, it'll give itself some margin for error to lose one and still potentially take the ACC, especially if it beats the Wolfpack, the lone home game in that stretch.

3. Clemson's defense keeps their hopes alive. For now, at least. Somewhat quietly, perhaps because the noise of how awful Clemson's offense has been overshadows everything else, Clemson is 3-1 in the ACC and that includes a win over Boston College.

The Tigers though may prove to have the toughest ACC slate of the three presumed top contenders because it still has to play at Pittsburgh and host Wake Forest in addition to already going to NC State (loss) and hosting BC. Its other two remaining ACC games are hosting Florida State and at Louisville.

Saturday at Pittsburgh is huge. Realistically, Clemson needs that game or otherwise it is probably going to have hope for some help to have a chance to win the Atlantic.

Two More Thoughts In The Atlantic

1. Louisville, Florida State and BC are not dead, yet, but odds are (very) slim. The Noles are 2-2 in the ACC, but both of its losses are within the division, which is the second tiebreaker following head-to-heads. FSU still has to play Clemson, NC State and Boston College. It'll need to somehow sweep that to have a chance.

Louisville could easily be 3-0 in the ACC but is instead 1-2. A loss at home Saturday to BC would probably end any hopes for the Cards. It's a favorable setup, however. Boston College has now lost two straight and will need to find the resolve to respond, while Louisville is coming off a bye.

Boston College falling to 0-2 is a bit crushing because both teams they lost to are, at the moment, perceived to be in the mix for the Atlantic title, damaging in any tiebreaker scenario. It now plays three out of four games on the road and still has Wake Forest waiting. Like FSU, it probably needs a sweep of its games to be a contender again.

2. Syracuse is going to be no gimme for teams on its schedule. That has been proven despite the fact it is 0-3. It took Wake Forest to overtime and had a makable field goal to potentially take Clemson to OT. Both games were at home, but it's one road game was a loss on a field goal as time expired at Florida State.

With three losses the Orange cannot expect to be an Atlantic contender, but give them credit for being (far) better than anticipated. From NC State's perspective, the question is will they break at some point between now and Nov. 20 when they come to Raleigh. A string of close losses can start to take its toll on morale towards the end of the year.

One Thought On The Coastal

1. It's Pittsburgh's to lose. They are 2-0 in the conference, and every other team in the Coastal but Virginia Tech has two league losses already. Plus, Pittsburgh's 28-7 win over Virginia Tech on the road Saturday gave the Panthers a tiebreaker cushion on the Hokies.

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