No. 23-ranked NC State (16-5 overall, 4-4 in ACC) hosts No. 12-ranked Virginia Tech (17-3, 6-2 ACC) at 12 p.m. Saturday at PNC Arena on Raycom. Here is a breakdown of the Hokies.
Season Overview
Virginia Tech’s hopes rest with the injured left foot/toe of senior point guard Justin Robinson, who got hurt after playing 19 minutes against Miami on Wednesday. Robinson had been rolling the last two games with 35 points, eight assists and he shot 9 of 13 from three-point land against Syracuse’s zone defense in a 78-56 win last Saturday. He then had 17 points and three assists before leaving against the Hurricanes.
The 6-foot-2, 195-pound Robinson is averaging 14.4 points and 5.5 assists per game, and shooting 41.1 percent from three-point land this season. He torched NC State for 32 points and four assists in an 85-75 Hokies win last year. Sophomore Wabissa Bede would likely assume more of playmaking role , and he had seven points in 37 minutes against Miami. The 6-1, 195-pounder is averaging 3.5 points and 2.1 assists in 21.7 minutes per game.
Virginia Tech played three Power Five Conference foes in the non-conference, topping Purdue and Washington, but losing at Penn State in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge. Purdue is ranked No. 17 in the country presently, and Washington is 28th. NC State defeated Penn State on a neutral floor earlier in the season.
VT’s lone ACC losses were both blowouts on the road — 81-59 at Virginia on Jan. 15 and 103-82 at North Carolina on Jan. 21.
Rankings
In the newly established NET rankings done by the NCAA, through games of Jan. 30, the Hokies are ranked No. 10 in the country, which means it would qualify as a quad one contest for the Pack. ESPN’s College Basketball Power Index (BPI) has Virginia Tech ranked No. 6 in the country, and Kenpom.com has the Hokies at No. 11.
The Hokies are ranked No. 26 in the old RPI formula used by the NCAA — according to RealTimeRPI.com.
Virginia Tech is ranked No. 11 in the coaches’ poll, and No. 12 in The Associated Press poll.
For comparison, NC State is 19th in BPI, 22nd in coaches’ poll, 23rd in The Associated Press, 25th in NET, 27th in Kenpom.com and 115th in RPI.
Shooting
A healthy Virginia Tech team has been the top shooting squad in the ACC, both in field-goal percentage (50.2) and on three-pointers (42.6). The Hokies lead the league with 10.5 three-point field goals made per game.
The shooting will take a hit if Robinson is absent, but wings Nickeil Alexander-Walker, a sophomore, fifth-year senior shooting guard Ahmed Hill and sixth-year senior wing Tyrone Outlaw Jr. of Roxboro, N.C., can all stroke. Outlaw is 45 of 91 on three-pointers for what would be an ACC-best 49.5 percent, if he had enough makes. Hill is at 43.8 percent and Alexander-Walker checks in at 41.8 percent.
Even players such as freshman Isaiah Wilkins and Bede are both snipers, with the latter getting six starts in ACC action. Bede is 44.1 percent on three-pointers, and Wilkins, who is from Winston-Salem, N.C., is at 41.9 percent.
Rebounding
The Hokies might be on the short end of starting lineups with just 6-10 redshirt sophomore center Kerry Blackshear taller than 6-5. VT is ninth in the ACC in rebounding margin (3.1),
The Hokies are last in the ACC in defensive rebounding per game (23.4), and last in the league overall (32.3). Blackshear leads the team with 6.4 rebounds a contest, and Outlaw is second at 4.8.
Defense
North Carolina torched the Virginia Tech defense for 103 points on Jan. 21, and Virginia had 81 on Jan. 15. No other ACC foe has scored more than 71 points though. The Hokies rank second in the ACC in allowing 62.1 points per game, and are seventh in ACC-only games at 70.3 points thanks to the dent the Tar Heels in particular made.
The Hokies are sixth in the league in allowing 41.2-percent shooting from the field, but just 12th in three-point field goal percentage (34.5). Opponents have gone 180 of 522 from beyond the arc, and only Syracuse has allowed more three-point field goal attempts on the season.
Opposing teams have shot 1,064 field goals attempts against the Hokies, to put the three-point attempts in perspective. Nearly half the shots taken against VT have been threes.
The negative of playing a small ball lineup is not having much of a shot-blocking presence, and the Hokies dead last in the ACC with 2.5 blocks per game. Blackshear has 19 blocked shots this season, and that leads the team.
Depth
The depth takes a hit if Robinson is unable to play but a pair of North Carolina natives have provided some punch off the bench in Outlaw and Wilkins. Outlaw would likely start if Robinson misses extended time.
Outlaw originally played his freshman year at UNCG, transferred to junior college and landed with the Hokies. The 6-6, 220-pounder missed the 2015-16 season and then suffered a torn ACL last year. He has reached double figures in six games, including a season-high 16 at Penn State, and is averaging 8.1 points and 4.8 rebounds in 26 minutes a contest.
Wilkins chips in 4.9 points and 1.9 rebounds in 13.6 minutes. Sophomore forward P.J. Horne has missed the last three games due to injury, creating just a seven-man rotation of late, when including Robinson. Freshman point guard Jonathan Kabongo could have an increased role.
Star Watch
Virginia Tech sophomore guard Nickeil Alexander-Walker had a quality first season last year, but did struggle against NC State.
He had three points, three rebounds and four fouls in 16 minutes of action in the Hokies home win against the Wolfpack. The odds are that he’ll have a vastly different impact Saturday. The 6-5, 205-pounder from Toronto, Ontario, was ranked No. 32 overall nationally by Rivals.com in the class of 2017, coming out of Chattanooga (Tenn.) Hamilton Heights Christian. He went on to average 10.7 points and 3.8 rebounds for the Hokies, and shot 39.2 percent from three-point land.
Alexander-Walker has improved across the board this season, shooting a blistering 54.1 percent from the field, which ranks third in the ACC, and 41.8 percent on three-pointers, putting him in a position to be a two-and-done NBA Draft prospect. He is averaging 17.9 points, 4.2 rebounds and 3.8 assists per game, and he could be getting even more responsibilities if Robinson misses an extended period of time.
Alexander-Walker opened the season with 20-plus points in the first four games, and has nine on the season, including getting 25 points three different times.
Stats To Watch
Turnover margin: The Hokies are tied with Duke for the lead in turnover margin at 3.80, thanks in part to turning it over just 11.7 times a game (which is third in the league) under the steady hand of Robinson. NC State leads the ACC in forcing turnovers at 17.0 per game.
NC State's three-point shooting: In Virginia Tech's two ACC losses, Virginia and UNC made a combined 29 three-pointers and both shot at least 47 percent from long range. All other ACC teams against the Hokies have shot less than 40 percent on three-pointers.
Field goal attempts: Virginia Tech prefers a slower pace than NC State. The Pack leads the ACC in shots attempted this season. The Hokies have allowed the second fewest field goal attempts and shot the 11th fewest in the league. Which team will dictate pace better?
Game Within The Game: Kerry Blackshear vs. Wyatt Walker
Virginia Tech doesn’t have much size, putting a lot of pressure on redshirt junior center Kerry Blackshear.
The 6-10, 250-pounder followed up his breakout redshirt sophomore season with similar numbers — averaging 12.7 points, 6.5 rebounds and 1.0 blocks per game. He is shooting 50.8 percent from the field, and he can stretch the defense. He has made nine three-pointers this season.
The attrition of Khadim Sy and Johnny Hamilton, plus the suspension of Chris Clarke this season has left Blackshear as the lone player over 6-5.
Blackshear has fouled out of three games and played with four fouls six others. However, he also has been pretty consistent except for the last two games, where he has combined to go 3 of 13 from the field for seven points and 14 rebounds. Virginia Tech still won against Syracuse and at Miami.
Blackshear missed the 2016-2017 season with a leg injury, and NC State redshirt junior center Wyatt Walker missed the 2017-2018 campaign with a knee. Walker, who is from Jacksonville, Fla., is fresh off of one of his best games with the Wolfpack. He had 11 points, seven rebounds and three blocked shots in a season-high 30 minutes in the 66-65 overtime loss vs. Virginia on Tuesday.
The 6-9, 240-pounder is averaging 5.8 points and 4.4 rebounds per game.
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