NC State will play the sixth game of its 2020 football season on Saturday, Oct. 24 against UNC in Kenan Memorial Stadium at 12:00 p.m. ET on ESPN.
The No. 14 Tar Heels (3-1, 3-1 ACC) are coming off of a 31-28 road loss to Florida State, their first setback of the season. The No. 23 Wolfpack (4-1, 4-1 ACC) is coming off of three straight ACC wins after a 31-20 home victory over Duke Saturday.
Here is the full scouting report on UNC:
Five UNC players to watch
Sophomore quarterback Sam Howell — Howell has become one of the most recognizable names in college football after a historic 2019 campaign as a true freshman starting quarterback for the Tar Heels.
The 6-1, 225-pounder threw 38 touchdown passes last fall, which set a new FBS record for a true freshman and was the most ever in school history. It was also the third most of any quarterback in ACC history. Through four games this year, Howell has averaged 287.8 yards passing per contest with nine touchdowns and four interceptions.
Fifth-year senior linebacker Chazz Surratt — Formerly a quarterback in his first two seasons at Carolina, Surratt made the switch to linebacker in 2019 and earned first-team All-ACC honors. He was also the runner-up for ACC Defensive Player of the Year.
His 115 tackles last fall led the team and ranked second in the ACC. He's had 24 total tackles, 3.5 for loss, three sacks and five quarterback hurries thus far in 2020.
Senior running back Michael Carter — A 12-game starter for UNC last season, Carter was named third-team All-ACC at running back and was an All-ACC honorable mention as an all-purpose back.
The 5-8, 199-pounder leads the Tar Heels with 478 rushing yards this fall. He's scored two rushing touchdowns and has reeled in 10 receptions for 86 yards. Carter also returns kickoffs for Carolina and has gained 62 yards on three attempts.
Junior wide receiver Dyami Brown — A 13-game starter for North Carolina in 2019, Brown was named third-team All-ACC and earned ACC Receiver of the Week honors twice. He led the conference averaging 20.3 yards per catch among wideouts that had at least two receptions per contest.
Entering Saturday, the 6-0, 185-pounder has a team-high 296 yards receiving and three touchdown catches. He's grabbed 17 receptions on the season and has had at least one catch for 25 or more yards in each of the first four games this fall.
Junior running back Javonte Williams — Last season, Williams finished the year with 1,109 all-purpose yards and was the fifth-highest graded offensive player among Power Five running backs according to Pro Football Focus (PFF).
The 5-10, 220-pounder leads UNC with 602 all-purpose yards through four games this fall. He's rushed for 402 yards and seven touchdowns on 63 carries and has grabbed nine receptions for 200 yards and two touchdowns. Williams is the second-leading rusher and the third-leading receiver for Carolina entering Saturday.
What to watch from UNC
1. Explosive plays on offense
With multiple playmakers on offense, the Tar Heels have an ability to make short-yardage plays into first downs and long gains. While North Carolina has completed eight passes of 20 or more yards, five of which for touchdowns, it hasn't just come from deep balls.
UNC has combined for 36 rushing attempts of 10 or more yards with an average of nine per game. Carter leads the team averaging 8.4 yards per carry, which ranks second in the ACC among backs with more than 10 attempts. Williams ranks fifth in the league by averaging 6.8 yards per carry.
2. Strong red zone defense
Through four games, Carolina has only allowed opponents to score touchdowns on seven of 16 trips to the red zone. That's good for a 56.3 percent touchdown-prevention clip, which ranks second best in the ACC.
It has allowed six field goals in those 16 trips, though, which translates to an 81.3 conversion percentage overall (counting FGs and TDs). That's tied for 29th among FBS teams and tied for eighth in the ACC.
Considering North Carolina's ability to put up points, however, opponents need to convert touchdowns on red-zone visits to keep pace with the Tar Heels offense.
3. Penalty struggles
UNC averages nine penalties per game, which is slightly higher than the Wolfpack's 8.8 per contest. The Heels are tied for 66th out of 77 FBS teams and 14th in the ACC in penalties per game.
North Carolina hasn't been much better in penalty yards per game, although its number is slightly better than NC State's. Carolina's 81 penalty yards per contest average ranks No. 67 among FBS teams and 13th in the ACC. The only teams in the conference with a worse average are the Pack and Florida State, who both average 83.2 per game.
Three keys to the game for NC State
1. Control time of possession
Unless redshirt junior quarterback Bailey Hockman has found the ability to connect on deep passes consistently since the Virginia Tech game, the Wolfpack's best bet is to methodically move the chains through the run game and control possession.
In essence, it would shorten the game and give North Carolina's offense fewer opportunities to put points on the board. Without starting quarterback redshirt sophomore Devin Leary, who broke his fibula against Duke and will miss at least 4-8 weeks, it's unlikely NC State can match up with UNC in an offensive shootout.
The Pack will take as many long drives that end in points as it can get Saturday. Those types of drives give time for NC State's defense to be well-rested and increase the value of each defensive stop.
2. Win the turnover margin
NC State has lost the turnover margin in only one contest this season, the 45-24 road loss to Virginia Tech. The Pack is 3-0 in games in which it has tied its opponent in takeaways with an average winning margin of five points and won the lone contest in which it won the turnover margin, the 38-20 road win over Virginia.
The Wolfpack managed to create only one turnover in its first three games, a fumble in the season opener against Wake Forest. Since initiating the new "Takeaway Bone" for the Virginia game, the Pack has forced seven turnovers including six interceptions.
If NC State wants to pull the upset Saturday, it will need to find reasons to pull out the "Takeaway Bone" on multiple occasions and prevent turnovers itself.
3. Allow Bailey Hockman to stay true to himself
Hockman, a left-handed thrower, has gone 1-1 as a starter for the Wolfpack this fall. Although the southpaw lacks the arm strength possessed by Leary, he's still capable of leading NC State to wins if he stays true to his game. That is, effectively manage the offense and prevent turnovers.
In the 45-42 win over Wake Forest, he did exactly that. He completed 16 of 23 passes for 191 yards and one touchdown with just one interception. He also rushed for 30 yards on eight carries, including an additional score.
In the Virginia Tech loss, however, he completed just seven of 16 passes for 82 yards with two interceptions and was sacked three times. He also netted -13 rushing yards on five attempts.
To his credit, he completed four of seven passes for 43 yards and a touchdown in the final 17 minutes of the Duke game filling in for Leary. It's also important to note that multiple poor decisions were made by Hockman that the Blue Devils' defense were simply unable to take advantage of.
In order for NC State to make this a competitive game, the Wolfpack requires a performance from Hockman similar to the Wake Forest game and less like the debacle in Blacksburg.
Three numbers to watch
3-0 Dave Doeren's record against UNC in Kenan Memorial Stadium. The Wolfpack head coach's first win over the Tar Heels came on the road in 2014. Three of his four wins over NC State's archrival have been in Chapel Hill. In the past 10 meetings between the two schools, the home team has won just three times.
9 of the last 10 meetings have been won by the team with more rushing yards. The lone exception came in 2013 when UNC beat NC State 27-19 despite the Wolfpack outrushing the Tar Heels 212-152 yards.
11.0 Payton Wilson's tackles per game average in 2020. Wilson, a former UNC commit that flipped to NC State, leads the ACC in the statistic and ranks No. 6 in the FBS. The redshirt sophomore's 19-tackle performance against Duke Saturday was the most by a Wolfpack defender since Earl Wolff had 19 against Clemson in 2012.
——
• Talk about it inside The Wolves' Den
• Subscribe to our podcast on iTunes
• Learn more about our print and digital publication, The Wolfpacker
• Follow us on Twitter: @TheWolfpacker
• Like us on Facebook