Published Feb 17, 2021
Scouting Pittsburgh
Justin H. Williams  •  TheWolfpackCentral
Staff Writer
Twitter
@JustinHWill

NC State Wolfpack basketball (8-9, 4-8 ACC) continues conference play Wednesday afternoon at Pittsburgh at 4:30 p.m. on ACC Network.

The Panthers are 9-7 (5-6 ACC) under head coach Jeff Capel in his third season with the program. Pittsburgh is coming off of a 71-65 road loss to Georgia Tech Sunday.

The Pack is also coming off of a loss, a 69-53 home defeat to Duke.

Here is the scouting report on Pittsburgh:

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Season Overview

Pittsburgh has taken another step forward this season in year three under Capel, but the Panthers' recent struggles will likely keep Pitt out of the NCAA Tournament once again.

After a head-scratching 80-70 loss to Saint Francis (PA) in the season opener, Pittsburgh won eight of its next nine games, which included a 4-1 start in ACC play.

The Panthers, however, have lost five of their last six and would likely need to win out in the regular season for a chance at an at-large bid to the Big Dance.

Pittsburgh was projected to finish 13th in the conference in the preseason ACC media poll.

Rankings

Pittsburgh is ranked No. 80 in the NET rankings (NC State is No. 99), which makes Saturday's contest a "quad two" game for the Pack.

ESPN’s College Basketball Power Index (BPI) has the Panthers ranked No. 77 (NC State is No. 59), and KenPom.com has Pitt ranked No. 76 (NC State is No. 81).

Pittsburgh is also ranked No. 126 in the old RPI formula used by the NCAA — according to RealTimeRPI.com.

Shooting

Pitt's adjusted offensive efficiency is 108.3 (points per 100 possessions) according to KenPom, which ranks 74th nationally.

The Panthers have been about average offensively in conference play. Pittsburgh's adjusted offensive efficiency is 103.9 in league play, good for sixth in the ACC.

Pitt struggles shooting the ball but attacks the glass and gets to the rim frequently.

The Panthers have an adjusted field goal percentage of 48.8, which ranks just 227th among Division I teams. Pitt also shoots 48.6 percent on two-point attempts and 32.8 percent on threes, which rank 218th and 211th nationally, respectively.

The Panthers also score 19.6 percent of their points from the foul line, which ranks 115th in the country.

Advantage: NC State

Rebounding 

Pittsburgh averages 39.3 rebounds per game, which is good for 39th among Division I teams. In conference play, the Panthers are averaging 36.8 rebounds per contest, which ranks third in the ACC.

The Panthers have been strong on the offensive glass. Pittsburgh comes up with an offensive rebound on 34.2 percent of its misses, however, which is good for 30th among Division I teams.

Advantage: Pittsburgh

Defense 

Pitt has an adjusted defensive efficiency of 97.1 (points per 100 possessions) according to KenPom, which ranks 83rd nationally.

The Panthers' adjusted defensive efficiency increases to 104.6 (points per 100 possessions) in league play, which ranks ninth in the ACC.

The good news for NC State: Pittsburgh hasn't forced many turnovers this season. The Panthers force a turnover on just 18.3 percent of defensive possessions, which ranks 214th nationally.

Pitt's defensive strength is holding its opponents to a low percentage from beyond the arc. The Panthers' opponents have shot just 31.5 percent from three this season, good for 84th nationally.

Advantage: Tie

Depth

Pitt has nine players that average 10.5 or more minutes per game, but only seven have appeared in nine or more games this season.

The Panthers have gotten just 26.7 percent of their total minutes from the bench, which ranks 286th nationally.

Advantage: Tie

Player to Watch

Sophomore wing Justin Champagnie is currently the frontrunner for ACC Player of the Year.

The 6-6, 200-pounder leads the league in scoring and rebounding average.

Through 14 contests, the versatile wing is averaging 18.7 points and 11.6 rebounds per game.

He'll present another tough matchup for the Pack similar to Duke's Matthew Hurt, who shot 6-of-7 on three-point attempts Saturday in PNC Arena. Champagnie isn't as big as Hurt, but he provides greater athleticism and versatility. His similarity to Hurt comes from his pick-and-pop ability. Champagnie plays a majority of his minutes as a small-ball big for the Panthers but also has the ability to knock down threes with a perimeter shooting average of 36 percent.

“He's playing at a high level,” NC State head coach Kevin Keatts said of the matchup. “It says a lot about what Jeff] has done with his program, and it says a lot about the kids that are in our league. When we do retain some of these guys who don't turn to the pros right away, you can see how good the players that we have in this league are. He's been one of the bright spots. He's a tough matchup, he can score the ball inside and out. It's unbelievable how he's rebounding the basketball. I don't care who you are, if you've had a game where you got 20 rebounds, you're pretty good.

“He’s a tough matchup for us. It's hard. How do you play him? Do you switch screens like we typically like to do one through four? He's become a three-level scorer. He's scoring around the basket, he's getting out in transition, he's getting to the free-throw line, and he's also been deadly behind the three-point line. He's one of the two guys I think are really a tough matchup problem for us, we just played against one in Matthew Hurt, and I think Champagnie is similar in that way.”

Numbers of Note

66.2 Is redshirt sophomore center Manny Bates' shooting percentage against conference competition this season, which ranks second in the ACC. He is also leading the league in blocks per contest (3.0).

7-0 Is NC State's record this season when the Wolfpack is able to produce 19 or more points off of turnovers. The Pack is 1-9, however, when it converts 18 or fewer points off of takeaways.

5-0 Is Keatts' record against Pittsburgh during his time with the Wolfpack. The most recent meeting was in the Pack's final game of the 2019-20 campaign in the ACC Tournament in Greensboro, which resulted in a 73-58 NC State win.

Likely Starters 

NC State

G — 3 Cam Hayes (6-3, 175, Fr., 6.1 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 3.0 apg)

G — 2 Shakeel Moore (6-1, 180, Fr., 7.2 ppg, 2.5 apg, 1.5 spg)

G — 5 Thomas Allen (6-1, 180, R-Jr., 7.4 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 1.6 apg)

F — 4 Jericole Hellems (6-7, 205, Jr., 13.0 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 1.6 apg)

C — 15 Manny Bates (6-11, 230, R-So., 9.7 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 3.0 bpg)

Pittsburgh

G – 1 Xavier Johnson (6-3, 200, Jr., 14.1 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 6.1 apg)

G – 0 Ithiel Horton (6-3, 200, So. 10.0 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 1.5 apg)

G – 5 Au'Diese Toney (6-6, 210, Jr., 14.2 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 2.3 apg)

F – 11 Justin Champagnie (6-6, 200, So., 18.7 ppg, 11.6 rpg, 1.6 apg)

F –12 Karim Coulibaly (6-8, 215, So., 5.3 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 1.0 apg)

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