NC State (16-6 overall, 4-5 in ACC) travels to play at No. 8-ranked North Carolina (17-4, 7-1 ACC) at 8 p.m. Tuesday at the Dean E. Smith Center in Chapel Hill. Here is a breakdown of the Tar Heels.
Season Overview
The perception was North Carolina’s season would hinge on the success of freshmen Coby White and Nassir Little.
White, who is from Goldsboro, N.C., has been better than expected at point guard and has played a crucial role in UNC getting off to a 7-1 start in the ACC. The decorated Little, who was Rivals.com’s No. 2-ranked player in the country in the class of 2018, has been more uneven in his role off the bench, but is always a threat to be a factor.
UNC has losses against Texas, Michigan, Kentucky and Louisville, with the Cardinals defeat the most shocking, 83-62 on Jan. 12 at the Dean Dome. UNC coach Roy Williams and the Tar Heels got their revenge with a 79-69 road win over the Cardinals on Saturday. Senior star forward Luke Maye led the way with 20 points and 11 boards.
The win over ranked Louisville was UNC’s fifth of the season, including topping a ranked NC State 90-82 on Jan. 8 at PNC Arena. The Tar Heels also knocked off then No. 4-ranked Gonzaga 103-90 on Dec. 15 for their signature win of the season.
Rankings
In the newly established NET rankings done by the NCAA, through games of Feb. 3, the Tar Heels are ranked No. 10 in the country, which means it would qualify as a quad one contest for the Pack. ESPN’s College Basketball Power Index (BPI) and Kenpom.com both have UNC at No. 7.
The Tar Heels are ranked No. 6 in the old RPI formula used by the NCAA — according to RealTimeRPI.com.
For comparison, NC State is 20th in BPI, 34th in NET, 42nd in Kenpom.com and 125th in RPI.
Shooting
UNC’s outside shooting has been better than expected with fifth-year senior Cameron Johnson emerging from the perimeter. The former Pittsburgh grad transfer is shooting an impressive 47.7 percent from beyond the arc.
White was a streaky outside shooter in high school, but has held steady at 36.1 percent and senior wing Kenny Williams is a more than capable outside sniper. He is 12 of 34 on three-pointers in ACC action.
What makes UNC tough to defend is when Maye starts to heat up along the perimeter, giving the Tar Heels four threats from outside. Maye shot 43.1 percent on three-pointers last year, but has fallen to 33.3 this season.
UNC ranks fifth in the ACC, right behind NC State, in shooting 47.0 percent from the field. The Tar Heels are third in the league in shooting 37.3 percent on three-pointers, and tied for fourth with 74.3 percent on free throws.
Rebounding
Few teams in the ACC hit the offensive boards as hard as the Tar Heels, who have four different players with at least 35 offensive rebounds, led by sophomore center Garrison Brooks with 50. The team aspect of rebounding even permeates to the guards with Williams snagging 10 boards against NC State in the first meeting. Six healthy UNC players average at least 3.3 rebounds per game, with Maye checking in at 9.8 a contest.
UNC leads the ACC in rebounding margin (10.2) and defensive rebounds per game (30.4), and are third in the league in offensive rebounds (13.1) per contest, which is right behind NC State and first-place Duke.
Defense
North Carolina can go with a bigger lineup when sophomore Garrison Brooks is at center, but also will play some smaller lineups with Little in the game and Maye slides over to center. North Carolina doesn’t have a true shot-blocker on the roster, with Brooks leading the team with 12 and Little has 11 from the forward spot.
UNC ranks 13th in the ACC with allowing 72.6 points per game, but part of that is playing at a faster tempo. The Tar Heels rise up to No. 7 in the league in field-goal percentage allowed (41.3). UNC has surrendered 177 three-pointers, which is the tied for third in most allowed in the ACC. Opposing teams have shot 32.8 percent on three-pointers, which is tied for 10th in the league.
Depth
UNC always uses its bench with 11 players playing at least 18 games this season. The aforementioned Little is the top performer off the bench and is averaging 10.2 points and 4.6 rebounds in 18.9 minutes per game. He was a non-factor in the first meeting against NC State, making a layup, but he recently went for 23 points in the 103-82 win over Virginia Tech. That was the 11th time Little has reached double figures.
NC State’s pressure defense gave junior backup point guard Seventh Woods fits. Sophomore wing Brandon Robinson is an adept shooter on the wing at 46.2 percent on three-pointers.
Freshman wing Rechon “Leaky” Black missed the Louisville game with an injury, and sophomore center Sterling Manley has been out since Dec. 29.
Star Watch
Cameron Johnson leads UNC in scoring overall, but in the eight conference games, Coby White has emerged as the Tar heels top scoring threat.
The former Wilson (N.C.) Greenfield School standout, who Rivals.com ranked No. 26 overall in the country in the class of 2018, is tied for 10th in the ACC with 16.4 points per game in league action. Overall, he’s contributing 14.8 points per game to go along with 4.2 assists.
The 6-5, 185-pounder torched Texas for 33 points and he went 7 of 10 from three-point land in the 92-89 loss on Nov. 22. He had 27 points, seven rebounds and six assists against Virginia Tech.
White’s ability to drive hard to the rim has always set him apart. He had 19 points in the first meeting against NC State, and has reached double figures in 14 games. White is coming off a clunker against Louisville, missing all six three-point field-goal attempts en route to eight points and four assists.
Stats To Watch
Cameron Johnson likes 3-pointers: NC State’s defense prides itself in trying to make opposing teams shoot two-pointers instead of good looks from three-point land. The 6-9, 210-pound Johnson presents a different kind of problem. He managed to go 4 of 7 on three-pointers in 23 minutes before he cramped up against NC State in the first meeting. He’s hit four or more three-pointers in five games this season, and has tried six or more three-pointers in 11 contests.
UNC moves ball well: The Tar Heels are second in the country and first in the ACC with 19.8 assists per game. UNC averages 31.3 field goals made per game, so ball movement has been a constant theme. It isn’t even due to point guard play with White more of a scorer than passer, though he leads the team with 4.2 assists a contest. What has helped is five different players averaging at least 2.1 assists per game.
Twenty-three turnovers in first meeting: The good ball movement can sometimes be counter-balanced by sloppy turnovers for UNC. The Tar Heels had 20 assists in the first meeting against the Wolfpack, but also 23 turnovers thanks to four different players with three or more, including Maye getting seven. UNC ranks 12th in the ACC with 14.0 turnovers per game.
Game Within The Game: Luke Maye vs. Torin Dorn
Whether it becomes the last meeting between the two veteran players remains to be seen, but they’ll renew pleasantries Tuesday. The 6-8, 240-pound Maye is averaging 14.1 points and 9.8 rebounds per game, and the 6-5, 210-pound Dorn is at 13.8 points and 6.6 rebounds a contest.
Dorn attended Charlotte Vance and Maye went to nearby Cornelius (N.C.) Hough High, and neither were heavily recruited coming out of high school, though Maye had Clemson and at one point Notre Dame chasing him. Dorn’s father by the same name played defensive back for the Tar Heels and Mark Maye was a quarterback for UNC in the mid-1980s.
Dorn started his college career off at hometown Charlotte before transferring to NC State. Maye was a preferred walk-on at UNC before going on scholarship. Maye has become a “Pack killer” of sorts the last two years. He had 21 points and 11 rebounds in the win this season, but he two monstrous efforts a year ago. Maye had 31 points and 12 rebounds in the overtime home loss, and then recorded 33 points and 17 boards in the win over NCSU at PNC Arena.
Dorn had 12 points and 10 boards in the first meeting this season. He combined for 41 points and seven rebounds in the two games a year ago.
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