The first time Virginia played NC State this year, the Wolfpack fell by a single point in overtime. The two teams meet against Thursday in the quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament in Charlotte with a 12:30 p.m. tipoff.
Season Overview
Virginia is one of the premier teams in the country, and only one team has defeated it thus far this year — Duke. The Blue Devils knocked off Virginia twice. Otherwise the Cavs have an unblemished 28-0 mark against teams not-named Duke. UVA went 16-2 in the ACC to claim a share of the regular season league crown and is the top seed by winning the tiebreaker over UNC (whom Virginia defeated 69-61 in Chapel Hill).
Redshirt sophomore forward De'Andre Hunter and junior guard Kyle Guy were both named first-team All-ACC, and junior guard Ty Jerome was a second-team honoree. Hunter was also named the ACC Defensive Player of the Year, and Tony Bennett took home Coach of the Year.
Rankings
In the newly established NET rankings done by the NCAA, through games of March 12, the Cavaliers are ranked No. 1 in the country. ESPN’s College Basketball Power Index (BPI) and Kenpom.com also both have UVA No. 1 in the country.
The Cavaliers are ranked second in the old RPI formula used by the NCAA — according to RealTimeRPI.com.
Virginia is listed No. 2 in both The Associated Press poll and coaches’ poll.
For comparison, NC State is 23rd in BPI, 32nd in NET, 32nd in Kenpom.com and 98th in RPI.
Shooting
Virginia is one of the most dangerous three-point shooting teams in the country. During ACC play, the Cavs made 43.1 percent of its shots from long range. That's up from what it did in non-conference action. For the season, Virginia has made 41.4 percent of its shots from three-point territory, third best in the country and tops in the ACC.
The three-point shooting is part of an efficient offense that leads the ACC in field goal percentage at 47.9 percent.
The Cavs are also one of the league's better free throw shooting teams, making 74.6 percent at the line, 38th best nationally.
Rebounding
Virginia in ACC play outrebounded opponents by an average of 5.7 per game, second best in the ACC behind UNC's 8.6 The Cavs are especially strong on the defensive glass. It is only 12th in league games in offensive boards per contest, but that is partially attributed to its ability to shoot better than most teams.
Defense
Unsurprisingly, Virginia leads the country in points per game (54.6 points) and three-point field-goal percentage (27.3 percent) and is third in the country in field-goal percentage (37.4).
Depth
Virginia comfortably plays eight guys. Lately it has used freshman guard Kihei Clark as a starter in the backcourt and bringing redshirt junior forward Mamadi Diakite off the bench. If that holds, Diakite is part of what may be the most formidable three-man bench in the league. Diakite averaged 7.1 points and 4.0 rebounds per game.
Junior wing Braxton Key is an Alabama transfer that is averaging 6.3 points and 5.5 rebounds in his first year in the program, and promising redshirt sophomore center Jay Huff has blossomed in ACC play. In his past five games Huff has averaged 7.6 points, 4.6 rebounds and 1.2 blocks per game and has the capability of making three-pointers. He's made 9 of 17 from long range in league play.
Stats to watch
Second matchup bump: Virginia played four teams in ACC play twice. All four teams did better the second time around. Notre Dame was 21 points better, Virginia Tech was 16 points, Duke eight points and Louisville seven points. Any improvement by NC State would obviously result in a win.
Turnover margin: A crucial component to NC State taking Virginia to overtime earlier this year was it forced Virginia into 16 turnovers, matching a season-high for the Cavs. NC State committed only eight turnovers. Virginia has only lost the turnover margin in 10 games this year, and that was its most lopsided loss in the stat all season.
Three-pointers made: In losing its first game at Duke, Virginia made only 3 of 17 threes. Against the Pack, it connected on only 4 of 10. When rallying to win at Louisville, Virginia made just 2 of 17 from long range. The Cavs scored a season-low 53 points (in a win) after making only four three-pointers versus Wisconsin.
When Virginia makes threes, it rolls. When it doesn't, it becomes a more winnable game.
Star watch
Bennett doesn't typically have players leave early into the NBA Draft, but he likely will this summer with Hunter. This year Hunter has averaged 15.2 points, 5.2 rebounds and 2.5 assists, playing his way into like lottery status in the draft.
Hunter shoots 53.3 percent from the field, including a sharp 47.3 percent on threes where he has made 35 of 74 tries. He's also a sure-bet at the line, knocking down free throws at a 78.7 percent clip and making 100 (on 127 tries) during the regular season. And as evidence by his Defensive Player of the Year he excels on both sides of the court.
Likely starters:
NC State
PG — 11 Markell Johnson (6-1, 175, Jr., 11.9 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 4.2 apg, 1.0 spg)
SG — 13 C.J. Bryce (6-5, 195, R-Jr., 11.4 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 1.8 apg, 1.2 spg)
G — 10 Braxton Beverly (6-0, 180, Soph., 9.6 ppg, 1.6 rpg, 2.6 apg, 0.9 spg)
F — 2 Torin Dorn (6-5, 210, 5th-Sr., 13.6 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 1.3 apg, 1.0 spg)
C — 33 Wyatt Walker (6-9, 240, R-Jr., 5.1 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 0.9 bpg)
Virginia
G — 0 Kihei Clark (5-9, 155, Fr., 4.1 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 2.3 apg)
G — 5 Kyle Guy (6-2, 175, Jr. 15.3 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 2.0 apg)
G — 11 Ty Jerome (6-5, 195, Jr., 13.5 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 5.3 apg)
F — 12 De'Andre Hunter (6-7, 225, R-Soph., 15.2 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 2.5 apg)
C — 33 Jack Salt (6-10, 250, R-Sr., 3.6 ppg, 3.9 rpg)
Game within the game: Markell Johnson vs. Ty Jerome
There are many games within the game to watch. Can NC State sophomore guard Braxton Beverly match Virginia's Guy in shooting on three-pointers. Two versatile, small-ball fours in Hunter and NC State's fifth-year senior Torin Dorn will battle each other. But the one to watch is on the perimeter.
Johnson had a career game against Clemson in the second round of the ACC Tournament, scoring 23 points and winning the game with a pair of free throws at the line with 2.6 seconds left. Jerome is in many ways the catalyst for Virginia's offense. Despite being limited by a sore back in the first meeting between the two teams, Jerome had 12 points, six rebounds and six assists. He also had an unusual four turnovers.
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