Published Feb 12, 2021
Scouting Duke
Justin H. Williams  •  TheWolfpackCentral
Staff Writer
Twitter
@JustinHWill

NC State Wolfpack basketball (8-8, 4-7 ACC) continues conference play Saturday against Duke in PNC Arena at 4:00 p.m. on ESPN.

The Blue Devils are 7-8 (5-6 ACC) under head coach Mike Krzyzewski in his 41st season with the program. Duke is coming off of a 93-89 loss to Notre Dame Tuesday.

The Pack is also coming off of a loss, a 77-68 home defeat to Syracuse.

Here is the scouting report on Duke:

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Season Overview

Duke has struggled this season and appears destined to miss its first NCAA Tournament since 1995.

The Blue Devils first looked vulnerable in non-conference play, losing home meetings with Big Ten foes Michigan State (75-69) and Illinois (83-68).

Duke went on to win three straight conference games but has since lost six of its last eight, including its last three contests by an average margin of 3.33 points per matchup.

Duke was projected to finish second in the conference in the preseason ACC media poll.

Rankings

Duke is ranked No. 76 in the NET rankings (NC State is No. 87), which makes Saturday's contest a "quad three" game for the Pack.

ESPN’s College Basketball Power Index (BPI) has the Blue Devils ranked No. 42 (NC State is No. 51), and KenPom.com has Cuse ranked No. 41 (NC State is No. 73).

Duke is also ranked No. 153 in the old RPI formula used by the NCAA — according to RealTimeRPI.com.

Shooting

Duke's adjusted offensive efficiency is 114.4 (points per 100 possessions) according to KenPom, which ranks 18th nationally.

The Blue Devils have also been strong offensively in conference play. Duke's adjusted offensive efficiency is 110.0 in league play, good for third in the ACC.

Duke has actually improved its shooting numbers against conference opponents.

The Blue Devils have an effective field goal percentage of 53.5 in league play, which ranks fifth in the ACC. Duke has also shot 53.9 percent on two-point attempts and 34.9 percent on three-point attempts against conference foes, good for fourth and eighth, respectively, in the ACC.

Duke is an average free-throw shooting team but has struggled to get to the line at a high clip. The Blue Devils have shot 71.5 percent from the line, good for 150th nationally, but only 13.4 percent of their points have come from the strike, which ranks 339th among Division I teams.

Advantage: Duke

Rebounding 

Duke is a slightly above-average rebounding team but has found most of its success on the offensive glass.

The Blue Devils average 35.2 rebounds per game against league competition, good for fifth in the ACC, but 11.9 of those are offensive boards, which ranks second in the league behind North Carolina.

Duke grabs an offensive rebound on 32.8 percent of its misses, which ranks 50th nationally.

It also gives up an offensive rebound to opponents on 25.7 percent of forced misses, good for 97th among Division I teams, but the Blue Devils have averaged just 23.3 defensive rebounds per game in league play, which ranks 13th in the ACC.

Advantage: Duke

Defense 

Duke has an adjusted defensive efficiency of 97.5 (points per 100 possessions) according to KenPom, which ranks 95th nationally.

The Blue Devils' adjusted defensive efficiency increases to 107.4 (points per 100 possessions) in league play, which ranks 13th in the ACC.

Similarly to NC State, Duke has fared well in event creation on the defensive end but has struggled to hold opponents to a low shooting percentage.

The Blue Devils' defensive effective field goal percentage is 53.4, which ranks 294th nationally. The culprit has been guarding the perimeter. Duke's opponents have shot 38.9 percent on three-point attempts, good for 329th among Division I teams.

Advantage: NC State

Depth

Duke has eight players that average 12 or more minutes per game, six of which average at least 22.5 minutes per contest.

The Blue Devils have received 25 percent of their minutes from the bench, which ranks 303rd nationally.

Duke may have more options to play in total, but NC State gets more production from its bench players. Ultimately, it's a wash.

Advantage: Tie

Player to Watch

Sophomore forward Matthew Hurt was an early-season ACC Player of the Year candidate until a recent rough stretch on the offensive end.

Nonetheless, Hurt leads the Blue Devils in scoring and rebounding this season. He's averaging 17.7 points and 6.8 rebounds per game.

A 6-9, 235-pounder, Hurt gives Duke a pick-and-pop option down low. The sophomore is averaging 40 percent on three-point attempts and 70.8 percent from the free-throw line.

Hurt also leads the Blue Devils in two-point shooting efficiency, averaging 61.6 percent on attempts inside the arc.

Numbers of Note

8-1 Is NC State's record this season when opponents commit 15 or more turnovers. When the Pack's opponent has less than 15 turnovers, State is 0-7. The Wolfpack's opponents are averaging 20 turnovers per game in NC State wins, and just 12.4 turnovers per contest in losses.

1 Time since 1996 have the Blue Devils been unranked when they've met NC State entering Saturday's matchup. This weekend will mark just the second time these two programs have met as unranked opponents in the past 25 seasons. The last time it happened was 2016, when Duke beat NC State 88-80 in Cameron Indoor Stadium.

2-2 Is head coach Kevin Keatts' record against Duke during his time with the Wolfpack. Both of his wins have come in PNC Arena, including last season's 88-66 home victory over the then-ranked No.6 Blue Devils.

Likely Starters 

NC State

G — 3 Cam Hayes (6-3, 175, Fr., 6.3 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 3.1 apg)

G — 10 Braxton Beverly (6-0, 180, Sr., 6.3 ppg, 2.7 apg, 1.4 spg)

G — 5 Thomas Allen (6-1, 180, R-Jr., 7.6 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 1.5 apg)

F — 4 Jericole Hellems (6-7, 205, Jr., 13.1 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 1.6 apg)

C — 15 Manny Bates (6-11, 230, R-So., 9.8 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 2.9 bpg)

Duke

G – 2 DJ Steward (6-2, 163, Fr., 13.1 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 2.1 apg)

G – 3 Jeremy Roach (6-1, 175, Fr. 9.7 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 2.7 apg)

F – 0 Wendell Moore (6-5, 216, So., 9.9 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 1.9 apg)

F – 1 Jalen Johnson (6-9, 220, Fr., 11.9 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 2.4 apg)

F –21 Mathew Hurt (6-9, 235, So., 17.7 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 1.3 apg)

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