Finally on the board.

At this rate, you'd be pretty successful had you tailed all of my picks through two weeks.

Last week didn't feel as bad as week one, however. I correctly picked UCF over Georgia Tech on a measly 7.5-point line that was inspired by Vegas fanboys who were shocked when the Yellow Jackets "upset" Florida State in week one. Central Florida hammered the Yellow Jackets 49-21 in week two, giving me my first and only win from this series on the season.

Of course, I can't complain about incorrectly picking Wake Forest on a +1 spread. As we all know, NC State would win its season opener over the Deacs 45-42. I truly felt the game was a toss-up, so I stuck with where I saw the value. The line originally opened at NC State -3, which would have given me a push. These darn late-week spreads. The real sharps place their wagers early in the week before the lines start bouncing around.

Then there was Lousiville -2.5. That was just dead wrong. A complete underestimation of Miami. The Cardinals actually outgained the Hurricanes on offense by 31 yards. It was the -3 turnover margin, however, that led to the Miami 47-34 rout. Is the U back? Maybe I'll try that logic to the test this week to find out for sure.

Justin's 2020 ACC spread picks record: 1-5 (Last week: 1-2)

Here are the week three picks:

To me, this spread presents a clear logical option.

Las Vegas continues to show its love in this spread for its ACC darling, Georgia Tech. I understand the buzz around the bees. They were predicted to finish dead last in the preseason ACC media poll and came out of the gate hot with an upset win in Tallahassee over a potentially-fraudulent Florida State team.

What has also been proven over the past two games is that the Yellow Jackets have themselves a quarterback in true freshman Jeff Sims.

But Georgia Tech hasn't proven to be a capable 7.5-point road favorite over any team, let alone a conference opponent. This spread seems shockingly big considering the Yellow Jackets still can't play defense and haven't had a true road trip like the 963-mile trek to Syracuse.

Through two games, the Yellow Jackets have turned the ball over seven times and have a -2 turnover margin. The Orange? Only three turnovers and a +2 margin. Those stats matter for a touchdown plus a two-point conversion favorite facing a conference opponent on the road.

In fact, I like Syracuse coach Dino Babers to find a way to get to 1-2 this Saturday. If you're feeling frisky, look into the +240 moneyline the Orange will afford you. If you're feeling smart, just take the home team on the points.

Justin's pick: Syracuse +7.5

This one is riskier to me. I'd like to call this game the "Matt Carter Fraud Bowl." Loser wins Matt's fraud of the year award.

That isn't fair at all to Miami, who has been very impressive through two weeks including the previously mentioned road victory over nationally-ranked Lousiville.

Matt loved to remind me how he doesn't trust either of these teams entering the season. Particularly after preseason ACC last-place pick Georgia Tech beat the Noles in their first and only game of 2020 thus far 16-13.

If Miami goes on to win this game handily, as predicted by the 11.5-point spread, Matt may have to acknowledge the U is on its way back.

Frankly, the small sample size of numbers from this season suggests that Florida State has no chance in this game. The Seminoles gained 307 yards and scored a measly 13 points against a team that let up 660 yards and 49 points to a non-Power Five program just one week later.

Compare that to Miami, who has been an offensive juggernaut through two weeks with the ability to get it done on the ground and through the air. Star transfer quarterback D'Eriq King threw for 325 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions Saturday in the win over Lousiville. The week before, the Hurricanes ran for 337 yards in a win over UAB.

Considering Florida State's clear weakness on offense is on the offensive line and Miami's clear strength on defense is the pass rush up front, I predict Saturday will be a really tough game for first year Seminoles coach Mike Norvell and co.

Don't let me down, Miami.

Justin's pick: Miami -11.5

Now for the spread pick you've all been waiting for. As you may have seen in our game predictions this week, I picked the Pack to get its first win over Virginia Tech since 2004.

It was actually the Hokies' first conference game as members of the ACC. The 17-16 Wolfpack win took place in Lane Stadium in Blacksburg against a sideline that included iconic Hokies head coach Frank Beamer, defensive coordinator Bud Foster and defensive line coach Charley Wiles.

All three of those guys have moved on from the Virginia Tech program but NC State now gets to claim Wiles as its D-Line coach. After spending the past 23 seasons in Blacksburg, Wiles will now take on his former team for the first time on the opposing sideline.

When made available to media members Wednesday, he talked about this game is about the players, not him. Exactly what a good coach should say. But as much as junior nose tackle Alim McNeill and graduate defensive end Daniel Joseph seem to enjoy having Wiles as their position coach, my gut says they find a way to give him a little something extra on the defensive front in what will be an emotional game.

Assuming the Pack defense plays better overall than it did in the 45-42 win over Wake Forest, I'm confident the offense has enough juice to squeak out what I anticipate to be a close one in Blacksburg.

Let's not go crazy after week one though. This game is ultimately another toss-up considering the unknowns of Virginia Tech's roster availability and who NC State will start at quarterback.

Be smart and just take the points.

Justin's pick: NC State +7

Matt's 2020 ACC football Moneyline record: 1-1

Syracuse +240 at home over Georgia Tech (12:00 p.m.)

*All lines via Bovada as of Thursday, Sept. 24 and line history from Oddshark.

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