In my intro last week, I shared my goal of getting to .500 for the year in the final stretch of the season.
Last weekend included, I had five weeks remaining and had to average a 2-1 record to accomplish the return to mediocrity.
So far, so good.
Entering the primetime showdown between Clemson and Notre Dame, I felt confident that I could have my first 3-0 week of the season. It was close, but the Irish made me pay for taking the No. 1 Clemson Tigers.
I'm done with Clemson. Their spreads have fooled me every time I try.
I never had to sweat my NC State +10.5 and Pittsburgh +1.5 picks, however. The Wolfpack took No. 11 Miami down to the wire and the Panthers clobbered Florida State.
Now I just need four more weeks like the last one. It won't be easy, but here goes nothing.
Justin's 2020 ACC spread picks record: 10-14 (Last week: 2-1)
Here are my week ten picks:
No. 9 Miami (+2) at Virginia Tech 12:00 p.m.
What does Vegas know that I don't here? This spread reeks, but I'll take the bait.
Maybe the bookmakers are banking on Hurricanes quarterback D'Eriq King coming back down to earth this week after a Heisman-like performance in Carter-Finley Stadium last Friday.
King had the game of his career in the 44-41 win over NC State. He completed 31 of 41 passes for 430 yards and five touchdowns. He also rushed for 105 yards on 15 carries.
The law of averages suggests that won't happen again this week.
Virginia Tech, meanwhile, has lost three of its last five including a heartbreaking 38-35 loss at the hands of undefeated Liberty.
I suspect the Hokies will come out mad and give Miami everything it has in this game.
Now that I look back, I'm really making the case for why Virginia Tech might be the smart pick.
The Hurricanes are still playing with an outside shot at making the ACC Championship game with only one loss. Miami still has plenty to play for, and Manny Diaz and company find a way to get it done in Blacksburg.
Justin's pick: Miami +2
No. 2 Notre Dame at Boston College (+13) 3:30 p.m.
Notre Dame is coming off of a gutsy 47-40 double-overtime victory over No. 1 Clemson, its first win over a top-ranked opponent since 1993 in "The Game of the Century" when it beat No. 1 Florida State 31-24.
The Fighting Irish just needed one more win after that to earn a spot in the national championship. All that stood in Notre Dame's way was, you guessed it, Boston College.
The Eagles beat Notre Dame 41-39 in the Holy War that year to prevent the Fighting Irish from competing for a national title.
Fast forward to 2020, and the friend with benefits of the ACC finds itself in a familiar position.
Boston College has been feisty all year. Add in the fact that Eagles quarterback Phil Jurkovic, who has played tremendously in 2020, is a transfer from Notre Dame after he was unable to beat out Ian Book for the starting job.
Jurkovic will be a man on a mission in this rivalry game to prove that Notre Dame went with the wrong guy.
If you're feeling lucky, it wouldn't hurt to throw a few coins on the +335 Moneyline for the underdog Eagles.
I still think the Irish will find a way to win but considering they poured it out last Saturday in the double-overtime win over Clemson, this game should be closer than the near two-touchdown spread indicates.
Justin's pick: Boston College +13
Florida State at NC State (-10) 7:30 p.m.
Something about seeing Florida State in uniform always makes me nervous picking against it as a heavy underdog.
Theoretically, they should have the talent to be much better than what their record shows.
But it appears things are falling apart this season in Tallahassee. Florida State's best receiver is no longer with the program. Its future pro defensive tackle has called it a season after suffering an injury. It lost a veteran offensive tackle for the season due to injury, and former starting quarterback James Blackman will transfer at the end of the year.
The only positive from Florida State over the past couple of weeks has been the play of redshirt sophomore quarterback Jordan Travis, who leads the Seminoles in rushing and passing yards.
Travis suffered an injury last Saturday in FSU's 41-17 loss to Pittsburgh, however. It's unclear whether he'll be available against the Wolfpack Saturday but based on the line movement of three points in the last 48 hours, I suspect Vegas knows something that we don't yet.
Assuming NC State plays as well as it did against Miami at home last Friday, the Wolfpack shouldn't have a problem covering this spread en route to a 5-3 record.
Justin's pick: NC State -10
Matt's Moneyline Lock of the Week
Matt's 2020 ACC football Moneyline record: 4-4
Miami +105 over Virginia Tech on the road
*All lines via Bovada as of Thursday, Nov. 12 and line history from Oddshark.
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