I deserve all the shaming in the world for having the audacity to pick against Clemson in a game against a ranked opponent in Death Valley.

Hopefully you recognized that stupidity for what it was and faded me there.

It's been a rough start for yours truly in the first five weeks of ACC picks against the spread, but I truly think I will turn the corner this week to get around .500 for the season.

Maybe it's a false sense of hope. Or maybe, just maybe, I've learned from my mistakes.

Look, at least I'm 100 percent candid about my track record. Can you say the same about the plethora of other sportswriters making their weekly picks?

This is all in good fun.

It hasn't all been bad. Since an 0-3 start in week one, I've gone 5-7 since. That's at least somewhat respectable.

Not to mention, I've hit the nail on the head in consecutive weeks with my NC State picks. Granted, Vegas came up with juicy lines, but that's the name of the game. The Wolfpack is now 3-1 ATS and has already exceeded its two wins ATS from 2019.

This is an NC State site after all. I know why most of you are reading this. So, without further ado, I'll give my analysis on the State-Duke spread along with a couple of other intriguing plays to consider.

Justin's 2020 ACC spread picks record: 5-10 (Last week: 1-2)

Here are the week six picks:

This matchup all of a sudden has turned into the most important game of the year for both of these teams.

Let's start with Pittsburgh. The Panthers have now lost back-to-back games by one point to unranked teams. Granted, NC State and Boston College have proven to be feistier than their preseason forecasts predicted, but the ACC darkhorse darlings are now 2-2 in conference play.

Pittsburgh has allowed more points in each of the past two weeks than it did in its first three games combined. Despite its struggles over the past two Saturday, Pitt still has one of the best defenses in the country, on paper. Its pass rush is still the second-highest graded and its run defense is the third-highest graded in Division I according to Pro Football Focus (PFF).

Now the Panthers are tasked with facing their first ranked opponent of the season in a road trip to Hard Rock Stadium. It won't get any easier next week when they host No. 4 Notre Dame in Heinz Field.

Miami, meanwhile, is coming off of an eye-opening beatdown against No. 1 Clemson in Death Valley. As good as the Hurricanes offense looked against UAB, Lousiville and Florida State, it was exposed against Tigers defensive coordinator Brent Venables' blitz packages and coverage schemes.

Now "The U" will have to avoid a hangover game after a complete manhandling at the hands of the top-ranked team in the nation. Easier said than done. Since the beginning of the 2015 season, ACC teams that play Clemson annually have won just 27.6 percent of its games following a matchup with Clemson according to WRALSportsFan's Joe Giglio. As he will tell you, the Tigers don't just beat you once, they beat you twice.

Hurricanes quarterback De'Eriq King was effective through the air and on the ground in Miami's first three wins but was completely inefficient in the passing game against Clemson last Saturday. He completed just 12 of 28 passes for 121 yards and two interceptions.

We'll find out soon enough if Venables' game plan will provide the blueprint to stopping Miami's offense, which arguably has some of the most explosive skill players in the ACC. I have a feeling that the Pittsburgh defense will be able to effectively copycat what the Tigers did to King last Saturday.

King will have a better game than he did in the 42-17 loss to Clemson, but the Panthers' stout run defense will force him to find ways to move the chains through the air. I see this as a toss-up game that should come down to one possession. It could go either way, but I'll take the points.

Justin's pick: Pittsburgh +13.5

Through five weeks of ACC football, Boston College has officially earned the title as the feistiest team in the conference.

The Eagles are now 3-1 with their lone loss coming at the expense of No. 5 North Carolina in a game in which they could have taken the game to overtime with a two-point conversion in the final seconds.

Boston College could have let the emotional loss lead to a hangover against a good Pittsburgh team. Instead, the Eagles outlasted the Panthers in an overtime thriller in which they only netted 30 rushing yards and gave up six sacks.

Pitt's defense is nasty, and yet redshirt sophomore quarterback Phil Jurkovec lit up the Panthers for 358 yards passing and three touchdowns.

Meanwhile, Virginia Tech is coming off of a 56-45 loss to the Tar Heels in Chapel Hill in which it forfeited 656 yards of offense to North Carolina. You read that correctly. 656.

The Hokies ran for 260 yards rushing themselves, but can they decide on a quarterback? I assume head coach Justin Fuente will go with signal-caller Hendon Hooker, who had a nice performance with 7-of-13 passing for 136 yards and two touchdowns along with 29 yards rushing including one touchdown on the ground.

I still like Virginia Tech to bounce back this Saturday in its return to Lane Stadium, but this spread is too high. Quite disrespecting Boston College, Vegas. I'm taking the points.

Justin's pick: Boston College +13

Classic trap game scenario for the Wolfpack, right?

All signs would suggest that is the case for NC State, who has surprised many with its quick 3-1 start to the season in conference play, but there is unique context to this game that makes me think that the Pack can take care of business.

I know what "The Bear" tweeted. "NC State is 1-4* ATS in its last five games as a favorite and lost three of the last five outright," College Gameday gambling correspondent Chris Fallica said in a Tweet Thursday. He's ignoring the first point he made, however.

The Wolfpack hasn't been favored since its disappointing 4-8 campaign in 2019. This isn't the same team though.

NC State is still a young team, particularly on defense, but it has been growing up before our eyes this fall. It has fought back from adversity on numerous occasions, something it couldn't say last year.

First, it was the loss of starting redshirt sophomore quarterback Devin Leary in the season opener due to a 20-day quarantine as a result from contact tracing protocol during the program's cluster in August. Redshirt junior back-up quarterback Bailey Hockman came out as cool as a cucumber in the 45-42 win over Wake Forest, a game in which the Wolfpack lost a 14-point lead twice and still found a way to win.

Then the Pack got completely manhandled by Virginia Tech in a 45-21 loss in Blacksburg, but it bounced back quickly in the next game. NC State went up to Heinz Field as 14-point underdogs and beat the No. 24 Pitt Panthers 30-29 with a gutsy last-minute touchdown drive.

It had to keep that same energy on the road as 7.5-point underdogs against Virginia last week and it did. The Pack handily took care of the Cavaliers 38-21 in a game it could have easily led 31-0 at halftime.

Now the Wolfpack just has to take care of business at home against a Duke team that has turned the ball over 19 times through five games, the most of any team at the FBS level.

Can NC State stuff happen? You betcha. But I don't see any way this Wolfpack team doesn't beat the Blue Devils by at least a touchdown in Carter-Finley Stadium unless it loses the turnover margin or goes without a valuable player at the last second due to contact tracing protocol. There's no reason to believe either of those things will happen other than a sheer streak of bad luck.

Take care of the ball, give Leary time in the pocket and give multiple reasons to pull out the new "Takeaway Bone" and NC State should be 4-1 before it heads to Kenan Stadium to take on archrival UNC in what would be a ranked matchup. I'm not getting cute here.

Justin's pick: NC State -4.5

Matt's 2020 ACC football Moneyline record: 3-2

Syracuse +135 over Liberty 12:00 p.m.

*All lines via Bovada as of Thursday, Oct. 15 and line history from Oddshark.

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