It felt good to pick NC State as a favorite and see it cover the spread.

It also felt good to have a winning week a change.

Wolfpack -4.5? Bingo.

Pittsburgh +13.5? The Panthers hung on by a thread, bless their hearts.

Boston College +13? I knew it was a good pick but the Hokies had other ideas. What can you do when Virginia Tech quarterback Hendon Hooker and running back Khalil Herbert combine for 307 yards rushing?

Makes that road loss in Blacksburg in game two sting less doesn't it, Pack fans?

I'm not going to get ahead of myself after last week. I've done this thing six times now and only twice have I had a winning slate. Caveat emptor.

Let's see if we can get a streak going.

Justin's 2020 ACC spread picks record: 7-11 (Last week: 2-1)

Here are the week seven picks:

I felt extremely confident picking Pittsburgh with a 13.5-point handicap against a Miami team that was just coming off of a butt-whooping to Clemson. That was before I realized starting quarterback Kenny Pickett was going to be out due to injury.

He apparently tweaked his ankle in the overtime loss to Boston College nearly two weeks ago.

It's not clear if Pickett will return for the big matchup with the Fighting Irish. Panthers coach Pat Narduzzi has been cryptic in his availabilities this week as it relates to the condition of his QB1.

If Pickett is ready to go, I'm putting Notre Dame on upset alert. If he's not, that's okay too. I don't think the Panthers can be the Irish without their senior signal-caller, but redshirt freshman back-up Joey Yellen proved to be more than capable of covering spreads against ranked competition.

The 6-3, 215-pounder completed 22 of 46 passes for 277 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions against the Hurricanes.

If he ends up with the start in Pickett's absence and can manage to not turn the ball over against Notre Dame, I think Pittsburgh's run defense can keep the Irish in check all afternoon.

Not to mention, Notre Dame hasn't played anybody yet. Here are the results from its first four games:

-Outlasted Duke at home 27-13

-CrushedUSF at home 52-0 (ECU won by 20 on the road against USF if that tells you anything.)

-Handled Florida State at home 42-6

-Squeaked by Lousiville at home 12-7

Now the Irish have to play its first good team of the season AND its first road team of the season. I'll take the points.

Justin's pick: Pittsburgh +10

Remember that hangover effect I was talking about last Friday regarding teams that played Clemson the week before?

After Miami's win over Pitt Saturday, ACC teams that played Clemson in the week prior have won just 30 percent of the time since the beginning of the 2020 season.

Credit to Joe Giglio of WRALSportsFan for bringing that yellow pad stat to my attention on the Twitterverse last week. He's struggling to beat a cat right now with his picks, but his observatory stats are still great.

Speaking of cats and hangovers, this weekend could be a real Katzenjammer for Georgia Tech. For those not in the know, that's German for a "cat's wail" to describe the cries of someone experiencing a terrible headache after a night of drinking.

The Yellow Jackets lost to Clemson 73-7 last week. At home too. That's soul-crushing.

I think Georgia Tech will eventually bounce back, but it might take more than a week after a loss like that.

Not to mention, Boston College is coming off of a tough 26-point loss itself at the hands of Virginia Tech. It allowed Hokies quarterback Hendon Hooker to rush for 164 yards and three touchdowns on 18 carries. The Eagles could have issues with Georgia Tech freshman dual-threat quarterback Jeff Sims.

My gut tells me, however, that BC comes out on top here in a shootout. Eagles quarterback Phil Jurkovec ranks No. 5 in the FBS with 1,526 total passing yards on the season.

Boston College covers.

Justin's pick: Boston College -3.5

.I'll admit it. I've given myself a little cushion here. I saw the spread go as high as 17.5 early in the week before beginning to trickle down. It should end up somewhere around 16 or 15.5 before kickoff on Saturday.

Keep in mind, national bettors are banking on a UNC get-right game after its first loss and counting on NC State's quarterback situation to play to the Pack's demise.

And it very well could.

But I think it's much more likely the Wolfpack's coaching staff will find a way to put now-starting redshirting junior quarterback Bailey Hockman in a position to succeed on Saturday.

The goal for Hockman is to complete more than 50 percent of his passes and not turn the ball over. If he does that, it should open up the run game enough for the Pack to take advantage of the Tar Heels rush defense which is the lowest-graded in the ACC according to Pro Football Focus (PFF).

This three-possession spread assumes that either NC State won't be able to score more than one touchdown in this game or UNC's offense is going to light it up and score five or more touchdowns.

The Tar Heels' defense is not good enough to stop offensive coordinator Tim Beck and his trio of running backs, junior Ricky Person Jr. and sophomores Zonovan "Bam" Knight and Jordan Houston, to under 20 points.

The Wolfpack's defense has stepped up over the past three weeks, particularly in the run game. While Carolina has two of the top five backs in the ACC in terms of yards per carry with senior Michael Carter (8.4) and junior Javonte Williams (6.8), NC State's run defense has stopped its last three opponents to just 101 yards per contest and 2.8 yards per carry.

Something will have to give, but my gut tells me this is not going to be a cakewalk for last season's ACC Freshman of the Year quarterback Sam Howell and his Tar Heels.

I took UNC 35-31 in my official game prediction and that would put the Pack well within the point spread. At the time of writing this, picking NC State on the Moneyline gives you +475. That's tempting enough to put a couple of coins on considering the randomness of this rivalry.

Justin's pick: NC State +17

Matt's 2020 ACC football Moneyline record: 3-3

*I don't think Matt is going to pick Syracuse again this season.*

Boston College -160 over Georgia Tech 4:00 p.m.

*All lines via Bovada as of Thursday, Oct. 22 and line history from Oddshark.

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