Picking the spread: ACC football week nine

Just like the Wolfpack, I took a bye week in week eight.

Also like the Wolfpack, my week seven did not go as planned.

I couldn't have been more off picking both NC State and Pittsburgh on the points against ranked opponents. There was value there, but the Pack and the Panthers didn't show up two weekends ago.

Boston College, however, made me look good. I took the Eagles -3.5 and they took care of business against Georgia Tech 48-27.

There is still a pathway for me to finish out the season .500. I have five weeks left including this one. I'll have to go 10-5 in that stretch, which means I need to average a 2-1 record every week. Let's see if we can make that happen.

If not, at least it's 2020 and I can still be bowl eligible.

Justin's 2020 ACC spread picks record: 8-13 (Last week: 1-2)

Here are the week nine picks:

I'm not sure how motivated either of these teams will be Saturday, so this one is hard to gauge.

On one hand, I see Pittsburgh as clearly the better team on paper. On the other, the Panthers looked like they were giving up on the season in their last game before their bye week, a 45-3 loss to Notre Dame.

The fact that quarterback Kenny Pickett is doubtful to return doesn't help matters either.

Meanwhile, Florida State seemed to potentially turn a corner when it beat then-ranked No. 5 North Carolina 31-28 in Tallahassee. It followed that up by getting shellacked 48-16 by Lousiville before its own bye week.

Now both teams will be well-rested coming off of lopsided affairs.

It doesn't give me much confidence that Pittsburgh's future NFL safety Paris Ford has opted out for the rest season, but I still have faith in the Panthers' defense around him.

Considering Florida State may have the second-most suspect offensive line in the ACC behind only Syracuse, I give a strong edge to the Pittsburgh D-Line and its still-elite pass rush.

I like Pitt to win outright, but I'll take the point and a half in case the Panthers lose what would be their third one-point defeat this season.

Justin's pick: Pittsburgh +1.5

There's just about every reason in the world to take Notre Dame in this one.

For starters, Clemson's future No. 1 pick of the NFL Draft quarterback Trevor Lawerence is out due to testing positive for COVID-19 in the last 10 days.

Clemson struggled to get past Boston College at home last week without its star quarterback and won by its slimmest margin of the year, 34-28.

Notre Dame had its breakout game two weeks ago in the 45-3 road beat down of Pitt and took care of business last week against Georgia Tech 31-13.

Not to mention, Note Dame will get home-field advantage. Whatever that means in 2020.

Las Vegas has it right where it wants you, doubting the No. 1 Clemson Tigers. The bookmakers would love you to bet on Notre Dame.

I see this as the best sale of the year to pick Clemson. The Tigers just have to cover by one touchdown? Sign me up.

We're still talking about a Brent Venables-coached defense filled with studs and a back-up freshman quarterback in D.J. Uiagalelei that happens to be a five-star that was the No. 1 quarterback in the country according to Rivals.

Don't doubt Clemson.

Justin's pick: Clemson -5

The spread for this game has been settled in at 10.5 all week. I think it's because Vegas hit the nail on the head with this one.

Both of these teams are coming into this game off of a bye week with something to prove.

Miami hasn't been the same since getting beat up in Death Valley by Clemson. It beat Pitt by 12 and Virginia by five in the weeks leading up to the bye.

NC State didn't enter the bye week with much momentum either. Starting redshirt sophomore quarterback Devin Leary broke his fibula in the third quarter of its last win and the Wolfpack entered the bye week coming off of a 48-21 butt-whooping to archrival UNC.

I suspect Miami quarterback D'Eriq King will give NC State problems with his elite dual-threat ability, but the Pack's defense will still have plenty to prove after it allowed the Tar Heels to rush for more than 320 yards two weekends ago.

I also expect NC State to get its running backs going in this one considering the Hurricanes' strong pass rush. That's a recipe for success so far for this Wolfpack team.

I'm going to stick with my final score prediction for this game and take the points. I have Miami winning 31-23, which would be just enough for NC State to advance to 5-2 this season ATS.

Justin's pick: NC State +10.5

Matt's 2020 ACC football Moneyline record: 4-3

Florida State -125 over Pittsburgh

*All lines via Bovada as of Thursday, Nov. 5 and line history from Oddshark.

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