Man, I really needed a 2-1 week. At least I picked the one that mattered the most correctly.

Let's start with the good: NC State +14. The Wolfpack not only covered the spread with ease against No. 24 Pittsburgh in Heinz Field Saturday, but it also won the game outright. A bettor could have at least quadrupled their wager had they taken the Pack straight up against the Panthers. I was not that bold, but at least the 14-point spread never even came close.

Then there was the bad. I fell into the temptation of picking teams I was impressed with to cover spreads that were simply too big. Good teams win, great teams cover.

First, it was Virginia Tech -11.5. The Hokies won the game 38-31 but it wasn't enough. Two Blue Devils touchdowns in the fourth quarter sank my bet. Had I known Virginia Tech was going to be impacted by contact tracing quarantines even more than it had in its 45-24 opening win over NC State, I likely would have left the game alone. That's college football in 2020 for you.

Then there was Clemson -28. Again, a big spread that seemed a bit more manageable than the 30+ point spreads the Tigers yielded in the first two weeks. Clemson beat Virginia 41-23. I'll admit it, I underestimated the Cavaliers. Considering the Tigers were playing in Death Valley following a bye week, I thought this was an easy pick. Cavaliers quarterback Brennan Armstrong had other ideas. The No. 1 Clemson Tigers are now 0-3 ATS in 2020.

Will I learn from my mistakes with Clemson this week? Find out below.

Justin's 2020 ACC spread picks record: 4-8 (Last week: 1-2)

Here are the week five picks:

The last time I took Syracuse as a home dog, it worked out pretty well. Not only did the wager hit, the Orange won the game outright as 7.5-point underdogs to Georgia Tech.

That spread was insanity and I'm getting similar vibes from this one.

I don't have a ton of faith in Syracuse, but it's more than I have in Duke.

Remember when I took Notre Dame to cover against the Blue Devils in week one? Of course you don't. My reasoning behind that play, however, was that Clemson transfer quarterback Chase Brice was not going to be as sharp as many college football fans may have expected.

It's not an indictment on Brice. It's a realization that his numbers in games at Clemson are not comparable to how he would perform for David Cutcliffe and co. When Brice wore the orange and purple, he had guys like Tee Higgins, Hunter Renfrow, Justyn Ross and Amari Rodgers to throw to.

Nothing against Duke's pass catchers, but they're not those guys.

Brice played well against now No. 5 Notre Dame in South Bend. He completed 20 of 37 passes for 259 yards and rushed for 16 yards and one score. Pretty solid, turnover-free football. Proved me wrong in week one.

In the last three games, however, he's thrown seven interceptions compared to just three touchdowns. He's also netted -41 rushing yards and has taken 13 sacks.

It's not all his fault, which is exactly my point. It's just tougher to get it done when you don't have a field full of future NFL targets to throw to.

Brice will improve as the season moves along, but not enough to get it done in the Carrier Dome against Syracuse who is coming off of a bye week. Give me the Orange.

Justin's pick: Syracuse +2

The ACC matchup everyone has been waiting for this season. In years past, this game would be grossly overhyped leading up to a dominating performance by Clemson in its "toughest ACC test of the season."

I'm not getting that feeling this year, though. Call me crazy, but I'm onboard the Miami hype train.

The Hurricanes have yet to show any real weakness. D'Eriq King has lived up to expectations at quarterback, the run game is phenomenal and the Hurricanes' pass rush is going to put Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawerence to the test.

Speaking of which, Lawerence and two-time ACC Player of the Year senior running back Travis Etienne, have been really good as expected for the Tigers. I'm still uncertain of Lawerence's receivers, though.

In the absence of Justyn Ross, Amari Rodgers has been left with all of the heavy lifting in the receiving corps. Clemson's receivers have combined for six drops through three games, half of which appeared like they could have gone for touchdowns. That's unlike them, and I still have questions about the Tigers before I'm ready to doubt each and every opponent they play.

Also important to note, Miami is 3-0 ATS this season compared to Clemson who is 0-3. Las Vegas loves giving enormous lines to Clemson because the bookmakers know idiots like me will take them. Not this week, Vegas.

Miami is coming off of a bye week while Clemson took four quarters at home to take care of a talent level still to be determined Virginia team. I took the Hurricanes straight up on our message board's Week five pick' em and I'm taking them on the points here.

Justin's pick: Miami +14

NC State is coming off of its first win against a ranked opponent since 2017 and arguably one of the biggest victories of the Dave Doeren era.

Any seasoned Wolfpack fan would anticipate a letdown following such an emotional, impressive win as was the case in Heinz Field Saturday. But Doeren's teams have been historically good following big wins.

The eighth-year NC State head coach is 2-0 in games following a win against a ranked opponent during his tenure in Raleigh. Can he make the trend a pattern? I'd like to think so.

Unfortunately, I've somehow found a way to predict the opposite outcome for every one of the Pack's games so far this fall. At least I'm 1-2 picking the Wolfpack against the spread after Saturday.

This is why I picked Virginia 38-35 in my official game prediction this week. It's not that I'm doubting the Pack, I just don't want to jinx it.

My gut tells me NC State finds a way to win, but the stats from Virginia quarterback Brennan Armstrong concern me. He currently leads the ACC in total offense averaging 337.5 yards per game. He's an elite runner that isn't afraid to lower his shoulder into defenders and he's serviceable enough in the passing game to keep opposing defense true.

If NC State wants to leave Charlottesville 3-1, it will have to do a better job of containing Armstrong than it did with Kenny Pickett. The Panthers quarterback combined for 451 yards of total offense and three touchdowns against the Pack last weekend.

I'm going with my original game score prediction on this one.

Justin's pick: NC State +9

Matt's 2020 ACC football Moneyline record: 3-1

Syracuse +100 over Duke at home (12:30 p.m.)

*All lines via Bovada as of Thursday, Oct. 8 and line history from Oddshark.

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