Picking the spread: ACC football week eleven

One point. That was the difference between my first 3-0 week and 2-1 last weekend.

They say football is a game of inches. The same can apply for picking games on the spread. Every point matters.

I took Boston College +13, and Notre Dame handled the Eagles 45-31. Granted, it could have been more considering the Irish ran out the clock inside of Boston College territory to finish the game.

Nonetheless, the small margin makes the loss sting more.

But I'm still alive. I calculated two weeks ago that I would need to go 2-1 in the final five weekends to finish the season .500. I've been able to do that through the first two of those five weeks.

Despite all signals telling me it was a bad idea, I took No. 9 Miami +2 at Virginia Tech. The Hurricanes escaped Blacksburg with a one-point victory.

I was much more confident with my NC State -10 pick against struggling Florida State.

As I mentioned last week, something was suspicious about the mid-week line jump from seven to 10. Vegas must have magically had a hunch that Seminoles quarterback Jordan Travis wasn't making the trip to Raleigh before we knew.

Vegas always knows.

Can I make it three winning weeks in a row? I hate this weekend's slate, but let's see what happens.

Justin's 2020 ACC spread picks record: 12-15 (Last week: 2-1)

Here are my week 11 picks:

After I picked Clemson -5 against Notre Dame, and the Tigers lost in double overtime to the Irish in South Bend, I swore I was not going to touch another one of their games this season.

I have yet to successfully pick a Clemson game correctly this year. The spreads for the Tigers are tough because they're constantly inflated.

Of course, everyone wants to pick Clemson, so Vegas just has to set a high number that will still be palatable.

Frankly, if I had a better selection of games this week, I would stay clear of this game.

With that said, I'm going to take the Tigers to cover a five-touchdown spread.

Clemson is coming off of a bye week after a loss to Notre Dame. It knows it can't lose another game this year if it wants to make the College Football Playoff.

Now the Tigers will get quarterback and future No. 1 pick of the 2021 NFL Draft Trevor Lawerence back.

I suspect Clemson and Lawerence will take out its frustration on the struggling Seminoles and will leave in the starters just long enough to cover the spread.

Justin's pick: Clemson -35

Virginia Tech has lost three of its last four and could be in the process of spiraling out of control in a season where it would not be alone in checking out for the rest of the fall.

Meanwhile, Pittsburgh has only had to play one game in the past 27 days. The Panthers crushed the Hokies 41-17 in Tallahassee on Nov. 7 with quarterback Kenny Pickett back under center.

Future NFL safety Paris Ford opted out of the rest of the season before that game. His departure certainly doesn't help matters, but it was encouraging to see the Panthers end a four-game losing streak that started with a 30-29 loss to the Wolfpack in early October.

I view this game as a toss-up between two Coastal Division programs that have had disappointing years despite both having high hopes entering the season.

Virginia Tech was clobbered by a COVID-19 cluster in September and has struggled to find a rhythm despite showing flashes against NC State in the opener and Boston College last month.

Pittsburgh was a strong Top 25 team at the beginning of the season but lost two straight games to NC State and Boston College by one point each. It lost Pickett and the next two games to ranked opponents Miami and Notre Dame.

I still think the Panthers are better than their record indicates. Even without Ford.

This is a 50-50 game, and I'll play the odds and take the home team on the points.

Justin's pick: Pittsburgh +3

On paper, Liberty should be the favorite in this contest.

The Flames are nationally ranked and undefeated through eight contests, including two wins to ACC programs in Syracuse and Virginia Tech.

The rest of Liberty's schedule, however, has been anything but impressive. Two of its wins have come against FCS opponents.

Not to mention, Syracuse has fewer players on scholarship this season than most FCS programs due to opt-outs. You may as well add the Orange to that list.

NC State has played well since its bye week three weeks ago.

The Pack had No. 11 Miami beat for 55 minutes but lost in heartbreaking fashion to the Hurricanes 44-41. It followed that up with a 38-22 lopsided win over Florida State last Saturday.

NC State will now host its third consecutive night game in Carter-Finley Stadium in three weeks against an equally-confident Liberty team.

Flames quarterback Malik Willis should give the Wolfpack plenty of problems with his dual-threat ability, but I have my doubts about Liberty's defense. While the Flames appear to be a top-tier defense on paper, Virginia Tech is the only team Liberty has played that could run the ball competently.

Look for the Wolfpack to put Liberty's run defense to the test with running backs Zonovan Knight and Ricky Person Jr. It wouldn't hurt to get another career performance from redshirt junior quarterback Bailey Hockman, who has played lights out in the past two contests.

This is a "prove it" game for coach Hugh Freeze and the Flames. Liberty is spunky and should push the Pack, but I'm not sold on the hype.

Justin's pick: NC State -3.5

Matt's 2020 ACC football Moneyline record: 5-4

Virginia Tech -150 over Pittsburgh on the road.

*All lines via Bovada as of Thursday, Nov. 19 and line history from Oddshark.

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