Published Dec 11, 2020
Picking the spread: ACC football week 14
Justin H. Williams  •  TheWolfpackCentral
Staff Writer
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@JustinHWill

After 13 weeks of making picks during this unprecedented, roller coaster of an ACC football season, I had my first clean sheet.

What makes last weekend's card even better is that it left me with a .500 record at the conclusion of the Wolfpack's regular season.

Sitting at 8-13 after week eight, my goal was to finish the season with a 50 percent success rate. After a couple of canceled Florida State games in weeks 12 and 13, that goal required a 3-0 performance last weekend.

It's not how you start, it's how you finish.

With the taste of success in my mouth, I'm hungry for more. It may be the kiss of death, but I want to finish the season with a winning record now.

Let's do this thing.

Justin's 2020 ACC spread picks record: 17-17 (Last week: 3-0)

Here are my week 14 picks:

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Wake Forest (+1) at Louisville 12:00 p.m. 

Wake Forest has only lost one game since mid-September.

Granted, the Demon Deacons have had two games canceled and haven't played a game in nearly a month. That still doesn't discount the fact that Wake has gone 4-1 since losing to NC State by three points on Sept. 19.

Louisville, meanwhile, had high hopes entering this season following an eight-win campaign in head coach Scott Satterfield's first year. The Cardinals have been a disappointment, however.

With a 3-7 record, Lousiville's three wins have come against Western Kentucky, Florida State and Syracuse.

The lone non-conference victory was against a Hilltoppers team that finished 5-6 in Conference USA. Florida State and Syracuse have a combined three wins this season.

Translation: Lousiville hasn't beaten anybody.

Wake Forest is always a tough out. The Demon Deacons are well-coached, don't beat themselves with penalties and have an explosive, up-tempo offense that is difficult to prepare for.

Not to mention, Wake should be extremely well-rested considering it hasn't played a game since Nov. 14.

I don't understand why Lousiville is favored in this one. I'll take the Deacs with an extra point as a cushion.

Justin's pick: Wake Forest +1

No. 17 North Carolina (+3) at No. 10 Miami 3:30 p.m.

When North Carolina suffered its first loss of the season, a 31-28 head-scratcher against Florida State in Tallahassee, I got the feeling the Tar Heels would be a team that gets up for the big games but doesn't bring it in the smaller matchups.

Saturday's matchup against No. 10 Miami may be the most anticipated game of the weekend. The winner will likely earn itself a bid to the Orange Bowl assuming Clemson takes care of business in the ACC Championship game.

Miami has won five straight after being embarrassed by Clemson 42-17 in Death Valley.

The Hurricanes will give the Tar Heels their second-toughest matchup of the season and vice versa.

Ultimately, I see this being a high-scoring affair with two dynamic offenses and two of the top four quarterbacks in the ACC.

Assuming it's a shootout Saturday, I give the advantage to UNC. Miami's D'Eriq King is a fantastic college quarterback, but the Tar Heels have too many future-pro offensive weapons with quarterback Sam Howell, running backs Javonte Williams and Michael Carter, and wide receivers Dazz Newsome and Dyami Brown.

This one is a coin flip, so I'll take the points.

Justin's pick: North Carolina +3

Duke at Florida State (-5) 4:00 p.m.

This game has "Degenerate Special" written all over it.

Both of these teams are awful this year, and I can't imagine anyone watching this game that doesn't have a wager on it.

With that said, I see some upside with Florida State.

For one, the Seminoles will be well-rested and energized after not playing a game in the past three weeks. The last time FSU was on the field, it lost to NC State 38-22 on the road.

Secondly, Duke really seems like it's thrown in the towel for the season. In the past three contests, the Blue Devils have lost by an average margin of 34.3 points. Two of those losses came against good teams in North Carolina and Miami, but one of them also came against three-win Georgia Tech.

Duke has also yet to figure out its turnover problems. The Blue Devils committed five last week in the 48-0 loss to Miami, which puts their season total at 35 in 10 games. That's 10 more than any other team at the FBS level.

Seminoles quarterback Jordan Travis is also expected to play Saturday. He's been one of the few promising signs for FSU in Mike Norvell's first season in Tallahassee.

Justin's pick: Florida State -5

Matt's Moneyline Lock of the Week

Matt's 2020 ACC football Moneyline record: 7-5

Wake Forest -105 over Louisville on the road.

*All lines via Bovada as of Friday, Dec. 11 and line history from Oddshark.

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