Picking every game of the NIT bracket

Last season was the first since the inaugural tournament in 1938 that the NIT was not played. Like the 2020 NCAA Tournament and several concluding rounds of various conference tournaments last March, the NIT was canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

While the tournament returns this March, it will still break several traditional norms.

For the first time in NIT history, the championship game will not be played in New York City. The “final four” of the NIT is typically played in Madison Square Garden in midtown Manhattan, but the entirety of this tournament will be contested in select venues in the greater Dallas-Fort Worth metro area.

The 2021 NIT field was condensed to 16 teams as opposed to its traditional 32-team format in the modern era of the tournament. There will also be a third-place game this season, which will mark the first in the tournament's history since 2003.

Here are The Wolfpacker’s picks for the entire NIT bracket:

First round

Upper Left Bracket

No. 1 Colorado State (18-6) vs. No. 4 Buffalo (16-8)

Because the first team out of the NCAA Tournament, Louisville, decided to take its name out of consideration for an NIT bid, Colorado State is the No. 1 overall seed of the tournament. The Rams were the second team left out of the Big Dance, and that’s after losing their conference semifinals game by 12 points to Utah State, an at-large team in the NCAA field.

Buffalo enters the tournament as hot as anyone, winning 10 of its last 12 games, including a 20-point road win over MAC champion Ohio.

Colorado State is one of the best shooting teams in the NIT field, and the Bulls won’t be able to take advantage of the Rams’ turnover problems enough to overcome the CSU offense.

Pick: Colorado State

No. 2 Davidson (13-8) vs. No. 3 NC State (13-10)

Speaking of good shooting teams, Davidson may be the best in the NIT. The Wildcats rank 17th nationally in effective field goal percentage (.555) and eighth in two-point shooting (.568). NC State leads the all-time series 25-2 against its in-state foe, but Davidson has won two of the last four meetings, including a 72-67 victory on a neutral court in the most recent encounter in 2008.

But that Wildcats team had a 6-3, 185-pound guard named Stephen Curry, who went on to become a two-time NBA MVP and three-time NBA champion. Curry tied his collegiate career-high of 44 points in that game, but he won’t be walking out of the locker room this time at UNT Coliseum in Denton, Texas.

Pick: NC State

Lower Left Bracket

No. 1 Memphis (16-7) vs. No. 4 Dayton (14-9)

Memphis is the highest-ranked team in the NIT according to KenPom, and Dayton is the third-lowest. If that’s not enough for you, the Tigers rank No. 3 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency according to the analytics site. Memphis also enters the tournament after winning 10 of their last 13 contests. Of the three losses, two of them were one-possession defeats to Houston, who went on to win the American Athletic Conference and earned a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Pick: Memphis

No. 2 Boise State (18-8) vs. No. 3 SMU (11-5)

SMU has been plagued by COVID pauses this season and only played 16 contests through the regular season and conference tournament. Luckily for the Mustangs, they’re running into a Boise State team that played its way out of the NCAA Tournament by losing four-straight entering the NIT.

Pick: SMU

Upper Right Bracket

No. 1 Saint Louis (14-6) vs. No. 4 Mississippi State (15-14)

The Billikens looked like an NCAA Tournament team much of the year, but the margin of error is slim when you play in the Atlantic 10. COVID problems seemed to have prevented Saint Louis from playing enough games to help produce the quality needed on its resume for an at-large bid. Of SLU’s six losses, four were against teams in the NCAA Tournament or NIT with a fifth in December against Minnesota, a team that appeared to contend for an at-large before losing its final seven games of the regular season.

Mississippi State, on the other hand, hasn’t shown it can beat quality opponents. The Bulldogs went 2-8 against teams in the NCAA Tournament. Not to mention, Mississippi State ranks 313th nationally with a 21.9 percent turnover rate. Not a good combo against senior Saint Louis guards Javonte Perkins and Jordan Goodwin, who average a combined 31.5 points per contest.

Pick: Saint Louis

No. 2 Richmond (13-8) vs. No. 3 Toledo (21-8)

Richmond seemed like a promising NCAA Tournament contender this season before losing four of its last six, including the last three entering the NIT.

Toledo on the other hand has the 13th-best adjusted offensive efficiency in the country, averaging 1.14 points per possession according to KenPom. The Rockets shoot 37.7 percent from three and take 45.2 percent of their attempts from beyond the arc, good for 23rd and 26th nationally, respectively.

Pick: Toledo

Lower Right Bracket

No. 1 Ole Miss (16-11) vs. No. 4 Louisiana Tech (21-7)

Ole Miss was a darling at-large pick of several bracketologists but wasn’t able to do enough down the stretch to stay on the right side of the bubble. This game will be a low-scoring affair considering the defensive strengths of each team. The Rebels rank 21st nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency while the Bulldogs rank 34th.

Pick: Ole Miss

No. 2 Saint Mary’s (14-9) vs. No. 3 Western Kentucky (20-7)

Saint Mary’s has a top 10 defense nationally giving up just 89.4 points per possession. The Gaels were picked on in the West Coast, five of their nine losses to conference foes Gonzaga and BYU. An additional one of those losses came against a sixth-seeded NCAA Tournament team in San Diego State.

Pick: Saint Mary’s

Second round

No. 1 Colorado State vs. No. 3 NC State

The Wolfpack have a much better matchup against Colorado State than it does in the first round against Davidson. Other than freshman big James Moores (who is 6-10, 235 pounds) the Rams don’t have another rotational player over 6-5. If NC State continues to start the same five it has over the past six games, the Pack will only have one player on the floor shorter than 6-7 at times.

Colorado State also ranks 225th nationally with a 20 percent turnover rate. That’s not a good formula for the Rams considering the Wolfpack turns opponents over on 22 percent of its defensive possessions (good for 37th in Division I) and produces a steal on 12.1 percent of possessions, which ranks 13th nationally.

Pick: NC State

No. 1 Memphis vs. No. 3 SMU

A potential American Athletic Conference matchup in the second round. These two teams have already played each other twice. In fact, they played each other twice in a span of three days back in late January.

Memphis won the first, and SMU won the second. It’s tough to beat a team twice in three days, so I’m going with the Tigers, who took care of business the first time.

Pick: Memphis

No. 1 Saint Louis vs. No. 3 Toledo

Toledo will be a tough out as one of the best shooting teams in the field, so don’t be surprised if the Rockets make it all the way to the title game. Unfortunately for them, they’re set up for a second-round meeting with probably the best overall team in the NIT. Toledo could shoot itself to a victory, but it’s more likely the Billikens beat them up on the glass.

Saint Louis gets an offensive rebound off 36.4 percent of its misses, which ranks ninth nationally. Toledo plays small ball for the most part and gives up an offensive rebound percentage of 30.7 to its opponents, good for 274th in Division I.

Pick: Saint Louis

No. 1 Ole Miss vs. No. 2 Saint Mary’s

Interesting matchup here considering both of these teams play great defense but can’t shoot the three. Each rank inside the national top 25 in adjusted defensive efficiency while also ranking 315th or lower in three-point shooting average.

In a low-scoring slugfest, I’ll take the Rebels, who are more battle-tested coming from the SEC as opposed to the two-bid West Coast Conference.

Pick: Ole Miss

Semifinals

No. 3 NC State vs. No. 1 Memphis

These two teams should be somewhat familiar with each other considering they played last season. That meeting was played in the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, N.Y. on Thanksgiving Day 2019. The Tigers jumped out to a 16-point halftime lead after scoring 55 points in the first half, but the Wolfpack made interesting down the stretch, shrinking the lead to one possession in the final minute before ultimately coming up short in the comeback bid.

If NC State makes it this far, it’s a good sign that the Pack picked up where it left off at the end of the regular season during its five-game win streak. Memphis will be an enticing matchup, too, considering the Tigers rank 324th nationally with a turnover rate of 22.4 percent. When the Wolfpack is able to create turnovers and translate them into points, it's a tough team for anyone to beat.

Pick: NC State

No. 1 Saint Louis vs. No. 1 Ole Miss

Two experienced backcourts going head-to-head here. Saint Louis will have to take down Mississippi State in the first round if it wants to make it this far. The Billikens find a way to get it done against the Bulldogs and do the same against the Rebels a week later.

Pick: Saint Louis

Championship

No. 3 NC State vs. No. 1 Saint Louis

A rematch from NC State’s first loss of the regular season (80-69 Saint Louis on Dec. 17). Wouldn’t this be a fitting way for the Wolfpack to go out?

I’ve already called Saint Louis the best team in the field, but as college basketball fans know, the best doesn’t always win the whole thing.

NC State led the Billikens for over 28 minutes the first time and took a six-point lead into the locker room at halftime. The Wolfpack controlled that game but ultimately ran out of gas down the stretch due to various circumstances.

The Pack was coming off of its first COVID pause of the season (which lasted two weeks) and was also without two key rotational pieces: fifth-year senior forward DJ Funderburk and freshman guard Cam Hayes.

If the Wolfpack get this far, it will be from strong play from both Funderburk and Hayes. Both of those guys score in double figures en route to the first NIT title in program history.