With the 2021 college football season just over a month away, the sports books in Las Vegas are rolling out their future odds for the upcoming campaign.
Over the next month, many sports gamblers will contemplate placing future wagers on over-under win totals, passing yards, rushing yards and various other metrics.
Courtesy of SportsBettingDime.com, we examine the over-under totals of note for NC State entering the 2021 season.
Regular season win total
Over/under wins: 6.5
NC State enters the 2021 season with high hopes, and this number may appear low to Wolfpack fans. After all, the Pack was picked to finish second in the ACC Atlantic Division earlier this week in the league's preseason predicted order of finish poll.
But with a daunting schedule this fall, the analytics suggest that 6.5 is the right number for NC State based on the variability of how the season could go.
"My power ratings have NC State as one of the top four teams in the ACC this year with 19 returning starters," College football expert Phil Steele said of the Wolfpack in his 2021 college football preview magazine. "They are stronger than last year's squad which went 7-3 in the ACC (but -34 yards per game!). They also pull both North Carolina and Miami out of the Coastal Division this year and host Clemson. That has the South Point Casino listing their conference over-under win total at just 2.5!
"My power ratings have them going anywhere from 10-2 all the way down to 5-7. I would take the over on that conference win total and think the total wins will go towards the higher forecasts."
ESPN's FPI (Football Power Index) ranked NC State 41st in the country and projects the Pack to win 6.5 games and drop 5.5 contests.
The Wolfpack's over-under win total comes down to who you want to trust: computers or the eye test. Neither method is fool-proof. There is a reason the games are played in the first place.
NC State has won eight or more regular-season contests in three of the past four years under head coach Dave Doeren, who enters his ninth campaign in Raleigh this fall. Presuming an over-under win total of 6.5, the Wolfpack would have hit the over in five of the past seven seasons.
FPI gives the Pack at least an 85 percent chance to win four of its scheduled contests this fall (South Florida, Louisiana Tech, Furman and Syracuse). The metric also gives State a 40-60 percent chance to win four other games (Boston College, Louisville, Florida State and Wake Forest).
Quarterback Devin Leary's passing yards and touchdown totals
Over/under passing yards: 3,177.5
Over/under passing touchdowns: 24.4
If redshirt sophomore quarterback Devin Leary hits his projected season passing yards total this season, it would have been enough to have the second-most in the ACC last season. And only two quarterbacks from the conference threw for 24 or more touchdowns last fall: Sam Howell of UNC and Trevor Lawrence of Clemson.
Granted, only two signal callers from the league appeared in 12 games, but that does provide necessary perspective when deciding whether to take the over or under for Leary.
But again, it's important to remember that last season's schedules were an anomaly for most teams. College football will return to a normal 12-game regular season this fall, which means teams from the ACC will play in four non-conference contests as opposed to one.
Assuming Leary is able to play in all 12 regular-season games this year, he would need to average 264.8 passing yards and 2.0 touchdowns per game to meet his totals according to SportsBettingDime.com.
So how does that compare to his performance last season? Remember, Leary only appeared in four games and started in just three in 2020 due to a season-ending leg injury in October.
He came in off of the bench in the second half of the road loss to Virginia Tech and earned a start in wins against Pittsburgh, Virginia and Duke. He played the majority of three quarters against the Blue Devils before suffering his leg break late in the third quarter of that game.
That means Leary threw for 890 yards and eight touchdowns in 13 quarters of action last fall. Dividing his totals into four-quarter increments, the Wolfpack QB paced an average of 273.8 yards and 2.5 touchdowns per game.
If Leary can maintain that pace this season, he will easily hit the overs on his yardage and touchdown totals if he can stay on the field for every game.
This bet ultimately comes down to whether or not Leary can stay healthy all season. If he can, the overs should hit assuming he maintains his production levels from last season. But if he misses even just one game, it could put any over wagers in jeopardy.
Running back Zonovan Knight's rushing yards total
Over/under rushing yards: 922.5
Will sophomore running back Zonovan Knight hit his goal of becoming the 11th player in school history to rush for over 1,000 yards in a single season this fall? According to this total, he should be knocking on the door.
Like Leary's totals, or any other total on an individual player's performance, betting the over relies on Knight staying healthy this season. When looking at this total, it's also important to consider the Wolfpack running back's potential usage rate.
Knight has led NC State in rushing yards in each of the past two seasons, but he wasn't even the team's carries leader in 2020.
The redshirt sophomore is currently the program's all-time leader in yards per rush attempt, pacing an average of 5.49 yards per carry over two seasons. His YPC average has remained consistent too. In 2019, he averaged 5.48 yards per attempt. Last season, his average increased slightly to 5.51 yards per carry.
Assuming he's able to maintain his pace of 5.5 yards per carry, he would need at least 168 rush attempts to hit the over. If he appears in all 12 games this fall, he would need to average 14 or more carries per game.
On most teams, that would be a rather attainable number considering his skillset. However, because of the Pack's depth at running back with junior Ricky Person and sophomore Jordan Houston, Knight averaging 14 carries per game is far from a guarantee.
In 24 career appearances, Knight has been given 14 or more carries in a single game only seven times. In two years at the college level, he has yet to earn more than 18 rush attempts in a single contest.
There's no question that Knight possesses the talent to rush for 1,000 or more yards in the ACC, but the unknowns of injuries and his usage rate this fall make the over a risky bet.
Wide receiver Emeka Emezie's receiving yards total
Over/under receiving yards: 801.5
Senior receiver Emeka Emezie's receiving yards total would also be a career-high for the fifth-year pass catcher.
The 6-3, 220-pounder has been the Pack's leading receiver in each of the past two campaigns, and he's coming off of his best statistical season to date in 2021.
In 12 starts last season, Emezie reeled in 47 receptions for 738 yards and five touchdowns.
But even in a successful season, he was still 63.5 yards short of his 2021 total. So the question for Emezie is whether or not there is room for statistical improvement.
One area of his 2020 stat sheet that jumps off the page is how much more efficient he was than in seasons past. Although he marked a career-high in receiving yards and tied his personal best with five touchdowns, his 47 receptions was a lower total than he had in both 2018 and 2019.
Emezie averaged a career-best 15.7 yards per reception last fall, which is over three yards per catch better than his previous personal high during his freshman season (12.7 YPC).
If Emezie can match his reception totals from either 2018 (53) or 2019 (56) while maintaining his efficiency from last year, he would hit the over with 830+ yards this season.
Another factor to consider is the role Leary plays in his production.
In the three games Leary started last year, Emezie averaged 80.7 yards per contest while pacing 17.3 yards per catch. In the nine games Leary didn't start, Emezie's production dropped to 55.1 yards per game and 15.0 yards per catch.
If both Leary and Emezie can stay on the field through the entirety of the regular season, Emezie could smash the over, and his personal record, by week 10.
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