3/14/2021 basketball Edit

NIT Bracketology

Justin H. Williams • TheWolfpackCentral

Staff Writer

With all eyes on the NCAA Tournament bubble ahead of Selection Sunday on March 14, 2021, teams on the fringe that didn’t necessarily far well in their respective conference tournaments — including NC State, who lost to Syracuse 89-68 in the second round of the ACC Tournament Wednesday — will have another selection show to pay attention to this weekend.

After the NCAA Tournament field is decided this Sunday at 6 p.m. ET on CBS, the NIT selection show will air two hours later at 8:30 p.m. on ESPNU.

As NCAA Tournament talk trudges on this time of the year, so does the pandemic. In a season with routine cancellations and pauses due to COVID-19, those at the top of the NIT bracket will still have a chance to make the NCAA Tournament as replacements in the event one or more teams in the Big Dance have to withdraw due to virus complications within the program.

The NCAA has set a cut-off date of Tuesday, March 16 at 6 p.m. ET to make any such replacement. After that, if an NCAA Tournament team is unable to compete due to COVID-19, it will withdraw and its opponent will automatically advance to the next round.

The “first four” teams out of the NCAA Tournament will be No. 1 seeds in the NIT and will be asked to remain on campus until Tuesday to continue testing in the event they’re called upon as replacements. The replacement team would automatically take the seed and opponent of the original team that had to withdraw, the tournament bracket will not be reset in such a scenario.

Unlike most years, the NIT field was cut from 32 teams to 16 this season. There will also be no automatic bids, which is normally the case in the event a team from a one-bid conference wins its league’s regular-season but not the conference tournament.

All four rounds of the NIT will take place in the greater Dallas-Fort Worth area beginning Wednesday, March 17 and will conclude with the championship game on Sunday, March 28.

NC State Wolfpack basketball DJ Funderburk — NC State and Syracuse are two teams from the ACC that could end up in the NIT. (Ethan Hyman, The News and Observer)

Let’s start by taking a look at the NCAA Tournament bubble in the eyes of Washington Post bracketologist, Patrick Stevens:

Last Four In the NCAA Tournament as of Saturday morning

Drake

Ole Miss

Utah State

Saint Louis

First Four Out

Syracuse

Colorado State

Boise State

Xavier

Next Four Out

Seton Hall

Duke

Memphis

St. John’s

And that was the scenario before bid thieves Georgetown of the Big East and Oregon State of the Pac-12 won their conference tournaments.

Let's make a judgment call and say Syracuse makes it in as one of the last four teams in the NCAA Tournament.

Being the first team out of the tournament isn’t necessarily a bad spot in this unique season, but the Orange’s wins over North Carolina, Clemson and NC State down the stretch along with its three-point buzzer-beater loss to Virginia in the ACC Tournament quarterfinals Thursday is likely enough to get Buddy Boeheim and company in the field.

BracketMatrix, which presents a consensus of 127 various mock brackets, agrees. The site has the Orangemen in, and Saint Louis — who lost three of their last six games down the stretch — out.

Duke, a team that would earn a No. 2 seed in the NIT according to Stevens’ projections, ended its season Thursday morning after withdrawing from the ACC Tournament after one of its players tested positive for COVID-19. Although the Blue Devils would earn a bid to the NIT based on their resume, we won’t include them because they won’t be ready to compete as soon as next week due to subsequent contact tracing and quarantine.(*Although a report Saturday said Duke could play in the NCAA Tournament if selected, it's still very unlikely it would play in the NIT.)

NC State is another team with a good chance of earning an invite to the NIT. The question with the Wolfpack is whether or not they would accept a bid to play in Texas for up to two weeks.

"That would be something we would talk about,” NC State head coach Kevin Keatts said Wednesday after the Pack's 89-68 loss to Syracuse in the ACC Tournament. “Whatever we decide to do will be in the best interest of our team moving forward, safety protocols, what it looks like, is it an invite-only tournament. I just don't know how it works at this point.”

With all of that in mind, let’s take a look at what the NIT field is shaping up to be as of Sunday morning:

(*Note — Louisville, Xavier, Duke, St. John's and Seton Hall have all communicated they will not participate in the NIT if invited as of 7:53 p.m. ET)

(^ — Already announced as "first four teams" out and top replacement candidates for NCAA Tournament)

One seeds

Ole Miss (16-11, 10-8 SEC) ^

Saint Louis (14-6, 6-4 Atlantic 10) ^

Colorado State (16-6, 14-4 Mountain West) ^

Xavier (13-8, 6-7 Big East)*

^- Louisville announced as the first team out of the NCAA Tournament. Will not play in NIT i\f selected.

Two seeds

Seton Hall (14-12, 10-9 Big East)*

Memphis (15-7, 11-4 American)

St. John’s (16-11, 10-9 Big East)*

SMU (11-4, 7-4 American)

Three seeds

Penn State (11-14, 7-12 Big Ten)

NC State (13-10, 9-8 ACC)

St. Mary’s (14-9, 4-6 West Coast)

Richmond (13-8, 6-5 Atlantic 10)

Four seeds

Davidson (13-8, 7-4 Atlantic 10)

Belmont (26-4, 18-2 Ohio Valley)

Louisiana Tech (21-6, 12-4 C-USA)

Buffalo (15-7, 12-5 MAC)

First four teams out of the NIT

Dayton (14-9, 9-7 Atlantic 10)

Indiana (12-15, 7-12 Big Ten)

Marshall (15-7, 9-5 C-USA)

UAB (22-6, 13-5 C-USA)

NIT Schedule

First-round

Wednesday, March 17 - Saturday, March 20, 7 and 9 p.m. ET, ESPN or ESPN2

(Saturday games at noon and 5 p.m. ET on ESPN)

Quarterfinals

Thursday, March 25, 6-10 p.m. ET, ESPN or ESPN2

Semifinals

Saturday, March 27, noon and 3 p.m. ET, ESPN

Third-place game

Sunday, March 28, 3 p.m. ET, ESPN

Championship game

Sunday, March 28, noon ET, ESPN