The brackets for Sunday’s ACC Wrestling Championship have been released, and NC State wound up with a league-high four No. 1 seeds: fifth-year senior 141-pounder Tariq Wilson, fifth-year senior 157-pounder Hayden Hidlay, fifth-year senior 174-pounder Daniel Bullard and junior heavyweight Deonte Wilson.
What does it mean? We examine below:
ACC Championships' On-Paper Projected Team Scores
If the higher-seeded wrestler won every match in the entire bracket — a virtual impossibility — this is how the team scores, without bonus points (winning a match by eight or more points, or via a pin), would come out:
1. NC State – 75
2. Virginia Tech – 65.5
3. North Carolina – 57
4. Virginia – 54
5. Pitt – 45
6. Duke – 3.5
But here’s the annual reminder that seeds never hold and upsets are guaranteed to happen. The seeds gave NC State an even more comfortable projected margin last year — the Pack had seven top-two seeds and nobody else had more than four — but the inevitable tournament things happened and the team scores got tight.
NC State wound up edging Pittsburgh by only four team points for the league’s closest team race in 11 years. The Panthers tied North Carolina with an ACC-best three individual champions, but the Wolfpack was able to win the trophy thanks to all 10 of its wrestlers “scoring” (placing among the top four at their weight).
Four of the last five team races at the ACC Championships have been decided by 8.5 team points or fewer (for context purposes, a No. 1 seed placing second would result in at least a six-point team swing from the above — three points less for the team of that No. 1 seed, and three additional points for the No. 2 seed that won, or more if it was lower than a No. 2 seed that won).
So once again NC State comes into the ACC Championships as the “on paper” favorite.
The Wolfpack has the league’s best “top-end” depth with four No. 1 seeds (league high) and two No. 2 seeds (one off the league high). The regular-season champion, Virginia Tech, has five top-two seeds, but only two No. 1s, while Pitt has three No. 1s but no No. 2s.
It’s worth noting one of those Virginia Tech 2 seeds, for example, is former NCAA champion Mekhi Lewis. So the seeds don’t always tell the whole story, but another close team race seems more probable than not.
The Best NC State Pre-Finals Matches To Watch
NC State has six wrestlers with byes into the semis, so each of those grapplers will open the tournament one win away from the finals.
As good as the ACC is now, every finals match will be a must-watch (7 p.m. Sunday on ACC Network). However, there are going to be plenty of good ones prior to that with how the brackets shook out.
Wrestling begins with two mats going at 11 a.m. on ACC Network Extra, and these will be some of the top Wolfpack matchups to watch prior to the gold and bronze medal matches:
FIRST ROUND — 165: No. 5 Thomas Bullard vs. No. 4 Kennedy Monday (UNC)
Not only is it Wolfpack-Tar Heels in round one, not only was it a close decision (4-2) for Monday in the regular season, it was controversial. Bullard led 1-0 at the end of the second period, but a Carolina coaches' challenge near the end of the third found Bullard used an illegal mat return. Action wasn't stopped until there were less than 20 seconds left in regulation, but the illegal move tied the score at 1-1 and put nearly a minute back on the clock (wrestling restarted when the illegal move happened). Monday escaped then added a takedown with about 15 seconds left for the difference.
That wild one was the only previous college matchup between the two, but this will be a big-time showdown, especially for the first round. Bullard and Monday may be the 5 and 4 seeds, respectively, at this weight, but they are ranked 13th and 11th nationally by FloWrestling, showing the league’s incredible depth at 165.
If Bullard can get by Monday this time, he’ll take on No. 1 seed Jake Wentzel, the weight’s defending conference champion who took only one loss this year — to Bullard, who has actually beaten Wentzel in all three of their previous matches. However, Bullard's margin of victory has gone from three points at the Southern Scuffle on Jan. 1, 2020, and decreased by one each time, culminating in Bullard’s one-point win in the dual Jan. 22.
FIRST ROUND — 133: No. 5 Jarrett Trombley vs. No. 4 Louie Hayes (UVA)
Though Trombley and Hayes didn’t wrestle this year, they split their two matches last season. Trombley won in the regular season, 4-2, before falling in the first tie-breaker (essentially double overtime) at the ACC Championships, 5-3.
If Trombley can win the rubber match, he’ll get another chance at Pittsburgh’s top-seeded Micky Phillippi, whom he fell to 4-2 on Jan. 22. Trombley also wrestled Phillippi tough in 2020, falling by a final of 4-0 in the dual.
This one is huge because not only is it crucial, team score-wise, to have wrestlers "outperform" their seeds, but the ACC received four automatic bids to the NCAA Championships (full breakdown of those is below), meaning the top four are guaranteed to move on to the sport's biggest stage. The fifth-place finisher will be in contention for a wild card, but you never want to rely on that.
SEMIFINALS — 197: No. 4 Nick Reenan vs. No. 1 Nino Bonaccorsi (Pitt)
Maybe we’re burying the lede here, but, yes, Reenan is back in the Wolfpack’s expected starting lineup after splitting the spot with freshman Isaac Trumble during the regular season. Reenan won a recent wrestle-off, and the fifth-year senior enters the ACC Championships seeded fourth at a weight handing out only three automatic bids to the NCAA Championships.
If Reenan can get by fifth-seeded Stan Smeltzer of Virginia Tech in the first round (the two have never wrestled in college, though Trumble beat Smeltzer by a point in the dual), his reward will be facing the top-seeded Bonaccorsi in the semifinals.
Reenan and Bonaccorsi haven’t wrestled since the 2018-19 season, when they were both down at 184 pounds. The first matchup also didn’t happen until after Reenan tore his ACL, which he wrestled through during an 8-0 loss in the regular season and 10-3 defeat at the ACC Championships.
Reenan proved himself to be the second-best freestyle wrestler in the United States (collegiate or graduated) at his weight in the summer of 2018 before the injury. He’ll need to perform at that level again to get past Bonaccorsi, who is ranked among the top five nationally and has taken only one loss this year — a shocking 6-1 defeat in the dual against NC State's Trumble.
SEMIFINALS — 141: No. 1 Tariq Wilson vs. No. 4 Cole Matthews (Pitt) or No. 5 Sam Hillegas (Virginia Tech)
The No. 1 seed, Wilson gets a bye to the semifinals, but he'll have a rematch of a close one regardless of his opponent.
Matthews is the on-paper favorite to win in the first round and took Wilson to the first tie-breaker in the dual Jan. 22. These two have wrestled four times in their college careers, and in addition to taking Wilson to overtime this year, Matthews has been within three points each time — two were by a single point, including at last year’s ACC Championships.
If it's Hillegas, Wilson topped him 5-1 in his last regular-season outing before sitting out the final dual against Duke.
The ACC's NCAA Automatic Bids
Here are the number of automatic bids the ACC has earned at each weight for the NCAA Championships, held March 18-20 in St. Louis. If the number is three, for example, that means the top three finishers at the weight move on, provided they each have a minimum of four matches wrestled this year (all NC State wrestlers entered into the ACC Championships have already wrestled at least five matches):
125 — 3
133 — 4
141 — 3
149 — 3
157 — 4
165 — 3
174 — 3
184 — 3
197 — 3
285 — 4
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