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Wolfpack nation tracking the path of Hurricane Florence

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The 11 a.m. forecast track from the National Hurricane Center shows the potential path of Hurricane Florence.
The 11 a.m. forecast track from the National Hurricane Center shows the potential path of Hurricane Florence. (National Hurricane Center)
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NC State’s marquee home of the year is Saturday against No. 14 West Virginia, but could it be in jeopardy because of Hurricane Florence?

We asked Nate Johnson, Director of Weather Operations for NBC owned TV stations and NC State graduate, to help us better understand the situation regarding Hurricane Florence, which is forecasted to make landfall around the North Carolina/South Carolina border during the day Thursday into Friday.

As of midday Monday, what is the expectation for Florence’s landfall and track, and the timing of the event? How much confidence is there in this track given we’re three days out?

The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center has the center of Florence coming on shore near Wilmington Thursday with maximum sustained winds near 145 mph.

It’s critically important to keep two things in mind: First, we expect Florence be a large storm, so its effects will be felt long before the center makes landfall. Second, the forecast can and almost certainly will shift, and all of the impacts will shift with it. Over the last five years, the NHC’s three-day forecasts have had an average error of about 120 miles. So, any of the specifics we talk about could easily shift that much between now and then.

Bottom line: It’s important not to fixate on a specific track but use the range of possibilities that are on the table to prepare.

Specifically to the Triangle, what kind of conditions could be expected Friday and Saturday, and what are the odds that the storm could stall and/or hover around the area?

Conditions in the Triangle could go downhill as soon as Thursday, with clouds, wind, and rain increasing as the day wears on. The worst of the wind would likely be Thursday evening into Friday midday. If the storm stalls out over NC — which the pattern and modeling suggest is very possible — heavy, flooding rains could continue somewhere in North Carolina into next week.

The potential for widespread flooding, including places that have never flooded before, is very real.

What would be an early ballpark estimate on how much rain and wind could be expected in the Triangle?

There’s likely going to be a large swath of area that gets six inches of rain as an average, with some near the eventual track getting a foot or more. We’re also more likely than not at this point to see an extended period of tropical-storm-force winds of 39 mph or higher, with gusts of 75 mph.

The result will be flooding, downed trees and power lines, and power outages — some of which may last for a week or longer. Given the likelihood for the track to shift, it’s too soon to know for sure where those areas will set up. But we should assume and prepare for the worst.

For those who were planning to come from out of town, when should they make decisions on plans for the weekend?

As they’ve stated, NC State athletics is in regular communication with representatives of West Virginia athletics, the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC), meteorologists and regional emergency management services. The Mountaineers’ ability to safely travel to Raleigh on Friday as planned will be one of a number of considerations this week.

Assuming the game is played as scheduled, for folks planning to drive over the morning of the game, it’s fine to make that call then. I would certainly allow more time to get to Carter-Finley Stadium on Saturday, and if you have a parking space closer to some of the wooded areas, consider that there might be tree limbs (or worse) in your spot. Be flexible and patient with the stadium and parking staff.

For folks planning to fly in, that’s a harder call and depends on a lot of factors that are hard or impossible to predict, including how many flights the airlines cancel, whether the airport is closed due to damage or power outage, and so forth. Airlines tend to be more proactive about weather these days, and that includes issuing waivers that allow travelers to modify their reservations without a fee. I wouldn’t count on being able to get here and get a last-minute hotel reservation, though.

What are you more confident about: the track and impact of Florence or your own internal thoughts on who would win the game if played Saturday?

I’m confident that the impacts from Florence will be very bad somewhere — extended power outages, downed trees causing difficulties getting around (among other things), widespread flooding. But it’s too soon to nail down exactly where those effects will set up. I am less confident about that.

So, football. With two great quarterbacks, I expect a close, high-scoring shootout — last team with the ball wins. We’ve been doing well with coin tosses recently, so I’ll take State by four.

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