If the NCAA Tournament was starting this week, there’s a strong chance the Pack would be in Dayton for one of the “First Four” games as a byproduct of being one of the last four at-large teams selected.
According to BracketMatrix.com’s update Monday morning, NC State was listed on 85 of 115 mock brackets, the second fewest of the at-large teams to get in and with an average seed of about 11. Based on average seeding however, the final four teams to be in the field on the matrix were Arizona State, Temple, Clemson and Ohio State.
The two most visible bracketologists differ on State. ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has the Pack as one of his last four teams in, playing Ohio State in Dayton with the winner getting Marquette in Hartford, Conn. CBS Sports’ Jerry Palm is not as bullish on the Pack, not even including NC State in his first four out as of Monday morning.
So much will hinge on the ACC Tournament game Wednesday afternoon against Clemson. The Tigers were listed as one of the last four teams in by both Lunardi and Palm, and according to BracketMatrix.com they were on 70 of 87 brackets with an average seeding a tad lower than NC State’s (10.94 to 11.30).
Thus, Wednesday is the ultimate bubble game. If the Pack wins, it would secure a third quad-one (Q1) victory and improve to 9-8 in quad one/two games, including an undefeated 6-0 mark in Q2.
How would that stack up against other bubble teams? Here’s an analysis broken down by conference:
ACC
Clemson is No. 35 in the NET rankings used by the committee, whereas NC State is No. 32. The Tigers’ main issue: a 1-9 record in Q1 games, which includes losing at NC State at the buzzer. Otherwise, Clemson has the profile of a NCAA Tournament team. It’s 6-3 in Q2 and has no bad losses on its resume. It also has played a strength of schedule (SOS) that is No. 40, compared to NCSU’s No. 215.
Syracuse has the lowest NET of the ACC “bubble” teams at No. 44, yet it is safer than NC State and Clemson because it has three Q1 wins already, notably winning at Duke. It also has a winning road record (6-4) and the No. 9 SOS, including No. 23 in non-conference SOS. NC State’s non-conference SOS is last in the country at No. 353.
That said, Syracuse also has two Q3 losses and was beaten by both NC State and Clemson. The Orange will play the winner of Boston College and Pitt in its opening-round game at the ACC Tournament. A loss by them coupled with an NC State win over Clemson, and the Pack’s resume begins to compare favorably with the Orange.
Big East
Villanova and Marquette are locks to make the NCAA Tournament, and then after that there is a logjam behind them with three teams in particular battling to get into the field. Seton Hall likely moved into lock territory after home wins over Marquette and Villanova in the final week of the season.
Georgetown has an impressive five Q1 victories and an 11-10 record in the first two quadrants. But like State it played a poor non-conference SOS (251), and Georgetown is weighed down by a relatively poor NET ranking of No. 76.
Creighton has won five straight to get firmly in the bubble picture. It has no bad losses, nine wins in the first two quads, including three in Q1, and a good SOS (14). Its NET ranking is 54 and rising, and a win over Xavier in its opening game at the conference tournament could put them in a good position to make the field.
The final bubble team to watch is St. John’s, which has lost four of its last five games to fall to No. 66 in the NET. It has a strong Q1 record of 5-6, but also has two Q3 defeats and a poor non-conference SOS (214). It cannot afford a loss to last-place DePaul in its opening conference tournament game if it wants to feel safe on Selection Sunday.
Big Ten
In a game that rivals NC State-Clemson for bubble implications, Ohio State and Indiana will play in the opening round of the Big Ten Tournament after both finished 8-12 in league play. The Buckeyes have lost six of its last eight games to fall to 18-13 overall. Indiana endured losing 12 of 13 games earlier in the year, but has righted the ship lately by winning four straight to be 17-14 with an impressive six Q1 wins.
It’s probable the loser of that game will not be invited to the NCAA Tournament.
Iowa has lost four in a row and five of six to limp into the Big Ten tournament. Like NC State, it has a poor non-conference SOS (309). The Hawkeyes do have four Q1 wins and are undefeated (7-0) in Q2 while lacking bad losses, but it could pick up one of those at an inopportune time if it falls to the winner of Illinois/Northwestern in its first league tournament game.
Minnesota (NET 56) faces Penn State in its tournament opener. A win by Penn State would be doubly good for NCSU. The Nittany Lions tenuously serve as State’s second Q1 win by being ranked No. 49. If it falls below 50, Penn State drops to Q2 status. Also, Minnesota went just 3-7 in its final 10 games and has just a 2-9 road record. With just three Q1 wins, the Gophers would be in a dicey situation.with a loss to Penn State.
Big 12
The two teams most severely on the bubble in the Big 12 are Texas and TCU. The Longhorns have a basic problem: its win-loss record is just 16-15. But it has played a tough schedule (SOS 6) and it has a combined nine Q1/Q2 wins, including five in the first quadrant. Its NET ranking is also a good number (No. 39). However, it needs to beat Kansas in its conference tournament opener to have any realistic chance.
TCU stumbled badly down the stretch, losing six out of seven before beating Texas in the regular-season finale. It still finished just 7-11 in conference action and has three Q1 wins. It cannot afford a loss to Oklahoma State in the first round of the Big 12 tourney.
Pac-12
Most consider Washington safe, but it has not impressed down the stretch, going 2-2 with a Q3 loss thrown in during the last two weeks. It has a good NET of No. 38 and a strong road record (7-4), but it has just two Q1 wins. A first-round upset could put the Huskies in a precarious situation.
However, that may not be what bubble teams want. The only other bubble team in the league is Arizona State, which has three Q1 wins, but a couple of poor metrics in four Q3/Q4 losses and a low NET (67).
The preference for bubble teams may be to have Arizona State lose very early in the tournament and Washington to win the event to make the Pac-12 a one-bid league.
SEC
There are two bubble teams that face must-wins in their opener at the SEC Tournament. Florida and Alabama both have identical 17-14 records. UF plays Arkansas first and Alabama has Ole Miss.
Florida has the stronger case thanks to a better NET (33 to 57) and more Q1 wins (3 to 2), but Alabama adds seven Q2 victories compared to just three for Florida and boasts a stronger schedule.
Mid-Majors
Belmont and Lipscomb missed opportunities to clinch automatic bids. Both are in the top 50 of the NET, 45 and 48, respectively. Both have a pair of Q1 wins and played decent enough non-conference schedules (79 and 61 respectively). Belmont has a better profile with three Q2 wins compared to just one for Lipscomb.
Also losing in its conference tournament was Furman, who has a good NET at No. 41, but the rest of its resume does not seem strong enough. It has just one Q1 win and three in Q2 while playing a poor non-conference SOS (272).
The team that beat Furman in the Southern Conference, UNC Greensboro, may be making a late push for the bubble. It is 2-5 in Q1 and has a perfect record after that. Its NET is No. 58 however. The Spartans lost to Wofford Monday night in the title game. Wofford earned an automatic bid with its conference tournament triumph, and bubble teams were hoping it prevailed over UNCG.
In the West Coast Conference, Saint Mary’s would probably have to go through potential No. 1 overall seed Gonzaga for an automatic bid. Its at-large case features a high NET (37) and good SOS (28), but just one Q1 win and two Q2 victories.
Temple made a late run in the American Athletic Conference, winning six of its last seven games to climb to No. 50 in the NET. It matches NC State with eight current Q1/Q2 victories and has an impressive eight road wins.
——
• Talk about it inside The State of Basketball
• Subscribe to our podcast on iTunes
• Learn more about our print and digital publication, The Wolfpacker
• Follow us on Twitter: @TheWolfpacker
• Like us on Facebook
