As of March 14, according to bracketmatrix.com NC State was listed on 93 of 119 mock brackets for the NCAA Tournament with an average seeding of 10.82. The average was good enough to keep NC State out of the "last four in" group and have it in the "last four byes" collection. However, it should be noted only Arizona State (92), Florida (82) and Indiana (65) were listed on fewer brackets than NC State.
The website barttorvic.com has a nice tool that compares similar profiles and shows that teams with similar results as NC State, with one exception, have made the field in recent years with an average seeding of 9.3.
The last four byes according to bracketmatrix.com were TCU, St. John's, NC State and Arizona State. The last four in consisted of Florida, Temple, Indiana and Ohio State. The first four out were Texas, Creighton, Clemson and Belmont, with the next four being Georgetown, UNC Greensboro, Toledo and Alabama.
Of those teams, only Arizona State, Florida, Temple and Alabama are still playing.
We break down each of their team sheets, making the executive decision to drop Toledo and Georgetown, despite the latter's impressive 11-11 record in quad one/quad two (Q1/Q2) games, and added Xavier, Furman and Lipscomb.
The Computer Models
There are six models used by the NCAA on the team sheet, headlined by the newly established NET rankings. Also included are the results-oriented metrics computed by Kevin Pauga's KPI and ESPN's Strength of Record (SOR), and three predictive calculations done by ESPN's BPI, Ken Pomeroy and Jeff Sagarin.
Our chart's space limitations did not allow us to include Sagarin, but it should be noted that NC State has the highest Sagarin rating at 24. The next highest was Clemson at 28.
As you can see NC State does exceedingly well in these metrics. It has the highest SOR, BPI and Sagarin mark, and it has the second highest NET and fourth highest KenPom. Only in the KPI does it fall short, checking in 14 out of 17 teams listed.
In totality however, under this hypothetical that eight spots are going among these 17 teams, NC State is more than safe on the metrics.
The Record
The team sheets shows a team's overall record and then separates out Division I only record, which is what we use here in the chart below. It also has four quadrants, with quad ones and twos considered high quality, and quad threes and fours not (or better known as bad losses).
They also note road record on the team sheet and the average rankings in the NET of wins and losses.
The results are more mixed here for NC State, but the committee has hinted it will focus on quad one and quad two results, and there the Wolfpack is good. Only four teams had more wins than NC State’s nine. Of the teams with at least nine or more Q1/Q2 victories, NC State is one of just three with a .500 record or better, joining Arizona State and St. John’s. And NC State has better computer numbers than those two.
In terms of road records, NC State is below .500 and only has four wins, but that’s not out of the norm. The mid-majors of Furman, Belmont, Lipscomb and UNCG piled up good road records during conference action, but among the others Temple (8-5) and Arizona State (6-5) shine. The rest are below .500 and only two had more than four wins — Florida and Ohio State with five a piece. More importantly for NC State, is does not have a negative outlier here like Texas (2-8) or Indiana (3-9), for example.
In terms of bad losses, NC State has two, along with five other bubble teams. A sixth, Arizona State, has four. That number alone has probably kept the Sun Devils on the bubble. The rest of the field had none or just one. That said, when you factor in the average NET ranking of NC State’s losses, the Pack more than holds up. Only three teams — Florida (32), Clemson (30) and UNCG (17) — had a better average. UNCG also only played eight games against teams ranked in the top 100 of the NET. NC State played 15.
The Pack’s most worrisome number next to its two Q3 losses is a low average NET win of 184. Only the four mid-majors which feaster on softer conference schedules had a lower average. We also did not include marquee wins in our evaluation, and that is a significant factor in deliberations.
However, if the committee mostly focuses on Q1/Q2 performances, then the Pack’s case is good here, especially coupled with the computer rankings and the NET.
Schedule
The team sheets shows the strength of schedule based on the output provided by the previously used RPI formula. Not included on the team sheet but listed on the "Nitty Gritty" sheet is the average opponent NET ranking. Whether or not that is used by the Selection Committee is questionable since it is not on the team sheet, but we provided below just in case.
Avert your eyes NC State fans because the numbers are simply not pretty. The one good news is that by playing Clemson and Virginia on a neutral court in the ACC Tournament the Pack’s overall strength of schedule (SOS) took a nice jump to No. 171. It is still lower than all but three of the mid-majors, and even one mid-major, UNC Greensboro, had a better SOS at No. 104.
Of course this is primarily due to a non-conference SOS that ranked last in the country.
Some of the other bubble teams have bad non-conference SOS as well. Indiana (212), St. John’s (216), Temple (218) and Furman (268) are all very bad. How much does the NCAA differentiate between those and NC State’s, for instance, is unknown. Odds are that the committee could lump all the bad schedules together and conceding after a certain point the schedules are cupcake loaded.
For instance, St. John’s played Duke (No. 3), VCU (No. 31), Bowling Green (No. 114), Georgia Tech (No. 122), Princeton (No. 188), California (No. 229), Sacred Heart (No. 241), St. Francis (No. 255), Loyola Maryland (No. 281), Wagner (No. 300), Mount St. Mary’s (No. 319) and Maryland-Eastern Shore (No. 352).
NC State had Wisconsin (No. 16), Auburn (No. 17), Penn State (No. 47), Vanderbilt (No. 155), Mercer (No. 216), Loyola Maryland (No. 281), Western Carolina (No. 295), Saint Peter’s (No. 317), Mount St. Mary’s (No. 319), Maine (No. 335), USC Upstate (No. 344), UNC Asheville (No. 350) and Maryland-Eastern Shore (No. 352).
On the surface, St. John’s non-conference SOS is demonstrably better by a margin of 137 spots in the ratings. But a deeper examination shows somewhat similar schedules with the exception of St. John’s collected more teams in the 200s whereas NC State piled up squads in the 300s. How deep the committee looks at it and weighs all that is unknown.
But the bottom line remains the same — strength of schedule is a thorn in NC State’s side.
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