Published Apr 27, 2021
NC State baseball bracketology breakdown
Matt Carter  •  TheWolfpackCentral
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Using projected fields of 64 for the NCAA baseball tournament by Baseball America and D1Baseball.com, The Wolfpacker's examination of 16 teams considered on the bubble by either one or both publications reveals how this NC State's sweep of Virginia Tech this past weekend significantly helped its bid chances.

Based on metrics provided by WarrenNolan.com, here are the RPI numbers for each of those teams, listed in alphabetical order, plus their respective quad records and strength of schedules.

Four of the teams you see below, theoretically, would round out the field of 64.

Table Name
Team (RPI)Q1Q2Q3Q4SOS

Alabama (25)

5-8

8-3

4-2

7-2

5

Baylor (31)

3-6

8-4

5-3

10-0

56

Clemson (66)

5-15

11-2

1-0

1-1

25

Creighton (57)

0-0

5-4

0-0

9-4

164

Dallas Baptist (85)

6-6

1-0

6-3

9-1

103

Florida Gulf Coast (63)

2-4

4-4

11-4

5-2

96

Indiana (125)

0-0

0-4

1-1

17-3

265

Kentucky (55)

5-9

4-2

6-2

9-0

67

Louisiana (61)

3-7

5-5

4-2

10-3

60

NC State (44)

8-7

5-5

2-1

4-0

31

Ohio State (52)

3-3

2-6

5-2

5-2

30

San Diego (48)

0-0

4-4

6-1

14-3

201

Tulane (64)

1-5

4-3

4-3

12-2

70

VCU (43)

3-5

1-0

2-6

16-3

91

Virginia (60)

6-14

7-5

2-0

4-0

15

Wichita State (74)

1-4

1-6

3-3

15-2

95

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Breaking down the bubble teams

Alabama: D1Baseball.com had the Tide as one of the last four teams in while Baseball America had them more securely in the field but also as a three seed in the region headlined by Texas Tech. Over the weekend though, Alabama lost two of three at Kentucky, a fellow bubble team.

That dropped Alabama to 8-10 in the SEC. Notably, the Tide is 2-7 against league squads that are surely in the field, and 3-9 when you add Kentucky to the mix. Alabama still has three-game series with Vanderbilt and Mississippi State, both in line to host a Super Regional (top eight seeds overall) to boost its credentials.

Alabama has a strong RPI (25) and strength of schedule (5). Both are best among the teams listed here, and it has a good 13-11 record in Q1/Q2 games combined.

Baylor: Going into the weekend, both D1Baseball.com and Baseball America had Baylor among the last four teams in the NCAA field, and the Bears only did themselves good by winning two of three on the road against potential regional host Texas Tech, further enhancing its profile.

That was needed, as Baylor was 1-5 in previous high profile series against Texas and TCU. It also still has a three-game series at likely NCAA field entrant Oklahoma State left on its slate.

Baylor’s RPI at No. 31 is second highest among the teams listed on the bubble.

Clemson: The Tigers were rated as one of the first five teams left off the field by D1Baseball.com, but Baseball America did not consider them that highly. Clemson also did themselves well by sweeping Wake Forest at home over the weekend to improve to 12-12 in the ACC and 18-18 overall. That record includes taking two of three against NC State in Raleigh in early-April.

However, the Tigers' overall Q1 record is just 5-15. It has played a good non-conference schedule, but it also has gone 0-4 in those games against likely NCAA field teams.

Clemson’s schedule is loaded with opportunities down the stretch, with three-game series against Louisville (home), Georgia Tech (road) and Florida State (road) still left, plus home non-conference affairs with USC Upstate and South Carolina. All of those squads are expected to earn postseason berths.

Creighton: The Bluejays went 3-1 at Georgetown over the weekend. Prior to that, D1Baseball.com had Creighton ahead of NC State in the first five teams out, but Baseball America did not include them. Creighton’s problem is the Big East is not a strong baseball league. Connecticut is the favorite, but the series with the Huskies earlier in the season was canceled.

Dallas Baptist: Both D1Baseball.com and Baseball America had Dallas Baptist in the mix but slightly below NC State among the teams left out of their prospective fields last week. They potentially helped themselves significantly though over the weekend by taking three of four from Missouri Valley conference favorite Indiana State, whom Baseball America has a two seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Earlier in the season, it took a pair of games from Missouri of the SEC and defeated previously-ranked Oklahoma on a neutral site. It additionally split a pair of home games against Gonzaga, a potential two seed in the field.

Its 6-6 quad one record is very noteworthy, but it does not have a ton of opportunities left. A four-game home series in May against Bradley (RPI 84) represents its best chance to improve its stock.

Florida Gulf Coast: Baseball America has FGCU in the field while D1Baseball.com did not even put them in the first five out. Against the more notable competition, they have struggled somewhat, losing at home to Indiana State and Miami plus dropping one at the Hurricanes. It plays Miami one more time on the road Tuesday night.

A lack of a chance to play Liberty, a likely at-large team if it does not win the Atlantic Sun, hurts FGCU, but it does conclude its regular season with two games at Florida State (May 11-12).

Indiana: The Hoosiers are in the field according to D1Baseball.com as a three-seed, but Baseball America had them as the third team left out. It secured a comfortable sweep of Minnesota over the weekend, but Indiana has yet to even play a quad one game yet and is winless in four quad two contests.

That is about to change. Indiana, starting this weekend, has 10 games left against the three Big Ten teams considered safely in the field: three at home vs. Indiana, two on a neutral site against Nebraska, three at Michigan and then two more at home with the Cornhuskers again. It will also host a pair of games with Ohio State, a potential bubble team itself.

It’s also worth noting there was no non-conference baseball action in the Big Ten this spring.

Kentucky: In non-conference action, the Wildcats dropped two of three at home against a Ball State team some consider the favorite to win their conference, and it split with safely-in Louisville. UK did themselves some much needed good this weekend by winning two of three at home against potential bubble team Alabama. Prior to that, Kentucky had been 1-5 against teams from the SEC likely in the NCAA field.

Kentucky, who was considered the first team out by both D1Baseball.com and Baseball America, has a behemoth schedule left: weekend series at Tennessee, vs. Florida, vs. South Carolina and at Vanderbilt. All of those teams are fighting to host regionals, with Georgia being the longest shot of that group.

Louisiana: Both publications had the Ragin Cajuns as one of the last four teams in the field. The strength of its resume is winning two of three at Tulane, a potential at-large team, and winning three of four at home against well-regarded Coastal Carolina, although they are not a bubble team at the moment.

However, it was also swept at Southern Miss, a potential No. 2 seed, and at South Alabama, the likely top team in the Sun Belt. It lost two of three at home to potential regional host TCU, too. Louisiana also lacks opportunities to build its resume the rest of the regular season.

NC State: The Wolfpack was considered one of the first teams out by both D1Baseball.com and Baseball America, but that was prior to sweeping Virginia Tech, who was at that point vying to host. That improved the Pack to 8-10 against teams projected in the field from the conference, and was the second sweep of such a team (also at UNC). However, it also lost 2 of 3 at home to fellow potential bubble team Clemson.

The Pack has series at Pittsburgh and home against Florida State, both likely NCAA teams, to potentially further boost its case.

Its 8-7 Q1 record stands out among the teams on the bubble, boasting both the most wins and only above .500 record in that quad. It also is one of four teams without a Q4 loss and a strength of schedule that ranks fifth among the 16 teams listed.

Ohio State: Early in the season, the Buckeyes split a pair of two game series with both Iowa and Nebraska in Minneapolis, and then it returned to go 1-1 at home against the Hawkeyes. It also swept a four-game set with Indiana before losing 2 of 3 at Michigan.

It’ll end the season with a big four-game series in Bloomington, Ind., two vs. Nebraska and a pair against host Indiana. That will go a long way in determining its status as a bubble squad. While Baseball America has the Buckeyes under consideration as one of the first eight teams out, there were not listed by D1Baseball.com.

Ohio State though has a strong SOS (30) and other metrics.

San Diego: Both D1Baseball.com and Baseball America had San Diego among its last four teams in the field despite a lack of notable games. What they have going for them is an impressive 25-8 overall record. It will play at Gonzaga this weekend in a crucial three-game series, as Gonzaga is considered a potential two seed in a region.

Tulane: D1Baseball.com had the Wave as one of the last five teams in, while Baseball America was more certain of their status in the field. They went 1-2 at home against Louisiana, another bubble team and at Mississippi State, a potential super regional host, earlier in the year. It also lost to Southeastern Louisiana, who is a favorite to land an automatic qualification, but it has won 10 games in a row, including a three-game sweep at home over Wichita State, whom some consider a bubble contender.

A four-game set at East Carolina, vying to host a Super Regional, looms May 7-9.

VCU: Losing three games at Liberty before beating the Flames once at home represented the Rams' best opportunity to enhance its resume within the Atlantic Sun, but it has helped itself out of conference. It split at Virginia Tech and won at Old Dominion before losing at home to the Monarchs.

VCU has also beaten Virginia at home and will play the Cavaliers on the road on May 4.

Baseball America has VCU as one of the last teams in consideration for the field but on the outside looking in the tournament.

Virginia: While D1Baseball.com did not rate Virginia’s chances highly, Baseball America had them as the second team out of the tournament prior to its winning two of three at home against Duke.

The Cavaliers have played a very difficult schedule (SOS is 15, best among teams listed here), but it has gone 11-17 against programs that are either safely in the field or on the bubble. Its 6-14 Q1 record is one of the worst among teams under consideration.

Wichita State: The Shockers face East Carolina at home in a crucial four-game series for its chances this weekend. Baseball America had them as one of the first four teams out, but that was prior to it losing 3 of 4 at Cincinnati over the weekend in a severe blow to its bid.

Wichita State is just 2-10 in Q1/Q2 games.

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