3/4/2020 basketball Edit

Making the case: A look at the NCAA Tournament bubble teams

Matt Carter • TheWolfpackCentral

Editor

Using bracketmatrix.com as a guide, here's a look at the last six teams in and the first six teams out of the field.

In theory, six of these teams will make the NCAA Tournament. That number may shrink, however, if automatic bids are awarded to conference tournament champions who otherwise would not have made the field.

Cincinnati – The Bearcats' best wins are a sweep of a slightly safer bubble team in Wichita State and home wins over Houston (safely in the NCAA field), Memphis (worse-off bubble team) and Tennessee (a credible, likely NIT-bound opponent). Its non-conference strength of schedule (SOS) of No. 28, plus overall SOS of No. 14, are standouts. The Bearcats have also held their own on the road, going 5-6.

However, it has only a 2-6 record in quad one games. They offset that somewhat with a 7-0 quad two record, but that includes softer Q2 road wins like victories at Temple (NET 112), South Florida (128) and Central Florida (131). Only one of its Q2 wins is considered “tier 1” in that quad. Furthermore, Cincinnati has an eyesore four quad three defeats, the most of all the bubble teams. That includes road losses at Tulane (NET 172) and East Carolina (NET 206)

Mississippi State – The Bulldogs hurt themselves by losing at South Carolina on Tuesday, dropping Mississippi State to 2-7 in quad one games. It is 5-2 in quad two, but also has a pair of quad three defeats: home against NET 96 Louisiana Tech and on a neutral floor to NET 113 New Mexico State.

A 4-7 road mark is not great, but it does have impressive wins at Florida, a likely NCAA Tournament team (for now) and at Arkansas, who is currently lower down on the bubble. That win over Florida is its best (and only) victory over a probable NCAA Tournament team, but the Gators are a couple of losses to end the season away from being potentially on the bubble itself.

NC State – Home wins over Duke (definitely a top-4 seed in the NCAA Tournament) and Wisconsin (trending that direction) plus a road win over sure-tournament team Virginia stand out. Four quad one victories and a 9-9 combined quads one and two record is solid. The Pack is also 5-7 on the road.

The SOS numbers are a non-factor, unlike last year (No. 53 overall and No. 81 non-conference), but three quad three defeats are more bad losses than almost all of the others, with a road loss at Boston College (NET 151) sticking out particularly like a sore thumb. Also, like Cincinnati only one of its Q2 wins is considered “tier 1” (at UNC Greensboro).

NC State Wolfpack basketball guard Markell Johnson shoots against Duke. — NC State senior guard Markell Johnson and the Pack is hoping its home win over Duke will carry weight. (Ken Martin/TheWolfpacker.com)

Purdue – It’s not often that a team with a 16-14 record would be on the bubble, especially one whose non-conference SOS is just No. 96.

That said, Purdue has a string of nice wins: lopsided home victories over Michigan State (NET 7, won by 29), Wisconsin (NET 27, by 19), Iowa (NET 35, by 36) and Virginia (NET 48, by 29). All those teams are in the NCAA field, and Purdue has also won at Iowa (NET 35) and swept Indiana, who is on the bubble but considered likely to make the field, at the moment.

Purdue’s biggest problem is simply that it has a massive amount of losses, including a loss at NET 194 Nebraska, and it does not have a high enough SOS to offset that (overall is No. 45). Its road record of 4-8 is not great, either.

Rhode Island – They have just one Q1 victory, and it’s a road win at VCU, a team that recently saw its bubble burst and will likely be in the NIT.

Rhode Island's best victories are actually home against a better-off bubble team in Providence and a former bubble team Alabama (also at home). Both of those were quad two victories. Rhode Island gets kudos for a nice non-conference slate (No. 47) and just one bad loss (albeit an inexcusable one at NET 248 Brown). It is 6-7 overall in Q1/Q2, and it has a nice road mark at 7-5.

Richmond – The Spiders sport a good overall win-loss record of 23-7, but it’s just 2-4 in Q1 and 4-6 overall in Q1/2 combined with SOS numbers of No. 94 overall and No. 102 in non-conference.

However, it owns an impressive win on a neutral floor over Wisconsin and also won at fellow bubble team Rhode Island. Its only bad loss was on a neutral floor against Radford, but it also played a higher amount of Q3/Q4 games (20) than most teams. Richmond’s 8-3 road mark is a plus.

Rutgers – The Scarlet Knights did themselves a lot of good by dominating NET No. 17 Maryland at home Tuesday, improving Rutgers’ quad one record to 4-9 on the year. It is also 4-1 in quad two. It has been particularly strong at home, with wins over certain NCAA Tournament teams Seton Hall, Wisconsin, Penn State and Illinois in addition to the Terps, plus over Indiana, currently a safer bubble squad, and Purdue, who was discussed above.

It also has a sneaky nice win over Stephen F. Austin at home, the same team that won at Duke and is favored to win the Southland Conference. However, Rutgers is only 1-8 away on the road, and it has a quad three loss on a neutral court to NET 115 St. Bonaventure. The overall SOS and non-conference SOS are good (38 and 79 respectively).

Stanford – The darling of the NET has a ranking of No. 25 and is 5-5 in quad one games with a .500 road mark (4-4). So why would it be on the bubble?

It has played a poor schedule, for one. Its non-conference SOS is a bleak No. 219, and its overall SOS is No. 97. It is also just 2-3 in quad two games and has a bad loss at California (NET 136).

That said, it has home wins over sure-fire NCAA Tournament teams Oregon and Colorado, a neutral win over likely NCAA Tournament squad Oklahoma and a win at fellow bubble member UCLA. It also only has the one quad three loss (at Cal).

Texas – The Longhorns are surging after adding another late-season quad one victory by winning at the buzzer on a banked-in three-pointer at Oklahoma, its third Q1 win in the past two weeks over teams likely to be in the NCAA Tournament.

Texas is now 5-7 in Q1 games, 6-5 on the road and has no bad losses. Its overall quad one/two combined mark of 7-11 and a non-conference strength of schedule that is No. 113 are the two weak spots in a resume that overall has improved dramatically in the past three contests.

UCLA – Their NET is only No. 75, but the Bruins have one of the best quad one and two records of teams on the bubble. It is 6-6 at Q1, including sweeps of Colorado and Arizona, two teams certain to be in the NCAA Tournament.

It does own a couple of bad home losses: NET 269 Cal State Fullerton and NET 122 Hofstra, and like Stanford a poor non-conference strength of schedule that is ranked No. 205. But it also is above .500 on the road (5-4).

Utah State – They enter the Mountain West Conference Tournament with a 2-4 Q1 record and 4-6 overall Q1/Q2 mark with a SOS that ranks No. 120 overall and No. 88 in non-conference.

That may not seem overly impressive, but they have neutral court SEC wins over LSU and Florida, a pair of likely NCAA Tournament teams. On the flip side, it also has two Q3 losses, including one at Air Force (NET 224), and a sub-.500 road mark of 4-6.

Wichita State – The Shockers’ lone win over a probable NCAA Tournament team is a home triumph over Oklahoma, who only just recently made itself a reasonably safe bet to make the field.

Overall, Wichita State is 2-4 in Q1, but it is strong 7-3 in quad two (including three tier I victories). It also has no quad three or four losses. Its worst defeat is a road setback at NET 112 Temple. It also has a good road record (5-4).

Wichita State’s non-conference strength of schedule of No. 139 is one of the weaker of the bubble teams, but its overall SOS is better at No. 81.