3/23/2021 basketball Edit

Game Prediction: NC State vs. South Florida in the NCAA Women's Tournament

Justin H. Williams • TheWolfpackCentral

Staff Writer

NC State faces South Florida in the second round of the 2021 NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament Tuesday at 3:00 p.m. on ESPN2.

The Wolfpack, the No. 1 seed of the Mercado Region, defeated 16th-seeded North Carolina A&T 79-58 in the first round Sunday. The Bulls, the No. 8 seed, defeated ninth-seeded Washington State 57-53 in the first round.

A win Tuesday would earn NC State its third-consecutive Sweet Sixteen appearance, a streak that would tie the program record.

Here is The Wolfpacker's game prediction for the second-round matchup Tuesday:

NC State Wolfpack basketball Kai Crutchfield — Senior guard Kai Crutchfield scored 14 points and went 4-of-5 on three-point attempts in NC State's 79-58 win over North Carolina A&T in the first round of the 2021 NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament. (Ethan Hyman, The News and Observer)

Justin H. Williams

Make no mistake, this is not an automatic win for NC State.

Yes, the Wolfpack is the No. 1 seed, and South Florida is a No. 8, but the Bulls have a legitimate gripe with their draw in the tournament.

The Bulls won the American Athletic Conference regular season, won the conference tournament to earn the league’s automatic bid and finished No. 19 in the Associated Press poll.

The Pack is a legit No. 1 seed, finishing the season ranked No. 3 in the AP poll after winning its second-straight ACC Tournament, but it’s rare to see a top-20 matchup in a second-round 1-8 contest.

USF wants to make this an ugly, physical contest. The Bulls can’t shoot, ranking 200th and 281st nationally in three-point shooting and field goal percentage, respectively.

South Florida makes up for it on the defensive end and on the glass. USF ranks 12th in Division I in scoring defense (54.3 points per game) and 14th in the country in offensive rebounding (15.8 per game).

The Wolfpack will present a strength-on-strength matchup on the glass. The Pack ranks fifth nationally in defensive rebounding (31.1 per contest).

If NC State makes its shots, it should pull away for a third-straight Sweet Sixteen appearance, which would tie the program record. The Pack finished the season 14th in the country in field goal shooting percentage (.496), so if the shots are dropping for the Wolfpack, USF will have its work cut out to keep pace.

The wild card in this matchup is the status of NC State senior forward Kayla Jones, who ranks third on the team in scoring average (11.9 points per game) and second in rebounding (7.1 rebounds per contest).

The 6-1 stretch four was an every-game starter for the Pack this season but suffered an apparent ankle or knee injury in the second quarter of the Wolfpack’s 79-58 win over North Carolina A&T in the first round. Jones hobbled off the court on her own power straight to the locker room and never returned. Her availability for Tuesday and the rest of the tournament is still in question.

The Wolfpack will miss her if she indeed has to miss time, but it finds a way to sneak away with a win in the fourth quarter of a competitive contest with or without her.

Prediction: NC State 63, South Florida 53