NC State Wolfpack football ESPN FPI projections

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Published Apr 20, 2020

ESPN's FPI projections show NC State battling for a bowl

Matt Carter • TheWolfpackCentral

Editor

@TheWolfpacker

In the dream world where college football goes off as scheduled and uninterrupted, ESPN’s FPI projections see a year in which NC State will play a slew of toss-up contests that will determine the Pack’s bowl eligibility.

Here are the overall FPI numbers for NC State:

FPI rank: No. 77

Projected W-L: 5.3-6.7

Strength of schedule: No. 66

A game-by-game breakdown shows that NC State is decided underdogs in four contests, heavily favored to win two, and six contests that are almost 50-50, which NC State favored slightly in three.

Sept. 3 at Louisville (10.9 percent odds of winning): NC State is slated to start the season at Louisville on the Thursday before the rescheduled Kentucky Derby. The Cardinals are ranked No. 20 in the FPI and could be a 10-win team in 2020 if their projections are correct.

Sept. 12 vs. Mississippi State (57.8 percent): The first of six toss-up type games, based on paper in the preseason, is also the most likely win of the bunch, according to FPI. The Bulldogs welcome a new head coach in Mike Leach and is ranked No. 72, slightly higher than NC State.

Sept. 19 at Troy (53.9 percent): Playing on the road is a likely factor here as Troy is not necessarily rated high, just No. 95 in the FPI.

Sept. 26 vs. Delaware (95.2 percent): The annual game against an FCS opponent is NC State’s best bet for a win this year in these projections.

Oct. 3 vs. Florida State (21.6 percent): The Seminoles are preseason No. 26 in the FPI despite welcoming a new coach in Mike Norvell, who takes over after the very brief tenure of Willie Taggart. Despite being at home, NC State is a decided underdog.

Oct. 10 vs. Duke (49.2 percent): The first showdown between the two teams since Dave Doeren’s first year as a head coach in 2013 is the biggest toss-up on the schedule, according to FPI. Duke is ranked No. 60.

Oct. 16 at Clemson (1.1 percent): The Pack is given little chance against Clemson, a mainstay in the national title picture in the College Football Playoffs era and the top-ranked team in the FPI.

Oct. 31 vs. Wake Forest (51.8 percent): The Demon Deacons have been a nemesis for NC State football over the past three years, but FPI, even if just slightly, likes the Wolfpack’s odds at home coming off a bye week. WFU is No. 65 in the FPI.

Nov. 7 vs. Boston College (47.3 percent): The first time NC State will face a Jeff Hafley coached Eagles squad and NC State is a slight underdog. FPI has the Eagles at No. 54.

Nov. 14 at Syracuse (48.9 percent): A year ago, Syracuse was the only ACC team that NC State beat. The Orange though gets a slight homefield edge even though it is ranked No. 88 in the FPI.

Nov. 21 vs. Liberty (79.1 percent): Although not quite the lock of the game against Delaware earlier in the season, NC State is heavily favored against the No. 111 team in FPI.

Nov. 27 at UNC (16.2 percent): The annual rivalry showdown will be on a Friday this year, and UNC enters an early heavy favorite according to FPI, which has the Heels ranked No. 29.