Sunday was the one-month mark before Selection Sunday, when the NCAA Tournament field is formally revealed.
It also was one day after the Pack fought hard and played better than the 94-78 score suggested in a loss at soon-to-be No. 1 Duke. NC State had a chance to cut the lead to six points with 8:42 left, but redshirt sophomore wing Devon Daniels missed a pair of free throws.
That left the Pack sitting at 6-7 in the ACC with five games left in the conference slate, but the “bracketologists” of the world seem to think that NC State’s profile, despite a 1-7 record in quad one games and a weak non-conference schedule, is positioned to earn an at-large bid into the NCAA Tournament. It may also be sitting precariously on the bubble, though.
NC State’s biggest strength is a strong 6-0 record in quad two games, plus its seven quad one losses came against teams that were, as of Monday, among the top 17 of the NCAA’s NET rankings (which has replaced RPI as a selection tool). Four of those defeats were on the road. NC State was also competitive in some of those defeats, losing in overtime by one to Virginia and going to the final minute on the road at Wisconsin and Louisville.
NCSU also has a favorable setup, which ESPN’s John Gasaway noted in his “Bubble Watch” column, which was updated Monday morning:
“Losing 94-78 at Duke drops NC State to 6-7 in ACC play, but the Wolfpack may not turn out to be the best example of those over-privileged but under-.500 major-conference bid hoarders you tend to hear about. Kevin Keatts’ team drew one severely front-loaded conference schedule, and now that his guys have played Clemson, Virginia, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Syracuse and the Blue Devils just in the past three weeks, they're about to get a well-deserved respite of sorts. The game at Florida State the first Saturday in March will be no picnic, certainly, but other than that, NC State has two games against Boston College and one each against Wake Forest and Georgia Tech left to play. The prospective No. 9 or 10 seed still looks solid, even at 6-7.”
ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has not updated his bracket since Valentine’s Day, which was after the Pack’s home win over Syracuse and before its loss in Durham. At that point, he had NC State as a No. 9 seed in the West Region, playing No. 8 Ole Miss in Salt Lake City, with the winner presumably getting top-seeded Gonzaga in the second round.
CBS Sports’ Jerry Palm is not as high on NC State as ESPN, but he also has the Pack safely in — for the moment. He had projected NC State as a No. 12 seed in the South Region, playing No. 5 seed Kansas State in San Jose to start the tournament. His bracket, which was updated Monday morning, has NC State avoiding the play-in game in Dayton, Ohio.
“NC State had a chance for a quality win on the road at Duke, but fell 94-78,” Palm wrote Sunday in his column. “The Wolfpack hung around for a while, but Duke put them away at the end. NC State has only one tournament contender left on its regular season schedule and they will really [need] a victory.”
That last contender Palm was referring to is Florida State, which is riding a seven-game winning streak and will host NC State March 2 in Tallahassee, Fla.
The Pack’s other four games will be a borderline quad two game at Boston College, a pair of quad three games at home against BC and Georgia Tech, and a quad four contest in Raleigh versus Wake Forest.
USA Today’s Scott Gleeson’s bracketology column Monday has NC State as one of the last four teams in the field and, although he does not specify, the listing of the last four teams suggest that he may believe the Pack will be the final squad selected. Gleeson’s bracket has NC State playing Central Florida in Dayton, Ohio, for the right to play fifth-seeded Texas Tech in Salt Lake City in the Midwest Region.
Overall, according to BracketMatrix.com, NC State is listed on 88 of 95 mock brackets with an average seeding of No. 10.
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