Depending on your view of the bowls, it’s possible that the ACC title game between Notre Dame and Clemson could have some implications on NC State’s destination. However, a probably little-watched or followed game among Wolfpack fans over the past weekend — Virginia topping Boston College — likely clinched NC State's place in the pecking order of the league's bowls.
The ACC is certain to land two teams in either the College Football Playoff (CFP) or a New Year’s Bowl. It would go up to three if both Clemson and Notre Dame make the CFP, which would require the Tigers winning on Dec. 19 in Charlotte in a rematch between the two. Under that scenario, the winner of Saturday’s game between UNC at Miami is likely headed to the Capital One Orange Bowl in Miami on Jan. 2.
After that, the slate of available bowls include the Duke’s Mayo Bowl in Charlotte, N.C., on Dec. 30; the Cheez-It Bowl in Orlando, Fla., on Dec. 29; the TaxSlayer Gator Bowl in Jacksonville, Fla., on Jan. 2; and the Military Bowl presented by Northrop Grumman in Annapolis, Md., on Dec. 28.
The ACC also has a likely available tie-in with the Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl in Tampa, Fla., on Dec. 26.
Tie-ins with the Tony The Tiger Sun Bowl in El Paso, Texas; the New Era Pinstripe Bowl in New York; the Fenway Bowl in Boston; and the San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl have been wiped away after each were canceled by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Here’s where Virginia’s win carries significance. The Eagles dropped to 5-5 in the ACC with the loss, and like NC State it is done with the season. That means no team in the ACC other than Clemson, Miami, NC State, North Carolina and Notre Dame will finish with more than five conference wins, whereas each of those programs will have at least six.
NC State has finished with a school-record seven ACC wins. UNC, currently 6-3 in the conference, would need to beat Miami, who is 7-1 in the league, to join the group with all having at least seven conference wins.
Thus if both Clemson and Notre Dame are in the College Football Playoff, and another ACC team (Miami-UNC winner) is playing in the Orange Bowl, NC State then becomes one of the league’s top two remaining bowl options along with the defeated team in the Heels-Hurricanes showdown.
Odds are the Pack would have found itself in a similar scenario regardless of the BC-Virginia outcome, but the Cavaliers' win makes it more of a formality.
Thus, that begs the question, where will the Pack be bowling?
Previously, the ACC had tiers for its bowl allotments, but in the league's release in January announcing its new contractual obligations, it only said that, “The ACC and its bowl partners will make team selections based on several factors, including geographic proximity, avoiding repeat appearances and matchups, and regular-season win-loss records.”
If tradition holds, the Cheez-It Bowl, the TaxSlayer Gator Bowl and the Duke’s Mayo Bowl — which all carry contracts with Power Five leagues against the ACC — would be higher on the pecking order than the Military Bowl, which pits the ACC versus the American Athletic Conference.
Here’s a breakdown of how the three likely bowl destinations play out:
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl in Jacksonville, Fla., on Jan. 2.
If repeat appearances are an issue, then NC State’s best bets may be the Cheez-It Bowl or the Duke’s Mayo Bowl. On New Year’s Eve in 2018, NC State lost to Texas A&M in the Gator Bowl in Jacksonville.
If Clemson and Notre Dame are in the CFP, and Miami/UNC is in the Orange Bowl, odds are that the Gator Bowl would fight to have the leftover between the loser of Saturday’s game. The Hurricanes may be the dream, as it has not played in Jacksonville since 2000, but odds more likely favor UNC.
Even if the Heels pull off the upset over Miami, it may not be enough to jump it past the Hurricanes in the CFP rankings and land in the Orange Bowl.
However, could NC State find its way to Jacksonville again? It’s still possible, even if probably not the first preference of the ACC and the bowl. Joe Giglio, the well-sourced co-host of "The OG Show" on 99.9 The Fan, believes this is actually where NC State ends up if there are two ACC teams in the CFP.
UNC is also likely to be a popular pick for bowls in Orlando and Charlotte. The dominoes could fall different, sending the Heels there instead of Jacksonville — in which case, the Gator Bowl officials would have to debate trying to have NC State for a second time in three years or taking a squad like Boston College or Virginia.
As for the opponent, it would be an SEC team. Like the ACC, the SEC pools its bowls after certain obligations are met, but Ole Miss, LSU and Missouri have been some of the popular picks to represent the league in bowl projections.
Cheez-It Bowl in Orlando, Fla., on Dec. 29
There’s a reason why this bowl is currently the most popular pick for NC State’s bowl destination. The other potential options are Miami, which played in this bowl in both 2013 and 2016 and has not been in Jacksonville since 2000, and UNC, who played there in 2015. NC State has not been to Orlando since 2010. Thus, the Wolfpack may represent an attractive option with a fresher face.
The Wolfpack’s placement here also looks ideal for the other bowls, mainly freeing up the Gator Bowl to land either UNC or Miami.
The Duke’s Mayo Bowl would likely prefer to have either NC State or UNC in its bowl, but given that it will have less crowd size due to restrictions, it is unlikely to worry about ticket sales much, and it may prefer to hold the invite to the in-state schools for a year when it could pack the stadium.
The Cheez-It Bowl would pit an ACC team against a member from the Big 12. Thus far, the two most popular picks to represent the league are Oklahoma State and Texas, the latter setting up first-year NC State offensive coordinator Tim Beck in a matchup against his most previous employer.
Duke's Mayo Bowl in Charlotte, N.C., on Dec. 30
The Duke’s Mayo Bowl’s location makes them a potential compromise of sorts for the ACC. There is no question that there is a drop-off after the combo of either UNC/Miami and NC State taking two spots for these three bowls. If both Clemson and Notre Dame are in the CFP, it’s possible that a Wake Forest or Virginia could find themselves here, or maybe even Boston College.
The most likely scenario that sends NC State to Charlotte would be if Notre Dame tops Clemson in the ACC Championship Game, Clemson is then sent to the Orange Bowl and that frees up both UNC and Miami for the two Florida bowls. At that point, NC State could well find itself in Charlotte. This is what Giglio forecasts would happen if Clemson is in the Orange Bowl.
Even in that hypothetical, it’s still possible that one of the Florida bowls, specifically Orlando, could push for NC State or the Duke’s Mayo could advocate for UNC.
The Big Ten is the opponent this year in Charlotte since it’s an even year. In odd years, it will be the SEC. Maryland has been a popular pick, but Iowa and Penn State have also been mentioned as possibilities.
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